Waiver Wire Week 2
Don’t Panic!
At least I’m telling myself that after a horrible week 1. There’s nothing like losing all but one of your seasonal matches and 70% of the money I invested in DFS to really get the optimism for the 2024 season flowing. Regardless of how things went for you in Week 1, the best advice I can give is not to panic and make some huge mistake with a trade or the dropping of a player. One week does not a season make.
However, some injuries occurred and in about a month the bye weeks will be upon us. That means many of us will be scouring the waiver wire for the protection we need in our matchups. In this space I plan to give you not only some players to pick up, but also some to avoid drinking the kool-aid on. Some of us are operating on free agent acquisition budgets (FAAB), so I’ll be telling you the percentage of my budget I would be willing to spend as well.
For rostered percentages, I am using Yahoo’s.
Waiver Wire QB Pickups
34% rostered, 10 – 15% of FAAB
To be clear, I’m probably only interested in dipping into the waiver wire for a QB if I have Jordan Love on my team. If you’re someone who drafted Justin Herbert, then you may want to consider this as well. Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Caleb Williams may have been your QB over the weekend, and they all had subpar outings. If you can’t stomach that they had anomalous games or were hampered by a good defense, then you probably shouldn’t have drafted them to begin with. All should have brighter days in front of them, so don’t overreact by spending too much or wasting a waiver priority. However, Mayfield has a fairly fantasy-friendly schedule for the next 3 weeks, so I would want to add him if I needed a replacement for Love, who should hopefully be back in 3 – 6 weeks. Also, why can’t the Browns get guys like Baker?
32% rostered, 10 – 15% of FAAB
I am bullish on the Seattle offense. OC Ryan Grubb’s offense for the University of Washington was dynamic in 2023. The Denver Broncos are going to have a real hard time stopping the run this season, so I understand the Seattle focus on the ground game. CB Patrick Surtain should routinely shut down opposing team’s WR1 like he did with DK Metcalf over the weekend, but Surtain isn’t on every team. There will be better days days ahead for the Seattle passing attack, especially for DK Metcalf.
13% rostered, 0% FAAB
If you miss out on Baker or Geno, you could take a shot on Fields staying the starter for the Steelers after their opening win against Atlanta. Fields didn’t play great or anything, but despite only having 156 passing yard, he did have 14 rush attempts. There just aren’t QBs with his talent and ability to score fantasy points with his legs that are just hanging around. Now, I say 0% on FAAB because there is a chance that Russell Wilson gets the starting nod next week. There is also the chance that Fields just isn’t good at being a quarterback. But the Steelers get the Broncos next week, and they just got gashed by the Seahawks to the tune of 146 rushing yards, including 30 yards and a score from Geno Smith.
Derek Carr – Avoid
While he does get the Eagles crumby pass defense in Week 3, he won’t throw 3 TDs every weekend. We saw Carr’s ceiling on Sunday, and he still only threw the ball 23 times. This offense is going to be a run first offense.
Waiver Wire RB Pickups
58% rostered, 10 – 30% of FAAB
I’ll give fantasy football players some credit because on Monday morning, Mason’s roster percentage was much lower. A few were able to snag Mason prior to the start of last night’s game. I would argue that if you selected CMC with your draft capital, then you should have already had Mason on your team, but I digress. Mason will not be the starter forever here, he might not even be the starter next week, so don’t blow your budget trying to claim him. If you have CMC, however, you should protect your investment because many of you took him #1 overall.
51% rostered, 10 – 15% of FAAB
If Dobbins is unowned in your league this will surely change come Wednesday. We need to be a little careful here. Dobbins got 33 snaps, rushed for 135 yards and a TD on 10 carries and was targeted 4 times. Gus Edwards played in 24 snaps and got one more carry than Dobbins. The two will likely continue to split time, but Dobbins looked the part of the primary back. The Chargers will be effective at running the ball in 2024, I’m just not sure Dobbins will make it through the season.
37% rostered, 5 – 10% of FAAB
It may not look like it in the boxscore, but Javonte Williams was the lead back on Sunday for the Broncos. He played in 52% of the snaps compared to McLaughlin’s 35%. However, it was Jaleel who ended up with more carries (10) and targets (5). While he didn’t do much with them, McLaughlin is going to be involved in the offense. If you’re in a PPR setting, you could do worse than the receiving RB in Sean Payton’s RB check down offense.
21% rostered, 5% of FAAB
Similarly to Mc:Laughlin, it appears that Irving is going to have a steady role in the Buccaneers offense. He had 9 carries and 3 targets for 2 catches and 76 total yards of offense. I’m a little more uneasy about this move, but if I have Rachaad White on my team, then I’d want Irving as an insurance policy.
5% rostered, 5% FAAB
Tank had 12 touches for 73 yards in the Jaguars matchup with Miami. Travis Etienne also had 12 carries but only 44 yards, and he fumbled as he was about to score his 2nd TD of the game. While I did say don’t panic, I would be a little worried if I were a Travis Etienne owner. Etienne did have 70% of the snaps to Bigsby’s 32%, but I would expect Bigsby to continue to get at least similar touches in the future now that he looks more acclimated to the NFL in his second year.
