Gridiron Experts

WR Target Analysis Entering Week 11

WR Target Analysis Entering Week 11The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Kenny Golladay led all wide receivers in targets with 13. Zay Jones (0.44) and Corey Davis (0.42) were the only receivers who account for 40 plus percent of their team’s target share. Josh Gordon led all receivers in Air Yards with 195, but was only able to convert them into 81 receiving yards.

Tyler Boyd (3.61) led all receivers with four or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Davis (0.98) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will share statistical observations regarding one to two players from each tier that you should know about heading into Week 11.

 

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
1 Kenny Golladay DET 10 13 6 78 178 19.8
2 Brandin Cooks LAR 10 12 10 100 74 26.9
2 Julian Edelman NE 10 12 9 104 76 19.64
2 Josh Gordon NE 10 12 4 81 195 12.1
  • Kenny Golladay is averaging 6.8 targets per game this season. He is a receiver I mentioned in last week’s column as a bounce-back candidate. Golladay set a career high in targets last week. This was the first game he was targeted 10 or more times since Week 1. Golladay has averaged 5.3 receptions, 75.6 receiving yards, and 0.86 touchdowns per game in seven career games with five or more targets. ESPN Insider Adam Schefter reported Lions receiver Marvin Jones is day to day with a bone bruise. It is possible that he misses Sunday’s game against the Panthers. The Lions have a short week in Week 12 due to their annual Thanksgiving game.
  • Brandin Cooks (20), Julian Edelman (22), and Josh Gordon (22) are three of seven wide receivers who have been targeted 20 or more times over their team’s last two games. The other four are Michael Thomas (23), Odell Beckham (22), Larry Fitzgerald (22), Julio Jones (21), and Corey Davis (20). Gordon (364) has accumulated the highest number of Air Yards amongst this group over that time frame.
Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
5 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 10 11 4 73 164 23.3
5 Julio Jones ATL 10 11 7 107 105 23.7
5 Zay Jones BUF 10 11 8 93 124 23.3
5 Devante Parker MIA 10 11 5 43 112 9.3
  • It has been difficult to have confidence in any Bills receivers this season. Zay Jones actually leads the team in targets with 51 heading into Week 11. He is an excellent buy low, in my opinion, from a dynasty perspective and took advantage of a vulnerable Jets secondary. Jones is someone to target in deeper formats if he happens to be available.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
9 Tyreek Hill KC 10 10 7 117 104 32.7
9 Corey Davis TEN 10 10 7 125 148 25.5
9 Amari Cooper DAL 10 10 6 75 119 13.5
9 Danny Amendola MIA 10 10 7 72 52 14.2
9 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 10 10 6 50 60 11
9 Dede Westbrook JAX 10 10 5 30 43 9.3
  • Corey Davis is averaging 8.4 targets per game this season. He is one of five wide receivers tied for the highest number of red zone targets since Week 7. Davis, Amari Cooper, Fitzgerald, Mike Evans, and T.Y. Hilton are all tied with 5 each. The Titans offense is starting to come together under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur now that quarterback Marcus Mariota is healthy.

 

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
15 Keenan Allen LAC 10 9 6 57 108 17.7
16 Allen Robinson CHI 10 8 6 133 116 31.3
16 Michael Thomas NO 10 8 8 70 41 27
16 DeSean Jackson TB 10 8 5 67 121 11.7
16 Alshon Jeffery PHI 10 8 4 48 97 8.8
16 Cooper Kupp LAR 10 8 5 39 72 8.9
16 Mohamed Sanu ATL 10 8 6 47 26 8.7
16 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 10 8 4 18 28 5.8
  • Allen Robinson has averaged 7.28 targets per game in the seven he’s been active. He missed two games due to a groin injury. Did you know this was Robinson’s first multi-touchdown game since Week 3 of the 2016 season when he was with the Jaguars? He accumulated 64 percent of his 31.3 fantasy points in PPR formats while running routes from the slot.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
23 Davante Adams GB 10 7 4 57 93 21.7
23 Chris Godwin TB 10 7 7 103 92 17.3
23 Nelson Agholor PHI 10 7 5 83 123 13.3
23 T.Y. Hilton IND 10 7 3 77 71 10.7
23 Marvin Jones DET 10 7 3 55 104 8.5
23 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 10 7 6 44 35 10.4
23 Kendrick Bourne SF 10 7 4 33 99 7.3
  • Davante Adams continues to be underrated. He is averaging 10.4 targets and 99.4 Air Yards per game. Adams enters Week 11 with 35 career touchdowns and will not turn 26 years old until next month.
Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
30 Anthony Miller CHI 10 6 5 122 85 23.2
30 Antonio Brown PIT 10 6 6 96 59 21.6
30 Tyler Lockett SEA 10 6 5 67 73 19.5
30 John Ross CIN 10 6 2 39 98 11.9
30 Mike Evans TB 10 6 3 51 115 8.1
30 Brandon LaFell OAK 10 6 4 47 45 8.7
30 Tyrell Williams LAC 10 6 4 46 78 8.6
30 Dante Pettis SF 10 6 4 12 19 5.2
30 Christian Kirk ARI 10 6 2 8 54 2.8
  • Anthony Miller has the third most targets on the team amongst wide receivers with 41. He generated 95 percent of his fantasy production in PPR formats lined up in the slot.

