NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Sometimes moving forward requires looking backwards. Here is the last 10 players awarded with DROY:

A couple things should jump out. No DROY has come from the second round or later in the last 10 years. It’s not even close, in fact, Marcus Peters was the only winner that made it out of the top half of the first round. These are the players that were drafted in the top 20 picks of the NFL draft this year:

• Denzel Ward, CLE (Round 1, pick 4)
• Bradley Chubb, DEN  (1.5)
• Roquan Smith, CHI  (1.8)
• Minkah Fitzpatrick, MIA  (1.11)
• Vita Vea Rd 1, TB  (1.12)
• Da’Ron Payne Rd 1, WAS  (1.13)
• Marcus Davenport, NO  (1.14)
• Tremaine Edmunds, BUF  (1.16)
• Derwin James, LAC  (1.17)
• Jaire Alexander, GB  (1.18)
• Leighton Vander Esch, DAL  (1.19)

Injuries have been rampant among the 11 players drafted in the top-20 with a few likely to miss opening week.

• Denzel Ward is expected to start opening week but is dealing with back spasms and drew the ire of DC Gregg Williams.
• Roquan Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury that is a threat to his Week-1 status. Smith would have been one of my favorites if he was healthy. He’s on a defense which could be surprisingly good. If the injury news turns positive leading up to the opener, he’d be a good bet.
• Vita Vea missed most of training camp with a calf strain.
• Marcus Davenport missed a few weeks of training camp with a groin injury but is back on the field. Davenport at 6’6″ is more of a project player and may not make a huge impact in year 1.
• Leighton Vander Esch is working through a groin injury and has been all but ruled out to open the season.

One of the players left relatively unscathed is the DROY favorite, Bradley Chubb. Sometimes the favorite is the favorite for a reason. Denver’s defense was already good and now they added arguably the best defensive prospect in the draft. Bradley Chubb is healthy and has already made plays this preseason including a sack on Mitch Trubisky for a safety. He has health, opportunity, and talent on his side.

If you want something with some more juice on it, I’d take a look at Tremaine Edmunds. LBs and DTs that won DROY haven’t necessarily come from winning teams. Sacks, tackles, and turnovers are necessary to win DROY and Edmunds will be the centerpiece of the Buffalo defense. No one is exactly excited about Buffalo as a team, but Edmunds will be on the field enough to put up some gaudy counting stats.

Da’Ron Payne was selected 13th overall which is exactly where two previous DROY DTs were selected. He’s already shown the ability to clog up the middle to opposing RBs so hopefully, his sub-5-second 40-time can help him get the sacks needed to push for DROY. Not only have DTs been the DROY in three of the last ten years, Calais Campbell, Aaron Donald, and Cameron Jordan finished first, second and third in Defensive Player of the year voting last year. Player of the Year voters value dominant interior linemen.

Green Bay desperately needed to shore up a leaky secondary and selected CB Jaire Alexander 18th overall. They spent some more draft capital in the second round by selecting another CB in Josh Jackson. Jackson was widely considered a first-round talent but slipped in the draft. Through the first three weeks of the preseason, Josh Jackson has the highest PFF grade out of all CBs. Not just rookie CBs, all CBs! He had eight interceptions in his final year at Iowa and he returned an interception for a TD this preseason. There is some precedence for Alexander or Jackson to win DROY. The past two CBs that won both played on teams that went 11-5. Eleven wins is well within Green Bay’s range of outcomes.

Have a Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite? Comment below.