Tom Brady Fantasy Football 2016
In case you live under a rock, Deflategate is finally over, and Tom Brady will miss the first four games of the 2016 NFL regular season. Due to the suspension, Brady is finding himself much lower than usual in 2016 fantasy football rankings. Which may leave you scratching your head wondering how and when to draft Tom Brady, or if you should bother?
Which may leave you scratching your head wondering how and when to draft Tom Brady, or if you should even bother?
Here’s a sneak peak to Gridiron Experts 2016 QB Projections for Tom Brady.
25th Ranked Quarterback? That’s crazy! – Not really.
As Jody Smith explained in the latest Fantasy Factor Podcast, Brady’s fantasy projections are based on a 16 game fantasy season total but subtracted the four games he’ll miss from the suspension. Tom Brady is currently 2nd highest for fantasy points per game in our projections, but missing four games plus a bye week hurts his overall fantasy value for the season.
- See all QB rankings here
Tom Brady Draft Strategy A: The Brutal Truth
The brutal truth is unless you can score Tom Brady in the 10th round or later, he isn’t worth owning. Sure, Brady will have some huge fantasy weeks when he is in fact playing, but if your fantasy playoffs start week 13, and he’s going to miss five weeks (suspension + Bye) he shouldn’t be considered a QB1 at your draft.
Draft Tip: Let Brady fall down the draft board until it gets to the point that the value is too good to pass up. I have implemented this strategy in drafts recently and have been able to get Brady in the 10th round of a 12-team league. That’s crazy good value. If you to wait on a quarterback, which may be the best strategy for any fantasy league, and Brady is sitting there, scoop him up. If he gets drafted before that don’t sweat it- there are plenty of great options at quarterback.
Tom Brady Draft Strategy B: The Brady Bunch
In this strategy, you are making it a point to target Brady as you like the idea of having one of the best points per fantasy quarterbacks in the league. Obviously, drafting a player like Brady will mean you’ll need another equally strong QB2 to survive the missing games. Your goal here is to draft your QB1 and then make your following pick your QB2. This strategy is easier with a corner pick (1 or 12) as it allows you not to have to reach if there is a run on QB’s between your picks. Here are a few we here at Gridiron Experts like:
1. Philip Rivers
San Diego Chargers | QB[the_ad id=”63198″]Currently, Rivers according to ADP, has fallen into the 12th round of 12-team leagues, which does work perfectly for pairing him with Brady. If Rivers is there in round 12, you should be jumping with joy and grab him. The Chargers QB should be in the conversation to be a top seven quarterback, but seemingly like every other year, he gets no love. Before
Before Keenen Allen went down, Rivers was on pace to finish as the fourth best QB in 2015. Now with the most talented receiving corps he has ever had, look for Rivers to light up the scoreboard the first four weeks. He will matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs without Justin Houston and then the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and New Orleans Saints. Then in week nine for Brady’s bye, he matches up against the Tennessee Titans. Rivers is a tremendous value in Round 11, but if you’re not lucky enough to get him there, these next two signal-callers will also work well.
2. Tony Romo
Dallas Cowboys | QB
Romo is going as the 13th QB off the board, early in Round 10. We have him as QB11. Since Romo has the reputation that he can’t stay healthy, he finds himself sliding down draft boards to a point where he becomes a nice value. He has fallen to round 12- which is where I typically target him. I understand that I probably won’t end up with Romo on many of my teams, but that’s fine because I only need him for the first four weeks of the season, which is probably all he will play anyway, with bones made of glass.
That being said, Romo has been healthy for the majority of his career to start the season and should thrive in the first four games against the New York Giants, Washington, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. Then in week nine for Brady’s bye, the Dallas Cowboys square up against the Cleveland Browns. If you don’t manage to land Rivers or Romo don’t sweat it, the next guy will be a good replacement.
3. Matt Ryan
Atlanta Falcons | QB
Matty Ice is currently going as the 17th QB off the board which is exactly where Gridiron Experts has him ranked. Ryan usually goes in round 12 but often falls to round 13. Since the first two guys didn’t fall to the value you were hoping, I say grab Ryan in round 12 and feel confident about it. He will start the season off with three good matchups with Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders, and New Orleans Saints. Then in week four he will face the NFC champion Carolina Panthers, who he surprisingly played well against last year. Also, this year Carolina will be without star cornerback Josh Norman. Then in week nine during Brady’s bye, Ryan faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the second time. A Brady/Ryan combo could certainly be a path to fantasy success.
Mitchell is working full-time as Senior Writer & On-Air Talent at Chat Sports in Dallas, TX. Mitchell is a Head Writer at Gridiron Experts and Co-Host of the Empire Fantasy Podcast. He also is a featured fantasy writer for the Fantasy Footballers and FantasyPros. Mitchell has a Ph.D. in Fantasy Football so give him a follow on Twitter @MitchellRenz365.