NFL Parlay Picks
Got myself back to .500 last week. As mentioned, I’ll be keeping the parlays a little more conservative, aiming for the +300 to +350 range.
Trying not to let ego get the best of me, I desperately want to triple down on the Daniel Jones crash and burn, but fool me thrice…or something like that. Anyway, let’s get into it. There’s money to be made, I’m sure you’ve already skipped over this part to the bets, so really, I could say whatever I want here. Pineapple belongs on pizza, yes, I said it.
Parlay #1 (+343)
- Josh Allen 20+ Alt Rushing Yards (-225)
- Omarion Hampton 80+ Alt Rushing + Receiving Yards (-210)
- Daniel Jones 225+ Alt Passing Yards (+343)
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills – Josh Allen 20+ Alt Rushing Yards (-225)
Josh Allen has hit this number in every game so far this year, going against one of the worst teams in football. To be truthful, I’m almost nervous that the game is done by halftime and he takes it easy or is pulled out before the 4th quarter. However, it might shock you to learn that the Saints are actually league average both in pass and run defense. Whilst Cameron Jordan no longer strikes fear in the hearts of opposing quarterbacks, the pass rush should be able to collapse a pocket or two, leading to a signature Josh Allen scramble. He also ranks second in the league in the number of designed runs called. Hell, he might hit 20 yards in one play.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants – Omarion Hampton 80+ Alt Rushing + Receiving Yards (-210)
With Najee Harris off to IR, we got our first taste of Omarion Hampton as the top dog in town last week versus the Broncos. He did not disappoint, 129 all-purpose yards, against one of the tougher defenses in the league. The Giants have a fierce pass rush; but they rank 31st in run defense, and they have to worry about Justin Herbert’s cannon that could pop off a 60-yard TD at any given moment. I like Hampton to go off this week and be one of the first rookies to start living up to his hype and/or fantasy expectations.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams – Daniel Jones 225+ Alt Passing Yards (+343)
Whelp, if you can’t beat ’em, handcuff your success to a QB who has caused infinite pain and misery to team fanbases join ’em. Yes, that’s the saying, I’m sure of it. Like I said in the intro, I want nothing more than to set fire to the ‘Daniel Jones can play’ bandwagon, but here we are. The Rams’ secondary is a potential weak spot in this game, and Jonathon Taylor is going to keep boxes loaded ever since he turned the clock back to 2021. Someone should remind him that we are living in 2025, but until they do.
Parlay #2 (+293)
- Lamar Jackson +40 Alt Rushing Yards (-182)
- D’Andre Swift 40+ Alt Rushing Yards (-200)
- Micah Parsons to record a Sack (-144)
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs – Lamar Jackson +40 Alt Rushing Yards (-182)
It’s odd to think that by Sunday night, either the Ravens or the Chiefs are going to be 1 – 3. In years passed, I’d have my money on the Chiefs coming through with a clutch win here. But in 2025, the Chiefs are anything but a sure thing. I may be wishcasting here, but I foresee the Ravens winning this one with some authority, announcing that they will not be taken lightly. The Chiefs need fixing, and help is on the way in Rashee Rice. But this is week 4, and the Baltimore Ravens have a QB who is going to put the team on his back and will them to victory. Oh, if my rambling motivational Ted talk didn’t inspire you, Lamar has rushed for an average of 85 yards per game vs the Chiefs since entering the league, and our hearts.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders – D’Andre Swift 40+ Alt Rushing Yards
I love leaning on Swift as a safe bet, because he truly is a value in volume back. Even if he is going for 3 YPC, I trust him to get the rock 14 times and hit the over here. Especially against a Raiders team that ranks 18th in Run defense. I can see Caleb trying to get things going through the air, to stamp out any talk of a fluke last week, but against Maxx Crosby, the Raideriest Raider to ever Raider, he needs an established run game to keep them from blitzing the heck out of him.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys – Micah Parsons to record a Sack (-144)
I had to do this one. The narrative alone is going to drive Micah, who is a human wrecking ball already, into a frenzy. Going against a tough defense in the Packers, I’d expect Dak to hold onto the ball as he has been so far (ranked 20th in time to throw amongst active starters). This might be the one to undo me, I am, after all, a Packers fan and want this as much as the rest of the NFL world. But it feels inevitable. Side quest, speaking of motivated sackers, Kenny Clark is +300 to record a sack. He is a talented dude, and I’m sure would love nothing more than to show the Packers they shouldn’t have included him in that trade. Spoiler alert: they did the right thing, but I’m tempted to get a slide of that +300.
[the_ad id=”105251″]Running Tracker
Week 1: 3/6
Week 2: 2/6
Week 3: 4/6
Overall: 9/18
