Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
After leading the New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl in their hometown 16 years ago, Sean Payton is making a triumphant return, but this time, he’ll be donning a different set of colors. Both clubs are coming off disappointing home losses in Week 6, so the stakes are high for Thursday Night Football’s matchup at the Superdome.
Remember when we thought the Saints might be back? They started the season 2-0, and people regretted not drafting Derek Carr late in their fantasy drafts. Well, you can relax cause injuries have cut New Orleans’ legs out; they are currently on a four-game losing streak. Bronco fans on the other hand, are blown away their team is somehow 3-3. You never know who will show up with this team; Bo Nix has looked great at times and bench-worth at others. Rookie quarterback seasons are always strange, making tonight’s game extra tricky to predict as Spencer Rattler is set to start under center once again as quarterback Derek Carr sits out for another week. To make matters worse, in his time, Rattler won’t have his key targets, Rashid Shaheed (knee surgery) or Chris Olave (concussion), for tonight’s game. On top of that, the offensive line is battling several injuries, notably that of guard/center Lucas Patrick (chest; questionable) and kicker Cesar Ruiz (out), who both missed last week’s practice and are still nursing injuries heading into this game.
Personally, I think this is the type of game that would be more enjoyable if you took some prop bets.”
Let’s add:
The total points for tonight’s game is 37, the lowest total of the NFL week 7. NFL best bets seem to be leaning towards the over, as rookie quarterbacks make mistakes, and a pick-6 or fumble could easily set either team up for easy scoring. The Saints are 4-2 hitting the over, 1-0 with Rattler under center. The Broncos are 3-3 on the season. Personally, I think this is the type of game that would be more enjoyable if you took some prop bets. If you plan on doing that, you should definitely take a look at Doc’s NFL best bets before moving forward.
Prop Bet Season Record
- 17-9 on the Season
- 1-2 Last Week
Over 223 Pass & Rush Yards
Bo can scramble. He did it at Oregon, and he’s slowly working it into his game as the Broncos starting QB. Last week, the rookie had 61 yards on the ground from just six attempts. He also threw for 216 yards after a prolonged start. The Broncos are extremely slow starters. They have trouble moving the ball early in games and haven’t put any points on the scoreboard in the first quarter going back three games now. Starting fast is a goal the team seems focused on, and if that means Bo picking up more yards running the ball, then this stat should be easy to hit.
Over 213.5 Pass & Rush Yards
Very similar situation for Rattler. Without his top two wide receivers, this prop might look difficult to hit, but keep in mind that he only played one game with Olave and Shaheed and probably has more chemistry with the depth players anyways. Bub Means saw eight targets, hauling in 5 receptions for 45 yards and a score last week. He, along with Kamara and some veteran tight ends should see a heavy dose of targets tonight. Rattler also added 27 yards on four attempts on the ground. His ability to run the ball makes me think both rookies hit the over tonight.
Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
I always correlate my bets. If we need Nix to hit the over on his passing yards, then someone needs to catch the ball. Sutton has played four games this year where he saw 6+ targets but only had over 45 yards thrice. The chemistry isn’t great, but it’s getting better. The Saints defense has allowed the sixth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing wideouts in the last three weeks.
Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
It’s the same logic as the Sutton pick; we want to pair our props together. This not only makes sense, but it’s also the most entertaining play as a sports fan. I don’t recommend parlaying all these picks together, but who am I kidding? That’s precisely what you’re going to do.
Means should operate as the Saints WR1 this week. Last week against the Bucs, Means had a 70.8% route share, a 20% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, one end zone target, and a team-leading 26.9% first-read share. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Levi Wallace (71.4% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating) and Riley Moss (60.5% catch rate and 77.7 passer rating).
It’s only 35.5 yards; he could do it on two catches.
4 Leg Parlay: +700
