Zero RB Draft Strategy in 2019

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Zero RB Draft Strategy 2019

Football season is creeping upon us and that means fantasy football draft season is even closer. I think the draft is the main difference between having a great season and having your season crumble in front of you. The draft sets up your main roster construction and fills your roster for most of the season. Mess up the draft, and you will be like The Red Viper before The Mountain gets his hands on him. Master the draft and you will be looking down on all of your league mates like you are Cersei looking down on Daenerys before beheading Missandei.

As the most exciting time of year nears, everyone is going to be trying to figure out the best strategy possible for their draft. Each person is looking for an edge over their opponents. Several people are wanting to zig when the rest of the league zags. The best way to gain an advantage is to do as much research as possible and be prepared with several different draft strategies. One strategy worth considering in 2019 is Zero RB or Modified Zero RB.

As you can see the landscape hasn’t changed much from last season’s top 30 ADP to this year’s ADP.

Zero RB Strengths

Current ADP has only 4 receivers being selected in the first round. Those players are DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones. It is obvious at this point that if you get a top 4 maybe top 5 pick you will most likely be selecting a running back. With a pick that high, I would also recommend avoiding the Zero RB draft strategy. This strategy is going to work best if you have a mid to late-round pick. If you land a pick between 9 and 12 you are set up perfectly to execute this strategy. Your first two rounds can start Julio Jones and Odell Beckham or Michael Thomas and Juju Smith-Schuster. Any combination of those 4 receivers is going to be dynamic for your roster.

As you near your 3rd round selection, a guy like Stefon Diggs and possibly A.J. Green could be options and that could be followed up in round 4 with Julian Edelman or Brandin Cooks. A start like this has the potential to put you so far ahead of your opponents at this position. Sitting there for you in round 5 could be James White, Tarik Cohen, or Derrius Guice. Cohen and White are perfect Zero RB running back options. They are pass-catching backs for their respective teams and are capable of having huge weeks at any time.

With a 5 round start of Thomas, Smith-Schuster, Diggs, Cooks, and Cohen you are looking at 4 receivers that finished in the top 13 in 2018 and a running back that finished as RB11. All 5 players scored over 230 points on the season in 2018. Keep in mind, there were only 30 non-quarterbacks to score 230 points in 2018 and you were able to grab 5 of those players when most will only be getting 2 or maybe 3.

 

 

Zero RB Weaknesses

Arguably the biggest weakness to this strategy is the lack of depth a Zero RB drafter will have at running back. The depth at running back is more likely to consist of backs with potential as opposed to running backs with guaranteed touches and a known role. A quick look back at the 2016 season is a perfect example of what can go wrong. 2016 saw only 3 of the first 6 receivers selected reach 200 points. Additionally, only half of the 14 receivers taken in the first two rounds finished in the top 23. The running back position came back with a vengeance this year and it crushed those that did not draft running back early. Running back by committee had taken over the league for a few seasons but we are starting to see a shift back to bell-cow runners. With the shift away from RBBC running backs have gotten their value back along the way.

Wide receiver is such a deep position this year. There are so many guys that can produce at a high level in 2019. In 2018, 7 receivers produced 300 points compared to 5 running backs. 22 receivers topped 200 points while only 16 running backs were able to score that many. A bigger leap is seen at 150 points where 43 receivers reached the mark compared to 31 running backs. The biggest difference is in the number of players having fantasy relevance at some point during the season and scoring 100 fantasy points. 73 receivers did this and only 47 runners accomplished this task. It is easier to find receivers that can produce from time to time than it is running backs.

Another thing that can derail a Zero RB draft strategy is when several people utilize it. The advantage gained from being able to draft 3-4 stud receivers can shrink when the receiver pool dwindles faster than usual because multiple people are using this strategy. This also brings up a new strategy that began to form last year. It has been referred to as Modified Zero RB.

What is Modified Zero RB?

This is a strategy for those people that are able to land a top 4 or 5 pick. It means the drafter takes a stud running back with their first-round pick and then attacks the receiver and tight end position. The stud at the top of the draft is too good to pass up and the value that can be had at receiver after that is great. Utilizing the Modified Zero RB draft strategy and current ADP, a player could draft Ezekiel Elliott, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Lockett with the first 5 picks. Not a fan of these players? Here is a shortlist of other options at the same draft position that you could have.

• 1st round – Saquan Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara
• 2nd round – TY Hilton, Zach Ertz, Mike Evans
• 3rd round – Amari Cooper, George Kittle
• 4th round – Kenny Golladay, Calvin Ridley
• 5th round – Sammy Watkins, Chris Godwin, Jarvis Landry, OJ Howard

As you can see, there are several strong options at receiver which makes this strategy very dangerous for opposing teams. When you start your draft this way, you fill out the rest of your roster just like you would with Zero RB. Pick pass-catching backs and guys with potential to take over a backfield.

Best Draft Strategy

Ultimately your draft position is going to make a big difference in the strategy that you will utilize as you enter the draft. With that being said, just be prepared. Study, know your league, think on your toes, and be ready to change your strategy as the draft happens. Both the Zero RB draft strategy and the Modified Zero RB draft strategy are viable options to bring you success.

My Strategy

I have done several best ball drafts already this season and have yet to get a top 4 pick. I have drafted Zero RB in most of the drafts and been pretty happy with the results. I have not entered these drafts with that intention, I have just taken best available players early on and it has lent itself to a Zero RB approach. I will continue to approach each draft with a best available strategy and adjust as the draft moves along. If I land a top 4 pick, I will most definitely use the Modified Zero RB draft strategy as I think it brings the most bang for your buck.