Fantasy Football

Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Preview

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Fantasy Preview

Hailing from Fontana, CA, Tyler Allgeier had a stellar high school career in Kaiser High’s backfield. In his time there he amassed 614 carries for 5,086 yards and 56 TDs. Allgeier also added 41 receptions for 355 yards and 4 TDs. Despite this, he received but a 2 star score for recruiting and did not have many suitors. Allgeier ended up playing for BYU. In his collegiate career, he carried the ball 452 times for 2,899 yards and 36 TDs while adding 46 receptions for 437 yards and one score. This all led to Tyler Allgeier being selected by Atlanta in the 5th round of the 2022 draft.

In 2022 Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 210 times for 1,035 yards and 3 TDs, and he had 16 catches for 139 and a TD. He did all that despite the presence of Cordarelle Patterson who had 144 rush attempts, and Caleb Huntley who had 76. After such a solid rookie campaign, many fantasy players were looking forward to Allgeier’s future potential with Atlanta and in the NFL. If Tyler Allgeier could do all that with others in the backfield, imagine what he could do as he inherits more of an RB1 role. Well, after the Falcons selected Bijan Robinson with the 8th overall pick, Allgeier’s fantasy value plummeted.

While Robinson is going in the first round of most drafts, we are left trying to discern when or if to draft Allgeier.

Latest Odds

  • Offensive Player of the Year  +25,000 (BetMGM)

PROPS

As you can likely discern, there isn’t much action to be had on an RB who is projected to be a backup this 2023 season. The Offensive Player of the Year odds is not something I want to be involved in, but they Higher than 480.5 rushing yards almost seems to good to be true. If we assume that Allgeier stays healthy for 17 games, then he needs 28.3 rushing yards per game to achieve that number. Yes, please.

Current ADP

  • ADP – 110
  • RB ADP – 40

I had to get a little creative with assessing Allgeier’s ADP. Some sites are reporting an ADP of 91, while others have him listed at 130. The fluctuation could depend on the scoring system as Allgeier has minimal PPR value, but the discrepancies are probably due to the uncertainty around the depth chart when it comes to this backfield. Most roster charts are listing Tyler Allgeier as the RB2 for the Falcons, but Cordarelle Patterson is still here, and he is much more of a receiving threat, at least historically, than Allgeier is.

In any event, deciding whether or not to draft Allgeier in the 9th, 10th or 11th round comes down to two things:

  1. What your needs are.
  2. What you believe.

Fantasy Insight and Value

Let me explain. If you’re like me and believe what I believe, then there is one scenario and one scenario only in which I will consider drafting Tyler Allgeier in redraft leagues: did I draft Brian Robinson in the first round? If I did take a stab at Robinson in the first (unlikely), or if I acquired him in auction league (more likely), then Allgeier is definitely on my radar. Considering the state of the Falcons and their goals on offense, this backfield is poised to be one of the highest producing backfields in fantasy this year. Should Robinson suffer some kind of injury or even be out for a few games, then Allgeier becomes an immediate RB1 for fantasy. If I have Robinson, then I want to make sure I still get that production even if he isn’t playing.

That being said, Allgeier will likely produce even with the presence of Brian Robinson. There may be times when both RBs are on the field for RPOs. In that scenario it is entirely conceivable that Brian Robinson is one of the receiving options and Tyler Allgeier is the running option. Allgeier should also get work when Robinson needs to be spelled, and we have yet to see what personnel this offense will roll out in goal line situations. Now, I don’t think that makes Allgeier start-able over other RB and FLEX options, but it’s not like he’s useless either. The coaching staff has not historically displayed offensive creativity, so I am definitely hesitant there, but the offensive line is legit and running the ball is what this team wants to do.

Dynasty Value

I’m still in for Tyler Allgeier in dynasty. More and more often we see teams moving away from bell-cow RBs and instead employ 2, 3, or 4 RBs during games. It is possible that the Falcons become a two headed monster that they use for years. It is also possible that someone like Allgeier is eventually traded or not resigned because of the presence and likely future contract cost of Brian Robinson. While I would rather be investing in WRs and QBs for dynasty simply because their careers tend to last longer, Allgeier is still young enough for his best seasons to be in front of him.

Bold Prediction

Tyler Allgeier receives over 125 touches and eclipses 600 total yards in 2023.

*This is my personal opinion, which may or may not reflect site projections.*

 

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