Props For Super Bowl LV
The Super Bowl, the most heavily bet game in terms of player props of the year, and for obvious reasons. Everyone wants a piece of the action, even if they don’t have a good read on who’s going to win. In fact, it’s estimated that over 60% of legal Super Bowl wagers are placed on props.
One of the most diverse prop markets is with the pass catchers – the wide receivers and tight ends – because there are so many different categories to choose from. There are touchdown scoring props, total receptions, receiving yards, and longest reception, to name a few.
Due to Covid-19 restrictions, this year’s Super Bowl party may cause people to flock more to online casino and Sportsbooks as opposed to actual Casinos and Super Bowl Parties, but that doesn’t mean it still can’t be a great day. Here are 10 of my favorites, in no particular order, and a brief write-up on each with a week still to go before the big game.
Note: I know the Super Bowl is an exciting game to bet on, but please gamble responsibly and only wager with money you’re comfortable losing. Don’t blindly bet on every prop listed here, this is meant to be a guide to help you pick your favorite props for the game.
Mike Evans OVER 4.5 Receptions (-110)
At first glance, you may think this is a really low total for Evans, but it’s actually not. He’s failed to record five or more catches in three of his last four games and has only done so in nine of 19 games this year. So why are we on the over here? Because despite holding opposing number-one wideouts in check so far in the playoffs, in terms of yards, the Chiefs have actually allowed their opponents’ top option to see a ton of volume.
In Kansas City’s first playoff game, they held Jarvis Landry to just 22 yards, but allowed him to catch seven passes. And then last week against Buffalo, they held Stefon Diggs to his sixth-lowest yardage output of the season, but still allowed him to catch six passes. Tom Brady is going to need to throw the ball one way or another in this game, and I anticipate him looking for Evans on jump balls inside the red zone. That may not be conducive to yards, but it’s conducive to catches, and that’s what we need here. Which leads me to…
Mike Evans Anytime TD (+125)
This and the earlier prop go hand-in-hand. He’s the big-bodied red zone threat for Tom Brady. Sure, Kansas City is more susceptible to the run than the pass, but Evans is good enough to win one-on-ones on the outside more often than not. He had 13 touchdowns in 16 regular-season games this season, and has a touchdown in each of the last two playoff games against much better corners (Marshon Lattimore and Jaire Alexander) than he’ll face on Sunday. I wish the odds were better, but I won’t get greedy. Plus money odds are always great, so let’s roll the dice here and bank on Evans catching his 16th touchdown this year.
Travis Kelce OVER 7.5 Receptions (-120)
Multiple times during these playoffs, the Chiefs have huddled up and the TV cameras have caught Mahomes pointing at Kelce saying “me and you”. When Mahomes needs a big completion, Kelce is his guy. And in the Super Bowl, he’s going to need big completions.
Kelce has recorded eight or more grabs in 13 of 19 games this season and nine of the last 10. He’s also coming off a 13-catch game in the AFC Championship game against the Bills. The Buccaneers have a great defense, and surely will try to prevent Kelce from making big plays in the middle of the field, but I fully expect Kansas City to adjust and pepper him with targets right at the first down marker.
Final point: The Bucs have struggled with tight ends these playoffs. Washington’s tight ends combined for six catches in the Wild Card round, New Orleans’ tight ends tallied the same amount in the Divisional round, and Green Bay’s tight ends had seven grabs in the NFC title game. Travis Kelce is light years better than any of the tight ends Tampa Bay has faced, and should sail over this number.
Tyreek Hill OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This number isn’t going to last for long, but I like it up to 92.5 in case it’s already moved by the time this is published. Tyreek Hill is a yards-after-catch machine – 152 of his 282 receiving yards this postseason have come after the catch. So, as much as I think the Bucs are going to try to prevent the deep ball, it almost doesn’t matter with Hill. He’ll just catch a screen and slip down the sidelines for 30 yards.
Hill was also a huge factor in the Super Bowl last year for the Chiefs, racking up 105 yards in that victory. And don’t forget, he absolutely torched the Bucs for 269 yards when these two teams met in the regular season.
