Week 10 NFL Picks
This season, I’ll be providing my picks every week for you, our readers. Last year, I was Gridiron’s top NFL Pick’em guru on Tallysight, going 167-99-1 (63%). We’re hoping to have even more success this year! Each week, I’ll give you my picks for the game, and a short write-up centered around the key reason why I’m making the pick that I am. You can also click over to see all our Free NFL picks for the week with more than a dozen Gridiron Experts picking each game.
And we’re off!
Washington @ Detroit (-4.5)
Washington is coming off a loss to the lowly Giants while the Lions fell to the Vikings in Minnesota. Detroit will be without Kenny Golladay, while the Football Team will be missing their starting QB, Kyle Allen, who is out for the year. Accordingly, Terry McLaurin will be the best player on the field for either team. Otherwise, neither team is particularly exciting offensively, while the Football Team has the edge on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 4th in the league with 26 sacks and 7th with 8 INT. With that said, I foresee a close game and trust Matthew Stafford to make the big throws late to pull out a close one at home. Lions 24-21.
Tampa Bay (-5.5) @ Carolina
Tom Brady & the Buccaneers played horribly last Sunday Night, falling to the Saints at home. Carolina, on the other hand, had their star RB, Christian McCaffrey return from injury. Even though they gave the Cheifs all they could handle, the Panthers eventually lost and McCaffrey sustained yet another injury. Now, Mike Davis will step back in as Carolina attempts to rebound. To me, the largest factor in this game is the Tampa Bay defense. Although Brees performed quite well last weekend, I do think that this unit will get back on track against Carolina. The fearsome front should be able to disturb Bridgewater’s rhythm and I do believe Brady gets back on track on Sunday, along with the Tampa Bay rushing attack that was atrocious last week. Buccaneers 30-22.
Houston @ Cleveland (-3)
Despite landing on the COVID list, Baker Mayfield should make his return Sunday to face Houston. Before the Bye, Mayfield was far from effective against the Raiders, as he completed less than 50% of his passes and the offense only scored 6 points. However, Nick Chubb should be making his return for the Browns in this contest, and that’ll be huge for Cleveland, especially against this paper-thin Houston run defense. With that said, if Chubb needs some relief, Kareem Hunt will be able to step in. Additionally, Austin Hooper should return from injury to play on Sunday, providing yet another spark for the Cleveland offense. On the other side of the ball, it seems that the Texans might be without David Johnson (concussion.) Therefore, they’ll rely heavily on the Will Fuller V/DeShaun Watson combo to pace their attack. While I think that this game could be decided on a field goal, I think that Chubb’s return puts the Browns over the edge. Browns 28-23.
Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-13)
The Packers are 6-2 and hosting a rookie QB at Lambeau Field. The Jaguars haven’t won a game since Week 1. Green Bay touts the 3rd highest-scoring offense, while Jacksonville has allowed the 3rd most points in the NFL. Given that, I have the utmost confidence that Green Bay will take care of business in this one. With that said, the 13 point line is always difficult to navigate around. I think that the Green Bay defense will get enough pressure on Luton to make him uncomfortable. While James Robinson should produce, as usual, I think Jacksonville will be playing catch-up for most of the game, forcing Luton to throw more. Again, I hate point spreads that are this large… but if I have to pick one side, I’ll bet on Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams lighting up the scoreboard at home. Packers 38-18.
Philadelphia (-3) @ New York Giants
Daniel Jones knows how to do one thing…. beat Washington. He’s 4-0 against the Football Team. He is 1-17 against the rest of the league. The Giants are playing the Eagles this weekend… not the Washington Football Team. Eagles 25-20.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami (-2.5)
It’s possible we’re seeing the first matchup of many to come as Justin Herbert squares off with fellow rookie Tua Tagovailoa. Los Angeles is traveling across the country for this one, as the game will be played in Miami. Typically, such travel hinders a team’s performance, rest, and routine. With that said, the Dolphins have also been blazing hot on the field. In their last 4 games, they’re 4-0 and have allowed just over 16 points per game. For the season, they rank 4th in points allowed and rank top 10 for points scored as well. With that performance, Miami finds itself right in the thick of the AFC Divisional race. While the aforementioned Herbert has played quite well, the Chargers find themselves decimated at the RB position. Accordingly, the onus will fall on Herbert to perform. He’s lost a lot of close games since he’s taken over as QB1; unfortunately, I see another heartbreaker in his future. I’ll take Miami by a field goal. Dolphins 29-26.
Buffalo @ Arizona (-1.5)
Last weekend, the Bills had a statement win over the Seahawks. Before their Bye week, the Cardinals had the same statement win. Although they fell to the Dolphins last weekend, the Cardinals have been flying high behind the play of QB Kyler Murray. Under Kliff Kingsbury, Murray has been electric, logging 2,130 yards passing and 16 TD compared to only 7 INT. The truly impressive aspect of Murray’s game, however, is his rushing ability. He has accumulated 543 yards and 8 TD on the ground so far this season. Josh Allen has been equally impressive thus far in 2020, and will give the Bills a fighting chance in any game they play. While both offenses are potent, the defenses are a bit different. While Buffalo has allowed the 10th most points in the league, Arizona’s defense has allowed the 6th least. I do expect a high scoring affair, but give Murray the upper hand at home by a field goal. Cardinals 30-27.
