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Gridiron 3X: Top Projected DraftKings Plays Week 14

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Week 14 DraftKings Plays

It’s an interesting week in NFL DFS, with zero teams on bye and six teams playing on Thanksgiving. Regardless, your cash game goals should still remain the same.

If you’re playing cash games on DraftKings, your goal for each player on your roster should be to score three times his salary.

For example, Rishard Matthews is $5,100 on DraftKings this week. For Matthews to score three times his salary, he would need to produce 15.3 points (5.100 x 3).

Finding players who will score three times their salary can be difficult, but a stable set of projections should be your starting point.

Last year, Gridiron Experts’ projections were very efficient in finding these players — we’ll call them our Gridiron 3X.

Our projections are posted every Tuesday morning by Jody Smith — you can find them here.

In the table below, you’ll see how often the average player surpassed 3X his salary last season — only players who were projected for more than 5.0 points were included to remove injured players and those with minor roles. Next to it, you’ll see how often our Gridiron 3X guys surpassed 3X their salary. The difference between the two is in the final column:

Position Average Gridiron 3X Difference
QB 44.3% 53.0% +8.7%
RB 29.3% 48.6% +19.3%
WR 34.0% 41.1% +7.1%
TE 35.9% 42.1% +6.2%

So who fits the criteria in Week 14?

Quarterback

Andrew Luck, $6900, Projected 3.9x: After suffering a concussion in Week 11, Andrew Luck sat out Week 12’s game against Pittsburgh to get two weeks of rest and recovery. The time off appeared to do some good, as Luck torched the Jets in his return last week for 278 yards and four touchdowns. Luck will get a home matchup with the Texans this week and as six-point favorites in a game with a 47-point Vegas total, the Colts have the second-highest implied team total of the weekend (26.5). Luck is still relatively cheap at $6900 considering his salary in Week 1 was near the top of the list at $8300, so he’ll only need 20.7 DraftKings points to reach 3X value on Sunday. Bettors are expecting the Colts to do well, too, as 82 percent of the spread bets thus far have come down on Indianapolis at Sportsbook.ag. Given his salary and immense upside, Luck is one of the top quarterback plays in Week 14.

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Tyrod Taylor, $5400, Projected 3.8x: Tyrod Taylor appeared in this column last week but disappointed mightily in his matchup with Oakland as he scored just 14.64 DraftKings points. Perhaps we underestimated the travel factor, as Buffalo’s offense is worse on the road (20.4 points-per-game on the road versus 32.4 at home), and they had to fly across the country to Oakland. The Bills will return home this weekend against the Steelers and if the oddsmakers are correct (Bills are 1.5-point underdogs with a 47-point game total), this should be a close, high-scoring affair. Taylor’s salary is actually $300 cheaper than a week ago, so he’ll need just 16.2 points for 3X value this weekend. Don’t jump off the Tyrod train now — he is in a much better situation in Week 14.

Colin Kaepernick, $5800, Projected 3.5x: If you rostered Colin Kaepernick last week, there’s no other way to put it — that sucked. After completing just 1 of 5 passes for 4 yards, Kaepernick was benched against an injury-riddled Bears’ defense. Chip Kelly benched his quarterback to try to “provide a spark” but this move was just a one-week thing as Kaepernick is expected back under center on Sunday against the Jets. His salary, too, has dropped $300, so we’ll only need to spend $5800 on a quarterback that has been averaging nearly 60 rushing yards per game this season. His rushing ability gives him a floor that puts him in play every weekend on DraftKings, and now he has the added upside of facing a defense in Week 14 that has allowed four games of three-plus passing touchdowns this season. It will be tough to shake off last week’s performance, but Kaepernick is a great play in all formats.

Other Gridiron 3X QBs: Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Carson Palmer, Robert Griffin III, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Brock Osweiler, Bryce Petty, Matt Barkley, Drew Brees

Running Back

Isaiah Crowell, $3900, Projected 4.0x: It appears that Robert Griffin III will be back under center in Week 14 after spending the last twelve weeks on injured reserve, so running lanes should theoretically be more open for Isaiah Crowell alongside a dual-threat quarterback against the Bengals on Sunday. In Week 1 when Griffin played, Crowell averaged 5.2 YPC and scored a touchdown. Crowell’s production fell off over the course of the season, but the coaching staff recently realized they needed to increase Crowell’s workload and they’ve held to their promise — he’s averaged 17.5 touches per game over the last two weeks. For just $3900, it’s hard to find that kind of volume.

Latavius Murray, $5200, Projected 3.5x: In recent weeks, Latavius Murray has taken ahold of the Raiders’ backfield. In the last four games, he’s averaged 17.75 carries per game and he’s caught at least three passes in three of those four contests. As a result, his fantasy production has skyrocketed as he’s scored at least 14.2 DraftKings points in each game since Week 8 and scored 25-plus points on two separate occasions. His $5200 salary doesn’t currently reflect his involvement in the Oakland offense, so fire him up in all contest types.