 

 

 

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
39 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 10 5 3 90 45 19.3
39 Robert Woods LAR 10 5 4 89 77 14.6
39 Marquise Goodwin SF 10 5 4 69 55 10.9
39 Maurice Harris WAS 10 5 5 52 41 10.6
39 Calvin Ridley ATL 10 5 3 37 31 7
39 Doug Baldwin SEA 10 5 5 39 18 8.9
39 Cole Beasley DAL 10 5 4 37 34 7.7
39 Devin Funchess CAR 10 5 3 32 49 6.2
39 D.J. Moore CAR 10 5 4 20 10 6.5
39 Jarvis Landry CLE 10 5 2 22 62 4.2
39 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 10 5 2 16 32 3.6
  • Robert Woods is averaging 7.9 targets per game. The season-ending ACL injury to teammate Cooper Kupp will allow him to see additional targets per game and also open up the opportunity for Woods to run additional routes as a slot receiver as NFL.com Managing Editor Graham Barfield mentioned below.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
50 Donte Moncrief JAX 10 4 3 98 53 18.8
50 Josh Doctson WAS 10 4 4 46 38 14.6
50 Robert Foster BUF 10 4 3 105 106 13.5
50 Tyler Boyd CIN 10 4 3 65 18 9.5
50 Dontrelle Inman IND 10 4 4 41 33 8.1
50 Demarcus Robinson KC 10 4 3 30 37 6
50 Golden Tate PHI 10 4 2 19 49 3.9
50 Curtis Samuel CAR 10 4 4 18 10 3.9
  • Tyler Boyd matched his season low in targets in the Bengals first game without A.J. Green. The team’s offense was in disarray and it negatively impacted all the position players from a fantasy perspective. Boyd will look to get back on track against the Ravens this week.
Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
58 Sterling Shepard NYG 10 3 2 9 9 11.6
58 Adam Humphries TB 10 3 2 53 38 7.3
58 Jordan Matthews PHI 10 3 3 40 42 7
58 Seth Roberts OAK 10 3 3 39 26 6.9
58 Cameron Batson TEN 10 3 2 36 30 5.6
58 Michael Gallup DAL 10 3 2 34 14 5.4
58 Kenny Stills MIA 10 3 2 26 18 4.6
58 Jarius Wright CAR 10 3 3 22 13 5.2
58 Martavis Bryant OAK 10 3 3 17 6 4.9
58 David Moore SEA 10 3 1 16 51 2.6
58 Michael Floyd WAS 10 3 2 15 15 3.5
58 Brandon Powell DET 10 3 1 6 6 1.6
58 Equanimeous St. Brown GB 10 3 2 3 35 2.3
58 Taylor Gabriel CHI 10 3 0 0 149 0
58 Tajae Sharpe TEN 10 3 0 0 56 0
58 Terrelle Pryor BUF 10 3 0 0 45 0
58 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 10 3 0 0 49 0
  • Kelvin Benjamin matched his season low in targets and had his fewest number of Air Yards since Week 3. All signs are pointing to a potential breakout of Jones and Robert Foster.

Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
76 Keith Kirkwood NO 10 2 2 45 30 6.5
76 Allen Hurns DAL 10 2 2 40 25 6
76 Antonio Callaway CLE 10 2 2 39 25 5.9
76 Breshad Perriman CLE 10 2 2 33 24 5.3
76 Ryan Switzer PIT 10 2 2 31 12 5.1
76 Chris Conley KC 10 2 1 22 22 3.2
76 Austin Carr NO 10 2 2 20 15 4
76 Phillip Dorsett NE 10 2 2 18 8 3.8
76 Cody Core CIN 10 2 2 17 17 3.7
76 TJ Jones DET 10 2 1 12 56 2.2
76 D.J. Chark JAX 10 2 0 0 18 0
  • Antonio Callaway has played an average of 73.2 percent of the Browns offensive snaps over the last four weeks, but has only averaged 3.5 targets over that time frame. There simply isn’t enough passing volume to support multiple receivers from a fantasy perspective.
Rk Player Team Wk TAR REC YDS AIR YARDS PPR
87 Rashard Higgins CLE 10 1 1 28 28 9.8
87 Isaiah McKenzie BUF 10 1 1 14 -4 5.6
87 Leonte Carroo MIA 10 1 1 20 19 4.4
87 Andre Holmes BUF 10 1 1 22 11 3.2
87 Marvin Hall ATL 10 1 1 12 5 2.2
87 Trent Taylor SF 10 1 1 12 7 2.2
87 Charone Peake NYJ 10 1 1 11 19 2.1
87 Corey Coleman NYG 10 1 1 11 11 2.1
87 Darrius Heyward-Bey PIT 10 1 1 9 -1 1.9
87 Darius Jennings TEN 10 1 1 0 9 1.84
87 Justin Hardy ATL 10 1 1 7 5 1.7
87 Ryan Grant IND 10 1 1 6 4 1.6
  • Rashard Higgins did score a touchdown last week, but only played 41.5 percent of the offensive snaps. He has only been targeted five times over the last two games.

 

 

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

Eric Moody

Eric Moody

Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association) and writes exclusively about fantasy football. He has a lifelong passion for the game and played on the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level by using game film. When he provides fantasy football advice he prefers to "play the piano with both hands" using game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. Eric enjoys Netflix, listening to music, playing bass guitar, drinking coffee, and spending time with his family. He lives in Dallas, Texas

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