NFL Power Rankings
The 2026 NFL season is less than 10 days away! Nobody has played a real game yet, so let’s be honest about what this rankings list actually is. It’s ground zero for a weekly article for this season. Not much to go on, so I’ve put together this rankings list based on Vegas Super Bowl odds, offseason headlines, roster moves, and gut feelings.
Week 1 wins will shake this power rankings list up a lot, so make sure you bookmark this page for Gridiron Experts’ weekly article.
Super Bowl odds: +500
The Rams enter the season as the only team in single-digit implied Super Bowl odds, and it is not close. Myles Garrett, lining up next to Aaron Donald, will be impossible to keep in check. Two and a half years after walking away, Donald unretired in late August on a one-year deal worth up to $30 million, reportedly nudged along by McVay asking his opinion on the Garrett trade. Pair that front with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and a receiving corps built to score fast, and the Rams enter as the clearest Super Bowl favorite in the league.
Super Bowl odds: +1100
The defending champions get top three treatment even with real change around the roster, because that is what winning it all buys you. However, that will change fast if they drop their home opener.
Sam Darnold heads into the year as the guy who finally delivered, and the Seahawks open the season hosting the Patriots in a Super Bowl LX rematch. Books have Seattle fourth in the field behind the Rams, Bills, and Ravens, which tells you oddsmakers respect last year but don’t assume a repeat is automatic, which is fair. Winning back-to-back in this league is brutally hard.
Super Bowl odds: +1000
Buffalo has the league’s highest projected win total, trailing only the Rams. New coaching staff, new stadium energy, and the same Josh Allen who has spent years knocking on the door but can’t get in. The optimism here isn’t blind hope; this is a loaded roster that’s been agonizingly close. The question that follows Buffalo every single year is whether this is finally the season the door swings open instead of slamming shut in January.
Books like their chances more than almost anyone not named Los Angeles.
Super Bowl odds: +2000
The Broncos made the AFC title game a year ago, and the betting market treats them like Russel Wilson is still under center. In my opinion, Bo Nix was an injury away from playing in the Super Bowl, and the offseason has not exactly given them credit for it. Both AFC finalists, Denver and New England, sit at longer than 16 to 1 odds this year, which says more about how loaded the AFC looks than anything Denver did wrong. Tough test week one against the Chiefs; if they win, I’ll keep them at 4.
Super Bowl odds: +1100
Another AFC contender walking into a coaching change with real pressure attached. Baltimore has had the talent for years, and the front office clearly decided the staff needed shaking up to finally get this roster over the hump. The Ravens land in the second tier of Super Bowl odds alongside Buffalo, Seattle, and the rest of the true contenders, so the market still believes in the roster despite all the transition and change.
The margin for a slow start here feels thinner than usual given the expectations already baked in. Most NFL Pick’em guys are saying the first week looks easy, but Ravens vs Colts has been a popular upset game.
Super Bowl odds: +1600
The Patriots played one good quarter in the Super Bowl, and the schedule makers felt they deserve a second chance as they open the year on the road against Seattle in a rematch of Super Bowl LX.
A new weapon at receiver gives the offense another gear, but the overall 2026 schedule does the Patriots no favors. A team that took a real step forward last year now has to prove it against a much tougher slate, and that is a fair test for whether last season was a launching point or a ceiling.
Super Bowl odds: +1600
Every piece of the puzzle appears to be in place for the Chargers, making this one of the bigger high-pressure spots in the NFL… or at least it should be. Justin Herbert has the weapons, the coaching, and the health to finally make a good run and win a playoff game.
The Chargers open as 11.5-point favorites over Arizona in Week 1, the largest Week 1 spread in over a decade, which tells you exactly how the market views the gap between the AFC’s contenders and its rebuilding teams.
Super Bowl odds: +1600
A new play caller changes the shape of this offense, but the calling card here remains an elite defense that buys Jalen Hurts time to adjust to a new system without the offense needing to be perfect in September.
Philadelphia sits comfortably in the second tier of Super Bowl odds, tied with New England, the Chargers, and a handful of other teams the market considers real threats but not quite favorites.
Super Bowl odds: +1800
The offense is loaded again, full stop. What decides whether Detroit is a top-five team or a top-ten team by December is the defense, which needs to prove it can hold up against the exact caliber of opponent that ended their season the last two years. There is no shortage of belief in this roster. Week one is a sneaky game against a young Saints team. They’ll need to take care of business if they want to move up this power rankings list.
Super Bowl odds: +1600
Has the dynasty actually cracked, or did last year just look that way from the outside? Books still have Kansas City firmly in the second tier of contenders, so nobody is writing this team off yet. The path back runs through the running game, which needs to be good enough to take pressure off an offense that has occasionally looked a step slower than the version that won three of the last six Super Bowls. This is either a bounce-back year or the first real evidence that the window closed.
Super Bowl odds: +1800
Houston enters the year with what is regarded as the best defense in the league, and that alone buys this team a top-half ranking before the offense answers a single question. However, there are real questions on offense heading into Week 1. C.J. Stroud saw ghosts in the playoffs last year and played terribly. He turned down a massive contract extension; he’s betting on himself to return to his rookie-of-the-year form.
Super Bowl odds: +1800
Injuries are the entire story of where San Francisco lands to start the season. This is a roster that, healthy, ranks meaningfully higher than 12. The talent has never been the issue in recent years; availability has. Until that changes, the preseason ranking has to reflect what is actually on the field in September rather than what the depth chart looks like on paper when everyone is healthy.
Super Bowl odds: +1800
Green Bay’s offseason got noisy fast. The situation involving Josh Jacobs, who landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List in late August, is a real distraction heading into the year. I feel it’s fair to knock the Packers down the board until that resolves cleanly.