David Johnson, $9800, Projected 3.0x: David Johnson is $9800 and PROJECTED to score three times his salary, which is just nuts to think about. He has the highest floor of any player on DraftKings (his lowest output this season is 15.4 DK points), but his ceiling is also massive — he’s scored at least 33 DK points in five different games this season. At this point, it doesn’t matter how expensive he is. There is no legitimate reason for you not to have David Johnson in your cash lineups and it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to fade him in tournaments. Seriously, DJ makes it a bit easier to create your lineups as one of your RB spots should auto-fill with his name each week.

Other Gridiron 3X RBs: Todd Gurley, Rob Kelley, Jerick McKinnon, Kenneth Dixon, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, Jordan Howard, Melvin Gordon, Christine Michael, Dion Lewis, LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Doug Martin, Matt Asiata, Le’Veon Bell, Tevin Coleman

Wide Receiver

Malcolm Mitchell, $4200, Projected 4.0x: With Rob Gronkowski gone for the season, Malcolm Mitchell will be forced into a much larger role in the Patriots’ offense. That accelerated path has already taken place, as he’s averaged more than 7 targets/game over the last three weeks. Chris Hogan returned last week and many expected Mitchell to take a back seat, but he actually led the Pats with eight receptions for 82 yards. Mitchell’s production last week wasn’t during limited playing time, either — he was on the field for 85 percent of the snaps. Mitchell is a young, dynamic receiver who is still vastly underpriced at $4200 given his expected target share in the New England passing game moving forward.

Jamison Crowder, $5600, Projected 3.2x: Jamison Crowder is enjoying a breakout season for the Washington Redskins, already nearly matching his rookie reception total in 12 games (58) while surprisingly reaching the end zone seven times. He’s become a trusted option for Kirk Cousins and has been a consistent weekly fantasy wide receiver. As a result, his salary has steadily increased since Week 7 and his $5600 Week 14 salary is $1800 more expensive than his Week 1 salary. In a division game with a 47.5-point total that has potential for a shootout, Crowder is a great mid-priced option that has both a high floor and a considerable ceiling.

Robby Anderson, $3000, Projected 3.1x: If you watched the second half of the Jets-Colts game on Sunday night 1) what in the world were you doing and 2) you noticed that Bryce Petty targeted Robby Anderson as much as possible. Given that the two have worked together all season on the second team offense, there’s certainly a connection there. Anderson may not see 12 targets again, but we can definitely expect his target share to increase with a quarterback that is more familiar with his game. Petty will start on Sunday which means that Anderson is a viable option in all formats with his minimum salary.

Other Gridiron 3X WRs: Marquise Goodwin, Julian Edelman, Ted Ginn, Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon LaFell, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Kenny Britt, Mohamed Sanu, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, Seth Roberts

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Tight End

Jermaine Gresham, $2500, Projected 4.4x: With all Cardinals receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald struggling this season, veteran tight end Jermaine Gresham has picked up the slack in the passing game. Despite reaching 3X salary in four consecutive weeks, Gresham’s salary has remained unchanged all season at $2500. He’ll likely never have a game where he scores 20 DK points, but he’ll consistently see at least five targets per game and provide solid totals for his minimum price. If you want to fit three stud running backs into your lineup, you’ll need to include some guys like Gresham.

Kyle Rudolph, $4000, Projected 3.7x: If you can afford the $1500 price jump from Gresham, Kyle Rudolph provides a similarly solid floor but with much more upside. He’s scored at least 10 DK points in 66 percent of his games this season, mostly thanks to his large target share — in the last two games alone, he’s totaled 22 targets. He can help win GPPs, too, as he’s hit 4X his salary in five different games this season. Rudolph is one of the safest bets at tight end to hit 3X value on a weekly basis.

Ladarius Green, $3900, Projected: 3.6x: Hopefully you read this article last week and inserted Ladarius Green into your DraftKings lineups. After weeks of limited playing time but encouraging signs of an increased role in the Steelers’ offense, Green had a coming out party in Week 13 with six catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. He played a season-high 35 snaps and was targeted a whopping 11 times. With Green as an explosive third option in the passing game, it decreases the likelihood of the entire offense putting up a dud in road games. His salary has jumped quite a bit, but he’s a walking mismatch who cannot be the focus of opposing defenses while catching passes from an excellent quarterback. How can you not put him in your lineup?

Other Gridiron 3X TEs: Dennis Pitta, Cameron Brate, Dwayne Allen, Vance McDonald, Delanie Walker, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Mychal Rivera

 

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About the author

Brian Jester

Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.

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