Denver @ Las Vegas (-5)
Despite falling in Atlanta, Drew Lock performed admirably last weekend, totaling 3 TD. Las Vegas, on the other hand, held off the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Achilles’ Heel for this Denver team has been their offense which ranks 27th in the league in scoring, averaging only 21.8 points per game. While Lock’s performance last week showed his potential, I’ll need to see it more consistently before believing that the Broncos can keep up with quality offensive teams. I expect Josh Jacobs to lead a metered Raiders attack and for Darren Waller to shine on Sunday. Derek Carr will make the necessary throws for Las Vegas to pull this one out by a few points. With that said, I think -5 is too wide of a margin and that the Denver defense will keep the game competitive throughout. Given that, I will take the Broncos with the points. Raiders 27-23.
Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
In this battle for the NFC West, both of these teams desperately need a victory. Both have lost 2 of their last 3 games. The Rams are well-rested, coming off of their Bye week, while Seattle stumbled in Buffalo last weekend. While Seattle has been fantastic offensively, leading the league in scoring, yards per game, and passing yards per game. Such rankings are a testament to the stellar play of Russell Wilson, who has forced himself into the MVP conversation. Wilson has posted 2,541 passing yards, along with 28 TD and proven that he’s still one of the game’s best. With Chris Carson questionable to play, Seattle will likely need to lean on Wilson and his 2 stud WRs to have a chance in Los Angeles. Jared Goff might also have an increased burden on his shoulders as Darrel Henderson remains sidelined. The Rams’ greatest asset is their defense, which has yielded the 2nd least points and has accumulated the 5th most sacks. When the clock is winding down, Wilson is at his best– even on the road. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal and believe that Russ will get the job done. Seahawks 28-25.
San Francisco @ New Orleans (-9)
Last week, we saw polar opposite performances for these two teams. The Saints have never looked better en route to their 38-3 victory over Tampa Bay. On the other hand, San Francisco looked awful (with all due respect to Richie James) in their loss to Green Bay. Drew Brees is back in the Superdome, and has all of his weapons back. Look for Michael Thomas to regain his form and post a workmanlike performance. Alvin Kamara should dominate as usual. With Raheem Mostert still out, and Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle out for the rest of the season, I just don’t think the 49ers have the firepower to keep up with New Orleans. Nick Mullens might prove me wrong– but I won’t bet on it. I expect the Saints to cruise here and cover this -9 spread. Saints 33-20.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7)
Ben Roethlisberger is currently on the COVID list. If all goes as planned, he should be back in time to lead the undefeated Steelers against the well-rested Bengals who are coming off of their Bye week. Joe Burrow has been fantastic as a rookie and has led this Bengals team admirably. He’s had a few heartbreak losses, along with an impressive win over the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. However, the Steelers remain blemish-free on the season. They’ve played well on the shoulders of both their offense and defense, making them incredibly well-rounded. But, the biggest advantage the Steelers have is their pass rush, which ranks 1st in the league with a whopping 32 sacks. They also rank 1st with 11 interceptions. That combination can be deadly against a rookie QB… no matter how good he’s been. With that said, as long as Big Ben returns, I just don’t see Cincinnati keeping up with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Steelers 30-20.
Baltimore (-7) @ New England
After needing a last-second field goal to beat the Jets, I just can’t get behind the Patriots this week. Despite their defense playing solid football, the New England offense has been awful, ranking 28th with just over 20 points per game. To make things even worse on the Patriots, the Ravens have given up the fewest points in the league. At this point, I just don’t think the New England offense can keep up with Lamar & Co. Despite Jackson’s uncharacteristic play as of late, I believe he’ll do enough to lead Baltimore to a comfortable victory. I’ll take the Ravens to cover. Ravens 28-19.
Minnesota (-2.5) @ Chicago
The Bears have lost 3 in a row, while the Vikings have won their last two games. In one of those wins, Minnesota knocked off the Packers at Lambaeu — a truly impressive win. This week, Dalvin Cook will undoubtedly be the best player on the field. If the Bears find a way to contain him, Kirk Cousins has two elite receiving options to target in Adam Thielen and the rookie Justin Jefferson. Chicago, on the other hand, has one real solid weapon for Nick Foles in Allen Robinson. It’s no surprise that they rank 29th in points scored. David Montgomery is Questionable (concussion) and the rest of the Chicago offensive weapons are uninspiring. If Minnesota can contain Robinson, I think they’ll pull this game out on Monday Night due to their diverse set of options. Even though the Bears’ defense is one of the league’s best, I think that Minnesota has too much offensive juice for them to contain. Whether it’s on the ground with Cook, or through the air to Thielen and Jefferson, I like Minnesota by a score. Vikings 26-21.
Enjoy the games! Until next week…