Gridiron Experts is a fantasy football website, but we also create sports betting content and give away free NFL picks. We partner with Tally Sight, which provides a pick’em platform that lets our writers easily make NFL picks for our readers. They also track our NFL Pick ‘Em progress throughout the year.
Free NFL Picks
NEW!! Gridiron Experts introduces an in-house betting model called OutPlay
We’re very excited to share FREE NFL picks for the rest of the season using our brand-new betting model. The plan was to roll out this new betting model in Week 6, after collecting enough data from the 2026 season, but after a 5-star pick suggesting Buccaneers +8, we have decided to roll it out this week
Read About Our Week 5 Picks Here
How OutPlay Picks Games: A Two-Sided Coin
Every point spread has two stories. One is told by history: what usually happens to teams in this kind of spot. The other is told by the matchup: what should happen when these two teams line up on Sunday. Outplay reads both, and it only gets loud when they agree.
Side one: Trends
The trends side learns from NFL games going back to 2018. A statistical model tests which factors have predicted covering the spread, such as team strength, recent form, rest, home field, and how the line compares to what the numbers say. It isn’t a list of hand-picked “this team is 7-1 in this spot” angles. Each factor is weighted by how much it has mattered in past results. The output is a pick against the spread and a 1-to-5 star rating for how strongly history leans that way.
Side two: Matchups
The matchup side looks only at this week’s game. Outplay rates every offense and defense by efficiency per play, then adjusts for who is actually on the field: injuries, starter changes, and the trenches, where pass protection meets pass rush. It asks how this offense will do against this defense, projects a margin, and compares it to the spread. That produces its own pick and its own 1-to-5 stars.
Where the coin lands
Trends alone can be stale, because a pattern that held for years may not fit this roster. Matchups alone can overreact to a few games of data. Each side covers the other’s blind spot.
When both sides pick the same team and both rate the game at three stars or higher, that’s an agreement pick. These are the games Outplay puts forward as its top plays. When the two sides split, or only one is confident, we pass. Skipping a game is part of the method.
Lines move, and players get hurt, so Outplay reruns through the week as injury reports, depth charts, and inactives come in. The final check comes close to kickoff. Once a game starts, its pick is locked, so what you see is what we called before the game.
How We Make Our NFL Picks
Good NFL handicapping isn’t about hot takes. It’s about process. Here’s the framework our staff uses every week:
We start with the number, not the team. Point spreads and moneylines are set by the market to balance action, not to predict the final score. A -110 line on either side of a spread means the sportsbook is charging roughly 10% vig, so before you even look at the matchup, you need to understand what you’re actually paying to bet.
We look for trap games. Some of the most “obvious” picks each week are set up that way on purpose: a big favorite coming off a statement win, a public team getting more line movement than the sharp money suggests. We flag these explicitly rather than just picking favorites.
We track bounce-back spots. Teams coming off a bad loss, especially a blowout or a game with a controversial finish, often respond differently than the market expects. We weigh recent emotional and physical factors (short weeks, travel, injuries) alongside the raw stats.
We separate straight-up winners from against-the-spread value. Picking who wins is a different exercise from picking who covers. We give you both every week so you can bet the way that fits your bankroll and risk tolerance.
Who makes these picks?
Our staff handicappers, most of whom have 15+ years of experience covering the NFL. Picks are tracked publicly through our partnership with Tally Sight, so our win-loss record is transparent rather than self-reported.
How accurate are your NFL picks?
Our performance is tracked live through the Tally Sight widget above, covering straight-up record, against-the-spread record, and total record. We update it in real time rather than only publicizing our best weeks.
Is Gridiron Experts a sportsbook?
No. We're a content and advisory site: we publish picks, odds comparisons, and strategy, but all bets are placed through your own licensed sportsbook. We link out to odds comparisons so you can find the best number, not to take wagers ourselves.
Do you only cover fantasy football, or betting too?