Vegas has the Packers in the same tier as San Francisco and Houston, so the roster still grades out as a contender. The start of the season is about whether the locker room can tune out the noise.
Super Bowl odds: +2500
This power ranking spot will draw the most complaints, and that is fine. Chicago has the pieces to play like a top five team; this spot reflects patience more than doubt. The Bears need to show me in live snaps that they can win big games and take the next step.
Super Bowl odds: +2200
Cincinnati has built a reputation as a team that needs a few weeks to find its rhythm at the start of the season, and until that changes, this ranking spot reflects the pattern rather than the ceiling. Prove it early, and this team jumps. The talent on this roster has never been in question; the slow starts have.
Super Bowl odds: +2200
Dallas looks better on paper than it has in years, but that paper has burned this fanbase before. Until the Cowboys prove they can handle the games they are supposed to win, this ranking holds at 16. That is not a knock on the talent level so much as a demand for the follow-through that has been missing.
Super Bowl odds: +3000
This is a make-or-break year for Trevor Lawrence, and the entire trajectory of the Jaguars rides on the answer. The talent around him has improved in fits and starts over the last few seasons. What has been missing is the quarterback play matching the moment, and this is the year that story either turns or the conversation in Jacksonville changes entirely.
Super Bowl odds: +6000
Buckle up. New head coach John Harbaugh takes over a rollercoaster roster that finished last in its division despite having genuine talent. Led by second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart and a defense that can hang with anyone on a given Sunday, this team could realistically make the playoffs. It could also just as realistically finish with three wins. That range is what makes the Giants must-watch television every single week, for better or worse.
Super Bowl odds: +4500
Kyler Murray landed in Minnesota after his release from Arizona and beat out J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in training camp. The hype has already started building around the fit with Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Consider this ranking a challenge, not a dismissal. Win games, and the Vikings move up the rankings list fast.
I’m not buying the Murray addition. I don’t see this being a smooth transition.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
A lot changed in Tampa this offseason, and this could go either direction depending on how the new pieces gel. That uncertainty is genuinely fun to watch play out rather than a reason for pessimism. The Buccaneers have been competitive in a wide-open division for a few years running now, and there is no obvious reason that changes just because the roster looks different.
Super Bowl odds: +8000
A young team with real upside, built around second-year quarterback Tyler Shough after he went 5-4 as a starter down the stretch last season. New Orleans added Travis Etienne in free agency to bolster the backfield alongside Alvin Kamara. The Super Bowl odds are appropriately long for a team still finding its identity under a new coaching staff, but a defense that ranked well against the pass gives this roster a real foundation to build from.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
Daniel Jones was great in Indianapolis last season, and the team fell apart without him. That split says everything about where this roster stands. Regain that version of Jones for a full season, and the Colts are a real problem for the AFC South. Lose him again, and the floor here drops fast. Everything about this ranking hinges on QB health.
Super Bowl odds: +5000
Aaron Rodgers is back for what he has already confirmed will be his final NFL season, reuniting with new head coach Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh. A stubborn ceiling has followed this pairing before, and until that changes, a 9-8 finish feels like the realistic outcome. Rodgers turning back the clock for one last run would be a story. Betting against the pattern repeating itself is the safer read heading into September.
Super Bowl odds: +6500
Washington is far better than these odds suggest, and the gap between the ranking and the betting market is worth watching closely. There is still plenty to prove before anyone moves this team into true contender territory, but the roster is not nearly as far off as a first glance at the number implies.
Super Bowl odds: +9000
I expect a good season out of Carolina, despite a brutal early schedule that could bury the record before the roster gets a fair chance to show what it is. The talent trajectory is pointing up; the schedule makers just did not do the Panthers any early favors.
Super Bowl odds: +12500
A young roster looking to take the next real step after a rebuilding stretch. There is no illusion of contending, but the pieces being developed matter more right now than the win total. Progress is the only metric that counts for Tennessee this season.
Super Bowl odds: +10000
This team goes exactly as far as its quarterback depth carries it, no further and no less. That single variable determines almost everything else about how the Falcons’ season plays out, for better or worse, and it is worth tracking every single week.
Super Bowl odds: +15000
Kirk Cousins gets the early nod as the veteran bridge option, but Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft and Heisman winner out of Indiana, is waiting in the wings.
General manager John Spytek has been clear that he does not want to rush his rookie quarterback into the fire. Expect that patience to run out by midseason. A switch under center by around Week 5 feels like the realistic call once the losses start piling up.
Super Bowl odds: +20000
Deshaun Watson was named the Week 1 starter over Shedeur Sanders, but this remains one of the most crowded quarterback rooms in the league. Expect to see multiple arms under center again this season. Until one of them takes the job and runs, the franchise stays stuck in neutral.
Super Bowl odds: +20000
The Jets traded for Geno Smith after the Raiders moved on from him, and the irony here is real. New York will probably win more games than a team drafting for its future wants to win, muddying what should be a clean rebuilding year with just enough competence to mess up its own draft position.
Super Bowl odds: +750000
Arizona enters the season dead last on the Super Bowl odds board after releasing Kyler Murray in March and handing the offense to Jacoby Brissett, with rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, the team’s top pick in this year’s draft, representing one of the few bright spots on a rebuilding roster. Wasting Love’s potential behind a team still finding its footing is the real risk here, not the win total.
Super Bowl odds: +500000
The Dolphins carry the lowest win total on the board this season, and the roster reads like a team that has already turned its attention to next year’s draft. Tanking is not an official strategy anyone in that building will say out loud. The moves this offseason tell the story anyway.
