Troy Franklin Fantasy Forecast 2024
Since he could walk. Troy Franklin could play football. Playing a bunch of positions in youth football, he moved to WR and defensive back full time in middle school. After being highly sought after in the California Bay area, Franklin attended Menlo-Atherton High and helped the school attain back-to-back state titles during his sophomore and junior season. He probably would have come close to a 3rd straight championship if it were not for the pandemic. He finished his high school career with with 102 grabs, 1790 yards, and 34 TDs.
Recruiting and Collegiate Background
Due to his many accomplishments, Troy Franklin ended up being a 4 star recruit with many D1 programs expressing interest. Franklin settled on the Ducks of Oregon. His freshman season was not impressive from a statistical point of view. He finished the season with 14 catches for 209 yards and 2 TDs. A big reason for the lack of production was due to the Oregon offense that year. QB Anthony Brown and the Ducks spent the majority of their time running the football. Their primary WR only accounted for 550 yards.
Everything changed in Franklin’s sophomore year with the arrival a new offensive scheme and a new QB in Bo Nix. The two immediately developed a rapport. When his three year college career was finished, Troy Franklin had amassed 160 receptions, 2483 yards and 25 TDs, and that was after Franklin’s subpar freshman year. He is now the all-time receiving touchdown leader for Oregon.
Troy Franklin fell to the 4th round, a big surprise as many pundits had him going in the first. Franklin was drafted by the Denver Broncos with the 102nd overall pick. His Oregon QB, Bo Nix, had been drafted 90 picks earlier by Denver as well.
Statistical and Athletic Notes
Below are the notes I made about Troy Franklin prior to this year’s draft.
- 4 star recruit
- Tall and thin, lots of speed, can run away from defenders
- Good at double moves to shake CBs
- Capable of full speed cuts after the catch
- Deceptive lower body strength
- 23 TDs as sophomore and junior display a knack for the end zone (skipping senior season)
- Shattered school records this past season
- Route tree needs improvement
- Slender frame like DeVonta Smith
- Lacks short range agility
- Issues with drops, especially in tight coverage…seems to not trust his hands and relies on body to complete catches
- Could struggle with press coverage
- Mediocre blocker
- Primarily a perimeter WR, likely a Z receiver in NFL
- Will be a deep threat, fantasy production based on landing spot
Rookie Odds
Franklin is currently +10,000 to win offensive rookie of the year. Bo Nix and Troy Franklin immediately stepping into the NFL and continuing their reign of terror? That’s worth a dollar to me.
The Good
Troy Franklin has a lot of raw, natural talent and instincts. His college highlight video is full of examples that show off his speed, shiftiness, and ability to make immediate cuts on defensive backs, even at top speed. His size makes his speed deceptive, and their are many examples of defensive backs getting caught off guard. His leg strength is also deceptive, and Franklin is willing to fight through tackles and first contact. Franklin has also stepped into a situation in which he can learn from veterans like Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds. His head coach is Sean Payton who has been attached to productive offenses in the past.
Also, when I first heard the pick, I quickly double checked the Bronco roster to make sure Marvin Mims was still on the team, which he is. Why would the Broncos draft another WR for that specific deep threat role? While one answer may be incompetence, a better one could be because they plan on using him differently.
The Bad
The fear here is that Franklin never becomes more than a Z receiver who is used in specific WR sets and passing situations. While he may even excel in such a role, his fantasy production could be limited. He spent over 80% of his collegiate time on the field on the outside. Should he be unable to learn new routes or a new playbook, he may remain a sort of one trick pony.
Also, we don’t truly know who the starting QB will be. While the Broncos are eyeing Nix as the future, Jarret Stidham and Zach Wilson have some veteran clout that likely give them they edge to be the week one starter. As long as one of those two is starting, Franklin’s upside would remain low.
Franklin fell pretty far in the draft. His combine didn’t really do him any favors and there are concerns about his hands.
2023 Redraft Fantasy Outlook
Troy Franklin is currently going around pick 176 in standard leagues. That’s the 15th round. Unless you have a glaring need on your team that needs filling, TE, DST, or Kicker for example, I have no problem swinging for the fences here. I’m pro-handcuff too so if you have someone like Courtland Sutton on your team already, I think it makes sense to take Franklin here.
Dynasty Outlook
The range of outcomes for these rookie WRs can be quite large. Many are seeing the Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers of the world as the more likely WR to find NFL and fantasy football success. For help with this one I went to Pro Football Reference. There haven’t been many WRs in the NFL with Franklin’s frame of 6’2, 180 lbs. Only three WRs with this frame have eclipsed 120 fantasy points in a season. As long as we don’t go into this one thinking we could have a WR1 for years, then he could be worth the shot. He could end up being a one trick pony, but if those highlights of his translate to the NFL, then the fantasy points will be there.
Bold Prediction
This season will be mostly a down year in terms of fantasy production for Troy Franklin. He won’t really start to produce with any sort of consistence until his 3rd season.
Fun Fact
In college Troy Franklin had a catch in 30 consecutive games.