Both. Gridiron Experts started as a fantasy football site, and our betting picks and NFL odds coverage grew out of the same weekly research our fantasy rankings are built on.
What's the difference between a straight-up pick and a pick against the spread?
A straight-up (SU) pick is simply who we think wins the game outright. A pick against the spread (ATS) factors in the point spread, so we might pick a team to lose the game but still "cover" if they lose by fewer points than the spread. We publish both every week because they answer different questions.
What does "ATS" mean in NFL picks?
ATS stands for "against the spread." An ATS record shows how often a pick would have won once the point spread is factored in, as opposed to a straight-up record, which only tracks who won the actual game.
Which is more profitable: straight-up or ATS betting?
Neither is inherently more profitable; it depends on the bet type you're placing. If you're betting the spread, your record should be measured ATS. If you're betting moneylines, straight-up accuracy is what matters. We break out both so you can match the pick to the bet you're actually making.
What does a point spread number mean?
The spread is the number of points a favorite is expected to win by (or an underdog is expected to lose by). A team favored by -3.5 needs to win by 4+ points to "cover"; the underdog covers by losing by 3 or fewer, or winning outright.
What does -110 mean on a bet?
-110 is standard odds notation showing the "vig" or "juice" a sportsbook charges. At -110, you'd need to bet $110 to win $100 profit. It's built in on most spread and total bets regardless of which side you take.
What's a moneyline bet?
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team wins the game outright, with no point spread involved. Favorites carry negative odds (risk more to win less); underdogs carry positive odds (risk less to win more).
Why do lines move between when they're posted and kickoff?
Lines move based on where money is being bet, injury news, weather, and lineup changes. A line moving toward one side usually means sportsbooks are balancing action, not necessarily that the "smart money" agrees with the move, which is part of why we publish our picks early in the week.
What is a "trap game" in NFL betting?
A trap game is a matchup where the "obvious" pick, usually a heavy favorite off a big win, or a public team getting inflated support, is more vulnerable than the line suggests. We call these out specifically in our weekly picks rather than only listing our top plays.
How much of my bankroll should I bet per game?
Our staff recommends risking 1-3% of your total bankroll on any single game. It's a simple rule, but it's the single biggest factor in surviving a losing stretch without going bust.
We don't encourage betting and advise our readers to bet responsiably
Should I follow expert picks exactly, or do my own research too?
We'd recommend using expert picks as a second opinion, not a replacement for your own read on a game. We publish our reasoning alongside every pick specifically so you can weigh it against what you already know.
What's "shopping" your odds, and does it really matter?
Shopping odds means comparing the same bet across multiple sportsbooks before placing it, since lines aren't identical everywhere. A half-point of spread or a few cents of moneyline seems small on one bet, but it compounds significantly over a full season of wagers.
What's the difference between a parlay and a straight bet?
A straight bet is a single wager on one outcome. A parlay combines multiple bets into one; every leg has to hit for the parlay to pay out, which means higher potential payouts but meaningfully lower odds of winning than any single leg on its own.
Do you publish NFL parlay picks?
Yes. Alongside our single-game picks are on this page, but we publish parlay combinations most weeks, built from picks our staff has the most conviction in rather than just stacking random favorites together.
What are player props, and where can I find them?
Player props are bets on individual player performance (passing yards, receptions, touchdowns, etc.) rather than the outcome of the game itself. Our Player Prop Finder lets you search props by player, team, or stat category, including Thursday Night Football props each week.
Do you have NFL DFS picks too?
Yes. During the season we publish weekly DFS-focused picks and GPP lineup-building tips alongside our straight-up and spread picks, for readers building daily fantasy lineups rather than placing traditional bets.
Do you cover Super Bowl prop bets?
Yes. Closer to the Super Bowl, we publish a full breakdown of both the standard props (MVP, first score, etc.) and the novelty "crazy" prop bets Super Bowl week is known for (coin toss, national anthem length, and similar).
