Money Where Your Mouth Is: Week 7
Back from the dead is our weekly sports betting article “Money Where Your Mouth Is”. Fantasy owners can stick their noses up all they want, but our demographics tell us that many fantasy owners are also betting on the odd game here and there. Ryan “The Numbers Guy” Miller (46-46) is kicking off this first article of the year with a brief break down on three games for week 7 with the lines that he likes this week. And, of course…as the title says, we have put our money where our mouth is.
*Remember to always bet conservatively, play amongst your means
Ryan Miller: Week 7 Picks
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts at -2 points
Coming off a very tough loss to the New York Jets in Week 6 the Colts are ready to host the Browns in Week 7. Andrew Luck had his worst game in his young career statistically but there are many bright spots for this Colt team heading into this week and many bad numbers for the Browns.
First let’s start with the reason for bad outlook on the Browns side of the ball. Brandon Weeden has been picked off a league high 10 times this year. Cleveland has dropped 10 straight on the road. Trent Richardson (ribs) is injured but will play but probably see a few carries go to a less talented running back in order to preserve his long term health. The Browns have the 3rd worst pass defense and the 8th worst run defense. Even with Trent Richardson in the backfield the Browns are averaging only 83.2 yards a game on the ground. This is a team that relies heavily on the pass and as you will see in the Colts breakdown their chances don’t look good.
The Colts will be getting Pro bowl linebacker Robert Mathis back after missing one game due to a knee injury. This will help their less than stellar run defense. Their pass defense on the other hand is giving up 200.0 yards per game through the air, third fewest in the league. Their passing attack is 9th in the league in average yards with 280.4 yards facing a defense that on average gives up 294.2 yards.
This game is over before it has started as Andrew Luck will be ready to shine and the Colts will roll.
Dallas Cowboys at -2.5 points @ Carolina Panthers
Tony Romo will be the deciding factor in this game believe it or not. Cam Newton has little to no effect on the outcome. Why you say? Because Cam has had little to no effect on the outcome of every game all year long. Again Why? Because the offense he is in is not taylor-made for his game. You can read more about that here.
The Panthers don’t have many things going for them this week. They have only produced an average of 10 points in their last two home games. The only touchdown they had against the Seahawks was a pick six. The Panthers are bad at passing the ball, coming in at 22nd in the league and at stopping the run coming in at 23rd in the league. The Panthers are 0-13 when the attempt to run the ball 27 times or fewer and are 7-1 when they run 28 times or more. So the running game will be key for the Panthers.
The Cowboys on the other hand have won eight straight in regular-season games versus the Panther and four of those in Charlotte. The Cowboys are 2nd in the league in pass defense giving up a 181.6 yards average and 13th in rushing defense giving up 103.6 yards on average. The Cowboys also are 6th in passing yards in the league averaging 287.8 yards.
If stats are even slightly relevant then the Cowboys should dominate this game. They have much more talent all over the ball and the Panthers simply have none.
New Orleans Saints at -2 points @ Tampa Bay Bucs
The New Orleans Saints are looking for win number two of the year against a Tampa Bay Bucs team that trying to fool everyone that they have a decent offense.
The Bucs have given up an average of 312.2 yards per game in the air. They have given rookie running back Doug Martin plenty of touches and he is only averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. The Bucs are 25th in passing and 17th in rushing in the league.
Brees has thrown a TD pass in 48 straight games. He was 29 of 45 for 370 yards with four TDs in his last game against the Chargers. He’s thrown for 816 yards with seven touchdowns and an interception in his last two games. The Saints are 1st in passing yards in the league. They are also coming off a bye week after their first win of the season. The Bucs are great against the run; unfortunately the Saints willÃ‚Â mostly be passing the ball. This pass first offense should probably open up some running lanes.
The Saints looked like they found it last week in the second quarter against the Chargers. And with this being a divisional match up they will be ready to get out and get another win and make something of their season. Brees has plenty of guys to throw the ball to with Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham, and Marques Colston all throwing their name in the hat for catches, yards, and touchdowns.
The Saints will come out and get a good win over a Tampa team that will struggle to keep pace with the fire power of their division rivals.
Ryan: I have parlayed my three and put $25 in hopes of winning $150.