Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 6

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Fantasy Football WR Target Analysis

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Donte Moncrief led all wide receivers in targets with 15. Antonio Brown accounted for 45 percent of the Steelers target share. John Brown led all wide receivers in Air Yards with 209. Davante Adams (151), Moncrief (186), Odell Beckham (196), and DeAndre Hopkins (201) were the only other receivers with 150 or more Air Yards. Sammy Watkins (2.0) led all receivers with eight or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Brown (1.01) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs in Week 5  include Hopkins (0.91), A.J. Green (0.85) and Beckham (0.81). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will highlight one player per tier that is projected to see significant target volume that could result in a big Week 6 performance.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
1	Donte Moncrief	JAX	5	15	6	76	13.6
2	Odell Beckham Jr	NYG	5	14	8	131	31.4
2	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	5	14	9	72	16.2
2	John Brown	BAL	5	14	4	58	9.8

• John Brown is currently the WR22 in PPR formats and has established himself as the top receiving option in Baltimore. He is currently leading all wide receivers in Air Yards per game. Brown has a high floor and even higher ceiling. He can be considered a high-end WR2 every week.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
5	Antonio Brown	PIT	5	13	6	101	28.1
5	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	5	13	9	151	22.1
7	Davante Adams	GB	5	12	9	140	29
7	Michael Crabtree	BAL	5	12	6	66	12.6
7	Pierre Garcon	SF	5	12	5	47	9.7

• It was nice to see Brown return to form last week with his first 100 yard game of the season. He has negative receiving fantasy points over expectation entering Week 6. This suggests Brown has not been able to maximize the target volume he has been given so far this season. He continues to have a high floor and the potential to finish as the top wide receiver this week as the Steelers face the Bengals.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
10	Stefon Diggs	MIN	5	11	10	91	21.6
10	Chester Rogers	IND	5	11	8	66	14.6
12	Adam Thielen	MIN	5	10	7	116	24.6
12	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	5	10	7	68	19.8
12	AJ Green	CIN	5	10	6	112	17.2
12	Keelan Cole	JAX	5	10	4	70	11
12	Jarvis Landry	CLE	5	10	5	69	11.9

• This was Chester Rogers has had double-digit targets in two consecutive games due to the absence of T.Y. Hilton. He has led the Colts in targets and receiving yards over the last two weeks. It remains to be seen if Hilton will return this week against the Jets.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
17	Kenny Golladay	DET	5	9	4	98	19.8
17	Cooper Kupp	LAR	5	9	6	90	21
17	Keenan Allen	LAC	5	9	8	90	17.5
17	Julio Jones	ATL	5	9	5	62	11.2
17	Ryan Grant	IND	5	9	6	58	11.8
17	Julian Edelman	NE	5	9	7	57	12.7

• Julian Edelman averaged 9.7 targets and 69.6 receiving yards per game from 2013 to 2017. This target volume was right in line with his averages during that time frame. Edelman can be viewed as a low-end WR2 in PPR formats against the Chiefs this week in a matchup that has the highest projected point total so far this season.

 

 

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
23	Trent Taylor	SF	5	8	7	61	19.1
23	Sammy Watkins	KC	5	8	6	78	13.8
23	Jamison Crowder	WAS	5	8	4	55	9.5
23	Maurice Harris	WAS	5	8	3	47	7.7
23	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	5	8	2	39	5.9

• Alshon Jeffery essentially picked up where he left off last season. He has accumulated 17 targets in Week 4 and Week 5.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
28	Robert Woods	LAR	5	7	5	92	19.5
28	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	5	7	4	73	17.3
28	Keke Coutee	HOU	5	7	6	51	17.3
28	Tyreek Hill	KC	5	7	4	61	12.7
28	Sterling Shepard	NYG	5	7	4	75	11.5
28	Willie Snead	BAL	5	7	5	55	10.5
28	Devin Funchess	CAR	5	7	4	53	9.3
28	Tyler Boyd	CIN	5	7	4	44	8.4
28	Golden Tate	DET	5	7	5	42	9.2
28	Seth Roberts	OAK	5	7	4	41	8.1
28	Kendrick Bourne	SF	5	7	4	33	7.3
28	Zach Pascal	IND	5	7	1	12	2.2

• Tyreek Hill is averaging 7.8 targets this season and should meet or exceed that number against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fourth most Air Yards this season.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
40	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	5	6	5	105	21.5
40	Courtland Sutton	DEN	5	6	2	18	9.8
40	Corey Davis	TEN	5	6	4	49	8.9
40	Albert Wilson	MIA	5	6	5	43	9.3
40	Jarius Wright	CAR	5	6	3	25	5.5
40	Chad Williams	ARI	5	6	2	23	4.3

