Tyler Lockett Fantasy Preview
Tyler Lockett is entering his 9th year in the league. When he was younger, I constantly felt like people thought they were being “sneaky” when it came to drafting him. In his first four years in the NFL, Lockett averaged 48.5 receptions, 695 yards receiving, and 4.8 TDs. If it wasn’t for his 2018 campaign, those averages would be much lower.
In his last four years, however, Lockett has averaged 84.8 receptions, 1,080 receiving yards, and 8.8 TDs. In those last few years, it feels like the shine has very much worn off of Tyler Lockett, and people no longer are prioritizing drafting him. Last year made some sense as many were skeptical about Geno Smith and this offense, but this year folks are gravitating more toward rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So what should we do with Tyler Lockett in 2023?
- Offensive Player of the Year +15,000 (BetMGM)
- Most regular season receiving TDs +4,000 (bet365)
- Most regular season receptions +6,600 (bet365)
- Most regular season receiving yards +4,000 (bet365)
- 1,500+ receiving yards +2,000 (bet365)
- 1,000+ receiving yards +240 (bet365)
- Higher/Lower 875.5 receiving yards (Underdog)
- Higher/Lower 6 receiving TDs (Underdog)
- Higher/Lower 73.5 receptions (Underdog)
I am comfortable going higher on all the Underdog props, but I’m not diving into any of the BetMGM or bet365 offerings as the odds are just not good enough. I will admit that it is entirely possible Geno Smith comes crashing back down to Earth after his career year in 2022, but Lockett’s consistency over the last 4 to 5 years, under different OCs and QBs, is suggestive of someone who can achieve those numbers yet again.
- ADP – 73
- WR ADP – 30
Tyler Lockett’s ADP has fluctuated over the summer. His ADP was higher in July, but as people have become enamored with JSN and his preseason highlights, Lockett’s ADP has fallen. Well, the latest news has Jaxon Smith-Njigba out for about a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken wrist, which is probably bailing people out to be honest. Tyler Lockett is, and will continue to be, the WR2 in this offense. He signed a 4 year contract extension in 2021 that will keep him with Seattle until 2026. Sure, the Seahawks could find a way out of the contract and move on from Lockett before 2026, but I bring this all up to urge everyone to be very careful with hype.
Fantasy Insight and Value
It’s no secret that I believe I think the Seahawks will be better than others do. To that end, Tyler Lockett is a steal if you grab him in the 7th round of drafts. In recent mocks that I’ve been doing, however, Lockett has been going prior to the 7th round.
Tyler Lockett is not going to be putting up crazy stats every week. In fact, he’ll probably have some spike weeks and some quiet weeks. But when the dust settles on the 2023 season, I anticipate that he will be right around his average receptions, yards, and TD numbers from the last four years. Even with a healthy Smith-Njigba on the field, Lockett is going to be on the field more often than not, and he’s still going to receive his fair share of targets.
As an aside, the attraction of something new, in this case Smith-Njigba, can cause us to miss what is directly in front of us. I’d say this is applicable to DK Metcalf as well. Metcalf and Lockett are the WR1 and 2 for the Seahawks. Do I like Smith-Njigba? Yes, I do. But it also may take some time for him to fully integrate into this offense, understand what it is like to be a professional, and work himself beyond a WR3 role. JSN had one, just one, good year in college. He has already displayed a knack for getting injured, whereas someone like Lockett has more than proved himself as an NFLer. To me, Lockett, and to a extent, Metcalf, are the WRs I would prefer to have in 2023.
The sun is probably setting on Tyler Lockett in dynasty leagues, though I do think he can help you win this year and even in subsequent years. If you’re just starting out in a brand new dynasty league, I doubt Lockett is even drafted outside of the last rounds. I would argue that unless you are in position to win this year, it might be time to jettison the 31 year-old Lockett and invest in some youth for the future.
79 grabs, just barely over 1,000 receiving yards, and 7 TDs in 2023.
*This is my personal opinion, which may or may not reflect site projections.*
Matt, aka Boris, had a friend in his high school freshman English class once mistakenly call him that, and the nickname has somehow stuck ever since. He has been playing fantasy football since the early 2000s and Daily Fantasy Sports since 2015. Boris has been writing about DFS since 2020 and is excited to be a part of GridIron Experts. He has a wife (proving someone can stand him) and a daughter. Boris loves the beach, skiing, hockey, soccer, and football. He attempts to teach high school English, and aspires to make a ton of money in DFS. Follow him on Twitter @Borisnow00.