Demarcus Robinson UNDER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Robinson has completely fallen out of favor in Kansas City, which is extremely odd considering Sammy Watkins has been out. In the Divisional round against Cleveland, Robinson had just one catch on three targets despite playing 71% of snaps. In the AFC title game, Robinson’s snap count dropped to 65%, behind Byron Pringle, and he didn’t see a single target.
Now, the Chiefs expect Sammy Watkins back for the Super Bowl who should slide right back into his usual role across from Tyreek Hill. With Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle in the picture, it’ll be tough to imagine Robinson seeing enough volume to justify this total. Leading me to…
Sammy Watkins OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
See above. He’ll slide right into Byron Pringle’s spot, who saw five targets last week. Watkins also had 98 yards receiving in last year’s Super Bowl, and should be an afterthought for the Tampa Bay secondary, who have to worry about Kelce and Hill.
Scotty Miller UNDER 1.5 Receptions (+120)
I love that we’re getting plus-money here. Antonio Brown will be back for the Buccaneers, so Miller’s snap count will plummet. Also, Tyler Johnson has made some tremendous, timely grabs for Tampa these playoffs, and he’s earned snaps on the big stage.
Scotty Miller has only had multiple catches four times since Week 4 and hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 8. Some think he may be used for gadget plays close to the goal line, but I don’t think the Bucs will mess around down there, I think they’ll just rely on the ground game.
Rob Gronkowski OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Gronk isn’t the same old Gronk. In Super Bowls past, you’d have put your life savings on an over like this for one of the best tight ends to ever play the game. However, I think there’s value on this line for three reasons.
One is obvious, he’s still a load to bring down after the catch, and we saw that last week in Green Bay. He had just one grab, but he rumbled for 29 yards. Hitting this won’t take more than two catches, which he’s still fully capable of.
Secondly, despite underwhelming in the playoffs and not hitting this total in two of the Buccaneers’ three games, he finished the year topping 28 yards in his last three games, four of his last five, and five of his last seven.
And lastly, the Chiefs struggle against tight ends. Dawson Knox had six catches for 42 yards last week, and the combination of Austin Hooper and David Njoku had six catches for 75 yards the prior week. Kansas City doesn’t get a ton of pressure on the quarterback, so I anticipate a few more routes and a few less occasions where Gronkowski is expected to block.
Mecole Hardman Anytime TD (+220)
These odds are much lower than you’d expect, I’d imagine, and I think that’s telling us something. The average Super Bowl bettor is looking to find a diamond in the rough with incredible odds, which would cause them to gloss right over Hardman. It’s hard to imagine Mecole Hardman being +220 to score a touchdown in the same Super Bowl where Mike Evans is +125. That tells me that the books have a read on something.
We have an advantage with Hardman, aside from the fact that he’s got blinding speed. He’s used in more ways than one. Not only is he catching passes, he’s getting shovel passes, he’s running the football, and he’s playing on special teams. I don’t think we’ll see a ton of punts in this one, but if we do, Hardman has the ability to bring one to the house if he’s got the room. I think this one is worth a flier, especially after he gained so much confidence last week after his muffed punt.
First Scoring Play of the Game: Passing TD (+150)
Both of these quarterbacks’ passing yards props are close to or above 300 yards. We’ve got four pass catchers with receiving yards props over 60, and two whom will most likely close in the 90s. The five best skill position players on the field are receivers (counting Kelce). There’s just a ton of factors leaning in this direction, and at plus-money, it’s got value.
I’d rather not pick a specific player, because we may see some out-of-the-box play calling early on. But, I’m comfortable leaning towards these dynamic pass catchers on both sides.
Mike is an avid sports bettor and fantasy football player, and has been writing since 2013. He previously worked for NBC Sports Philadelphia and Alliance Football Focus, and currently contributes to BettingPros as a featured writer. Mike is a resident of New Jersey, a graduate of Rider University, and currently works as a research analyst. When he isn’t searching for his next wager or watching the New Jersey Devils, Mike enjoys spending time with his wife, his dog and his two cats.