• Demaryius Thomas (13) and Courtland Sutton (12)have seen similar target volume over the last two weeks.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
46	Robby Anderson	NYJ	5	5	3	123	27.3
46	Tyler Lockett	SEA	5	5	3	98	19.4
46	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	5	5	3	89	11.9
46	Michael Thomas	NO	5	5	4	74	11.4
46	Derrick Willies	CLE	5	5	3	61	9.1
46	Dede Westbrook	JAX	5	5	3	55	8.5
46	Cameron Meredith	NO	5	5	5	71	10.1
46	Paul Richardson	WAS	5	5	4	50	9
46	Calvin Ridley	ATL	5	5	4	38	7.8
46	Antonio Callaway	CLE	5	5	3	22	5.2
46	Chris Conley	KC	5	5	2	21	4.1
46	Kenny Stills	MIA	5	5	2	17	3.7
46	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	5	5	1	11	2.1
46	Taywan Taylor	TEN	5	5	3	30	4
46	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	5	5	0	0	0

• Antonio Callaway has accumulated 24 targets and 378 Air Yards over the last three weeks. He has struggled with drops and is unlikely to go boom against the Chargers secondary, but has the potential to be a fantasy difference maker the second half of the season.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
61	David Moore	SEA	5	4	3	38	18.8
61	Christian Kirk	ARI	5	4	3	85	18
61	Rashard Higgins	CLE	5	4	3	66	15.6
61	Josh Gordon	NE	5	4	2	50	13
61	Jordy Nelson	OAK	5	4	4	43	14.3
61	Curtis Samuel	CAR	5	4	2	37	11.7
61	Juju Smith-Schuster	PIT	5	4	4	34	13.4
61	Marvin Jones	DET	5	4	1	8	7.8
61	D.J. Chark	JAX	5	4	2	68	8.8
61	D.J. Moore	CAR	5	4	4	49	10.7
61	Russell Shepard	NYG	5	4	3	52	8.2
61	Mike Williams	LAC	5	4	3	45	7.8
61	Nelson Agholor	PHI	5	4	4	45	8.5
61	Chris Hogan	NE	5	4	3	34	6.4
61	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	5	4	3	30	6
61	Danny Amendola	MIA	5	4	3	30	6
61	Jawill Davis	NYG	5	4	2	27	4.7
61	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	5	4	3	21	5.1
61	Zay Jones	BUF	5	4	3	20	5
61	Deonte Thompson	DAL	5	4	2	19	3.9
61	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	5	4	1	14	2.4
61	Victor Bolden Jr.	SF	5	4	1	10	2

• This is simply a gentle reminder that JuJu Smith-Schuster has averaged 10.6 targets per game this season.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
83	Tre’Quan Smith	NO	5	3	3	111	26.1
83	Martavis Bryant	OAK	5	3	3	91	10.1
83	Tyrell Williams	LAC	5	3	3	66	9.6
83	Allen Hurns	DAL	5	3	1	3	7.3
83	Josh Reynolds	LAR	5	3	2	39	6.9
83	Daesean Hamilton	DEN	5	3	3	44	7.4
83	Tavon Austin	DAL	5	3	1	44	5.4
83	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	5	3	2	35	5.5
83	Phillip Dorsett	NE	5	3	3	25	5.5
83	Marvin Hall	ATL	5	3	2	25	4.5
83	Alex Erickson	CIN	5	3	3	24	5.4
83	Will Fuller	HOU	5	3	2	15	3.5
83	Cole Beasley	DAL	5	3	1	8	1.8
83	Michael Gallup	DAL	5	3	1	6	1.6

• The Cowboys have five wide receivers with double-digit targets this season. Did you know that Tavon Austin leads the Cowboys wide receivers in fantasy points this season with 48 and 198 Air Yards?

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
97	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	5	2	2	11	9.1
97	Marcus Johnson	IND	5	2	2	26	4.6
97	Chris Moore	BAL	5	2	1	20	3
97	Austin Carr	NO	5	2	2	17	3.7
97	Andre Roberts	NYJ	5	2	1	4	1.4
97	Andre Holmes	BUF	5	2	0	0	0
97	James Washington	PIT	5	2	0	0	0

• James Washington has the third most Air Yards (237) on the Steelers, but is not seeing enough target volume to be fantasy relevant. Antonio Brown (0.30) and Smith-Schuster (0.25) continue to dominate the team’s target share. If one of them were to miss an extended period of time then Washington would immediately become fantasy relevant.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
104	Terrelle Pryor	NYJ	5	1	1	20	9
104	Shelton Gibson	PHI	5	1	1	48	5.8
104	Khadarel Hodge	LAR	5	1	1	14	2.4
104	De’Anthony Thomas	KC	5	1	1	13	2.3
104	Amari Cooper	OAK	5	1	1	10	2
104	Richie James	SF	5	1	1	7	1.7
104	Darius Jennings	TEN	5	1	1	6	1.6
104	Tim Patrick	DEN	5	1	1	6	1.6
104	Brian Quick	WAS	5	1	1	6	1.6
104	Ryan Switzer	PIT	5	1	1	5	1.5
104	Ray-Ray McCloud	BUF	5	1	1	7	1.4
104	Jordan Matthews	PHI	5	1	1	4	1.4
104	Doug Baldwin	SEA	5	1	1	1	1.1

• Amari Cooper is averaging 6.2 targets and 11.4 PPR fantasy points per game this season. He has either recorded 20 receiving yards or less this season or has gone boom for 110 or more receiving yards this season while leading the Raiders in Air Yards (323). Cooper remains a volatile WR3 this week against the Seahawks.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

 

 

 

Thanks & Good Luck This Week!