4% rostered, 5% of FAAB
Not only was Hill the clear receiving RB with his 8 targets, 6 catches and 63 yards, but he out snapped Derrick Henry by playing in 54% of them while Henry was at 46%. Now some of that was because of the game script that played out in KC as Baltimore had to throw to keep up, but it’s clear that Hill will get a majority of the receiving down work. There will be games where Baltimore won’t need to utilize him that way, but in PPR scoring, Hill could be a diamond in the rough in the right matchups.
Waiver Wire WR Pickups
A quick note about WRs. Many top scorers on the waiver wire were the result of one play, either a deep passing play (Ashton Duhlin) or a long return on special teams (KaVontae Turpin). Don’t bank on those things happening every week. Though it was nice to see that returns could possibly be a thing again.
33% rostered, 10 – 15% of FAAB
Cooks’ week-to-week output will vary, but 5 to 7 targets a game is probably something we can count on, especially if Jake Ferguson is going to miss any time due to his knee injury.
3% rostered, 10% of FAAB
I mention Pierce, but I caution you all to probably just let him go if someone else in your league is going to overpay for him. While I like the idea that Anthony Richardson is going to be effective with the deep ball this season, I just don’t think Pierce will be this effective every week. His 3 targets could just have easily been incompletes, and Richardson targeted Adonai Mitchell more but overshot him twice.
3% rostered, 10% of FAAB
Man, I love it when I am right. Lazard is the one with the history with Aaron Rodgers and it showed on Monday Night Football. When Rodgers got the free play due to the 49ers being offsides, he knew exactly where Lazard would be and hit him for the long TD. A second one from Tyrod Taylor certainly didn’t hurt either. I think many see it as a foregone conclusion that Mike Williams was WR2 here. Maybe he will eventually be, but for now, it’s Allen Lazard. Don’t expect 9 targets every game, but a 20% share could be in line for Lazard.
6% rostered, 5% of FAAB
Claiming any of these three is directly related to the health of Puka Nacua. Without Nacua in the game, Robinson and Johnson both had 7 targets. Johnson had 5 catches for 79 yards while Robinson had 4 for 44. Whittington had a really good camp but was mostly deployed on special teams on Sunday night. He did have a jet sweep that went for a TD, but the play was called back due to a holding penalty. Admittedly, who would be in line for a larger role should Nacua prove unavailable is largely a guess, but Whittington looks to be the most talented of the bunch.
5% rostered, 5% of FAAB
The Cardinals lit the Dortch torch again. He had 8 targets and 6 receptions for 47 yards. He also got a rushing attempt and was used as a returner on special teams. Considering Michael Wilson has but one target, it appears that Dortch will be involved in the Cardinal offense in 2024.
5% rostered, 5% of FAAB
While I do not expect McMillan to get a TD every week, I do expect his role in the offense to grow over time. Jalen will likely be deployed as a deep threat in most games to start this season. In fact, all 3 of his targets could have arguably ended with him in the end zone. For this reason I already have McMillan in many of my leagues, but he’ll likely stay stashed until he becomes more consistent.
1% rostered, less than 5% of FAAB
I was holding out hope that Troy Franklin would assume the WR2 spot in the Denver offense, and maybe he still will, but his inactive status certainly makes it seem that that it is unlikely. It appears that spot will go to Reynolds who had 8 targets for 5 receptions and 45 yards. I don’t expect the Broncos to be all that good this season as Bo Nix adjusts to being a professional, but 8 targets is hard to ignore for the veteran Reynolds.
Waiver Wire TE Pickups
29% rostered, FAAB dependent on whether or not you have Mark Andrews
In any league where I drafted Mark Andrews, I also selected Likely as a late round handcuff. Now did I start him last Thursday? Of course not. The reason I have him there is because the TE position in the Raven offense is one of the best in football. When Andrews went down last year, Likely stepped and the production continued. Last Thursday was most likely (no pun intended) an outlier and not something to expect every week. So this comes down to whether or not you have Mark Andrews. If you do, and you now want protection, then it’s going to cost you. Someone in your league is going to use his or her priority or a good portion of their FAAB to get Likely as they assume he is now the primary TE for the Baltimore Ravens. I highly doubt that’s the case. If you don’t have Andrews, then let someone else overpay for Likely.
0% rostered, 0-5% FAAB
David Njoku is dealing with a high ankle sprain which could mean he sits for multiple weeks. In Njoku’s absence, Akins had 4 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards against the Cowboys. If you believe in the TE spot in Cleveland, Jordan Akins is now the primary TE there.
0% rostered, 0-5% FAAB
If Jake Ferguson is out for an extended period of time, these are the guys behind him on the depth chart. They each received 19 snaps this past Sunday, but neither was targeted in the passing game. If you’re a Ferguson owner, you can look here for the replacement or take a shot at this next group.
Chig Okonkwo / Hunter Henry / Juwan Johnson / Zach Ertz – all 25% or lower, 0% FAAB
Each one of these guys are going to be TD dependent, but they all have a steady spot on their team’s roster. If you are in need of TE and don’t want any of the backups, then I would recommend any one of these guys. My order of preference would be Johnson, Okonkwo, Henry, and Ertz.
