NFL Picks: Week 13
This season, I’ll be providing my picks every week for you, our readers. Last year, I was Gridiron’s top NFL Pick’em guru on Tallysight, going 167-99-1 (63%). We’re hoping to have even more success this year! Each week, I’ll give you my picks for the game, and a short write-up centered around the key reason why I’m making the pick that I am. You can also click over to see all our Free NFL picks for the week with more than a dozen Gridiron Experts picking each game.
And we’re off!
New Orleans (-3) @ Atlanta
The 9-2 Saints will travel to Atlanta as Taysom Hill will be under center for New Orleans yet again. Since taking over, Hill is 2-0 as the Saints’ starter, including a win over these same Falcons 2 weeks ago. Even though that contest took place in the Superdome, I think the Saints still have the edge here. The leaky Atlanta secondary will have trouble containing Hill and this offense. Look for New Orleans to get Michael Thomas more involved, as he was only targeted 6 times against Denver. With that said, it’s possible that the Saints left some gas in the tank playing the depleted Broncos last weekend, so I wouldn’t expect Thomas or Alvin Kamara to be used so sparingly moving forward. We can’t discount the Falcons here, as they’ve won 3 of 4, including a dominating 43-6 win over the 6-5 Raiders. Atlanta might get Julio Jones back for this contest, but I expect him to be limited if he does play. All signs point to New Orleans taking this one on the road, especially given the fantastic defensive efforts they’ve put forth recently. Saints 31-25.
Cincinnati @ Miami (-11.5)
With Brandon Allen at the helm and star RB Joe Mixon still on injured reserve, it’s hard to get excited about this Bengals team which fell to the Giants in Week 12. Miami, on the other hand, is surging forward at 7-4, although their starting QB won’t be revealed until Sunday morning. Whether it’s Tua Tagovailoa or Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think that Miami is the better team on both sides of the ball. With the Bengals struggling to rush the passer all year, either QB will have time to make the necessary throws and exploit this defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in points allowed. Defensively, I expect the Dolphins to smother Allen and to force turnovers early and often. Give me the Dolphins to cover at home. Dolphins 32-18.
Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-10)
It’s Mike Glennon time yet again for the Jaguars. Glennon will make his second straight start as the Jaguars head to Minnesota. While Jacksonville has lost 10 straight, they’ve been surprisingly competitive against some decent teams (5 of their losses have been by 1 score or less.) Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5. The only loss, surprisingly, came to Dallas. It seems the Vikings have figured things out after their Week 7 Bye, and their offense has been rolling behind Dalvin Cook’s production. With all of that said, if Jacksonville can score some points, I think they might keep this one close. Neither of these defenses is competent, so I expect James Robinson to pace the Jacksonville offensive attack. Should Robinson have a solid outing, I think the Jaguars will keep it close enough to lose by less than 10. Vikings 33-25.
Las Vegas (-8.5) @ New York Jets
The Jets are 0-11 and will be 0-12 come Sunday Night. I think this line floated lower due to the Raiders’ terrible performance in Atlanta last weekend… but I just can’t bring myself to pick the Jets here. Josh Jacobs is in danger of missing this game, but I’m not sure it’ll matter. Look for Derek Carr to rebound here and for the Raiders to win comfortably on the road here. Raiders 30-18.
Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston
Indianapolis is coming off of a loss to Tennessee last week, while Houston won its 3rd game in their last 4, stomping the Lions in Detroit. Indianapolis sits at 7-4 but has been very up-and-down as of late. There are times when they’ve looked amazing, such as their wins over Tennessee and Green Bay. However, they’ve also looked terrible in losses to Baltimore and the Titans at home last week. The Texans sustained two big blows offensively, losing Will Fuller to suspension and Randall Cobb to injury. With that said, Houston may get David Johnson back from Injured Reserve, which would give the offense back a huge boost. The Indianapolis defense gives them a large advantage here, but the unit has shown some vulnerability over their past two games, allowing 76 points in those two contests combined. With some defensive linemen coming off of the COVID reserve list, it should help… but I’m not quite convinced this Colts defensive unit is as elite as we thought. Call me crazy here, but I think the Texans are dangerous at home this week. Texans 27-26.
Cleveland @ Tennessee (-5.5)
We have a matchup of 8-3 teams down in Nashville on Sunday. Tennessee has impressed in its last two contests, knocking off the Ravens and Colts, while Cleveland has won 3 in a row with wins over the Jags, Eagles, and Texans. Both of these teams have electric rushing offenses. Tennessee tout’s the game’s most productive RB, Derrick Henry, who leads the league in rushing, while Cleveland has the game’s best duo in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Tennessee has also improved drastically on the defensive side of the ball since they acquired Desmond King from the Chargers. Along with Malcolm Butler, King has helped this secondary stand out and become more effective on third down. The Titans also have the advantage at Quarterback, where Ryan Tannehill has continued to be efficient and effective in throwing the ball. Tannehill will lean on AJ Brown and Corey Davis to exploit this Cleveland defense. Speaking of the Browns’ defense, they’ll get Myles Garrett back from the COVID list which should help their chances. Tennessee, however, is one of the league’s best at home and I expect them to pull this one out. Titans 33-26.
