Seahawks at Broncos Player Props
Gridiron Experts has been working on an in-house betting model for some time. We soft-launched it last week; the Model is called OutPlay. We covered it in more detail in our Best Bet article last week. We shared the OutPlay picks and predictions with the team. James Bryer, who said he was in a slump with picking games, dove headfirst in. He used all but a few of the spread picks for his NFL picks and went 13-2. That’s an exciting start, but we’re trying to keep our excitement in check.
This week, the model was back-tested and rolled out for Week 6; here are some of the prop bets for tonight’s Thursday night game. Outplay has seven Overs on its card for tonight’s game, spread across five Seahawks and Broncos players. The model only takes an Over when its projection sits well above the posted line, usually 30% or more. That pushes it toward small lines on role players, where books set the number to a player’s floor and leave room above it. Lines below were posted Thursday morning and may move before kickoff.
Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Darnold isn’t a runner, but he doesn’t have to be. Since coming back in Week 3, he has 5, 6, and 5 rushing yards. That clears 4.5 every time. Outplay projects 6.1 yards. A short scramble or a sneak should do it.
Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Emanuel Wilson leads the Seattle backfield, but Holani has had at least three carries every week. He has topped 13.5 twice in five games, plus it’s a short week, which usually means the RB2 gets a litter more work in. Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out again, so Holani stays the clear No. 2 back. Outplay projects 18.1 yards, well above the line.
Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (+102)
Seattle schemes the ball to Shaheed on jet sweeps. He has three carries this season, including a 33-yard day against the Chargers in Week 4. Outplay projects 3.3 yards, and at plus money, a single carry is all this bet needs. The 1.5 line at -114 is the safer play.
Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-113) and/or Over 0.5 Receptions (-130)
Denver’s secondary is banged up. Pat Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga are both out, and corner Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury. Horton is a part-time player, but when he sees targets, he produces. He had 48 yards on three catches in Week 3. Outplay projects 7.4 yards, and one catch should clear 3.5. The receptions Over is the lower-risk version of the same bet.
Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Seattle will be without linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas, which thins out its run defense. Harvey splits work with J.K. Dobbins, and with Jonah Coleman out, he has the backup role to himself. He has 18 and 25 rushing yards in two of his four games. Outplay projects 16.4 yards.
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
This is the thinnest edge on the card. Mims hasn’t topped 10 yards in a game yet. Pat Bryant is on injured reserve, though, which opens up snaps in the Denver receiver room. Outplay projects 12.7 yards, so it’s a small lean. Shop for 10.5, which Caesars was offering this morning