Detroit @ Chicago (-3)
Mitchell Trubisky will start for the Bears at home in this matchup. Detroit, on the other hand, stumbles into this matchup having lost 2 games in a row and 4 of their last 5 games. The Chicago defense is the best unit on the field, and I expect them to play as such. Detroit, on the other hand, ranks 31st in points allowed. While Trubisky isn’t an elite option at quarterback, I think that he, Allen Robinson, and David Montgomery will do enough for Chicago to take this one at home. Bears 23-19.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ Arizona
Both of these squads are coming off of a loss in their last game. Los Angeles fell in a heartbreaker to San Francisco, while the Cardinals fell late to the Patriots. Arizona has lost 3 of their last 4 games after an amazing start to the season. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has posted some impressive wins over the likes of the Buccaneers and the Seahawks. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins lead this impressive offensive attack for Arizona, while Kenyan Drake has also reentered the lineup. Los Angeles leans on a 3-headed monster at RB (Akers, Henderson, and Brown) and for Jared Goff to spread the ball around to the likes of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Josh Reynolds. Both teams have excelled on both sides of the ball at times and can lock down defensively, or light up the scoreboard offensively. This will certainly be fun to watch, no matter the outcome. With that said, I think that the Cardinals and Mr. Murray are due to bounce back at home. I’ll take the home dogs to pull the upset here. Cardinals 30-28.
New York Giants @ Seattle (-10.5)
If Daniel Jones were playing, I think the Giants defense could keep this game within striking distance. But, with Colt McCoy at the helm, I just don’t have the same confidence. Despite the improvement of the Giants’ defense, I just think the three-headed monster of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson will be too much to handle. With Russell Wilson pulling the strings at home, I can’t pick against Seattle here. I’ll take the Seahawks to cover. Seahawks 33-20.
New England @ Los Angeles Chargers (PICK)
The Patriots have played all but two teams close this season, and I expect that trend to continue. However, Herbert is a bonafide star, and I expect him to keep improving. With Austin Ekeler back in the fold, I think that this Chargers team has a late-season run in them, and this might just be the kickstart they need to take Herbert to the next level. I’ll take the rookie to pull this one out late at home. Chargers 24-23.
Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-8.5)
This season proved to me that Carson Wentz is not the answer in Philadelphia. With Miles Sanders inexplicably touching the ball a mere 8 times in their loss last week, and Travis Fulgham ceding relevance to oft-injured veterans such as I’m not sure I can trust this team at all offensively. Green Bay comes in at 8-3 and touting the league’s top-scoring offense in points per game. Not to mention, they’re home at Lambeau. I expect Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams to be as productive as ever, and for the Packers to roll over the stumbling Eagles on Sunday. Packers 31-19.
Denver @ Kansas City (-14)
I don’t expect Patrick Mahomes & Co. to lose again this regular season… especially not to the Broncos who haven’t been on the field much over the past two weeks. With Tyreek Hill playing the best football of his life and the KC defense playing better every week, Look for the Chiefs to roll here. Chiefs 40-20.
Washington @ Pittsburgh (-7)
I think many will be low on the Steelers after their sleepwalking performance on Wednesday afternoon. But, it’s important to remember, this team has a ton of offensive firepower and can attack from so many different angles. Not to mention, they have the league’s best defense to boot. While Washington’s defense will keep the score respectable, I don’t think this Football Team will be the one to end the Steelers’ undefeated streak. Steelers 29-19.
Buffalo @ San Francisco (PICK)
Buffalo has won 4 of their last 5 games and is riding high behind their QB Josh Allen. San Francisco pulled out a thriller last week against the Rams and have kept themselves relevant in the NFC West with a 5-6 record. Nick Mullens received a boost last week with the returns of Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert. With this offense regaining some of its stars, it’ll certainly make them more competitive down the stretch. The Bills, on the other hand, have benefitted from the improved play of Allen, who has thrown for 3,000+ yards and 22 touchdowns, while adding 6 rushing scores to boot. Allen’s honed in on WR Stefon Diggs, whose 945 receiving yards ranks 6th in the NFL. This offense can score in bunches, and the 49ers can’t have a defensive lapse or Buffalo might run away with this one. Even though the 49ers impressed many with their win over Los Angeles last week, I’m not sure they’ll have the defensive weapons to slow down Josh Allen and this dynamic Bills offense. I’ll take Buffalo to pull it out on the road. Bills 28-26.
Dallas @ Baltimore (-7.5)
It’s hard to predict who the Ravens will have on the field for this affair, so I’m making this pick assuming that they have all of their pieces in play. Should Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and others return, I like the Ravens to win. However, with minimal practice over the past two weeks, I just can’t see them blowing the doors off of this Dallas team that does still tout some playmakers of their own. Zeke, Cooper, and Lamb will make their mark, but I ultimately think the Ravens will pull out a sloppy victory in Dallas. Ravens 29-27.
Enjoy the games! Until next week…
A former D1 College Wrestler at Boston University, Brad hails from New Jersey. By day, Brad works in the corporate automotive world, but by night, he is an avid sports, football, and fantasy sports enthusiast with a passion for winning. Fun Fact: Brad ran and finished the 2019 Boston Marathon!
Over the past decade, Brad has won dozens of fantasy league championships and has been writing for Gridiron Experts for the past 4 seasons. While he’s surrounded by Giants and Jets supporters, Brad is a diehard Tennessee Titans fan, and, accordingly has dumped a ton of money into NFL Sunday Ticket in his years!