DraftKings

Thursday Night Football Showdown: Lions vs Packers

Jordan Love

Thursday Night Football Showdown

It is Week 4, and Week 3 was a bamboozle. Not the Thursday Night game; it went on as planned. The DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown had a three-way tie for first place with 119.75 points.

Last week, the final score was the San Francisco 49ers 30, the New York Giants 12. The winning lineup was as follows:

  • Captain: Deebo Samuel, 42.15
  • Flex: Christian McCaffrey, 22.90
  • Flex: Brock Purdy, 23.30
  • Flex: George Kittle, 16.00
  • Flex: Darren Waller, 5.00
  • Flex Ronnie Bell, 10.40

The winning lineup was 5:1. But enough of talking about contests I did not win. Let’s move on to this week, where we will win.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Lines

  • Lions, -1
  • Over/Under 45.0
  • Moneyline

Injury Report (Check Before Game Report)

Detroit Lions

RB David Montgomery, QUESTIONABLE (thigh); FB Jason Cabinda, OUT (knee); OT Taylor Decker, QUESTIONABLE (ankle); OT Matt Nelson, OUT (ankle); G Jonah Jackson, QUESTIONABLE (thigh); G Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OUT (knee); CB Emmanuel Moseley, QUESTIONABLE (knee/hamstring); S Kerby Joseph, QUESTIONABLE (hip)

Green Bay Packers

RB Aaron Jones (hamstring); WR Christian Watson (hamstring); OT David Bakhtiari (knee); OT Zach Tom (knee); G Elgton Jenkins (knee); EDGE Rashan Gary (knee); LB De’Vondre Campbell (ankle); CB Jaire Alexander (back); CB Carrington Valentine (biceps); S Zayne Anderson (hamstring)

Prop Bets

There are several prop bets for the Thursday Night Showdown game. Here are three favorites:

Jared Goff, 33.5 passing attempts, -125 (over)

Goff has attempted 35,35 and 33 passing attempts in his previous three games.

Jordan Love, 32.5 passing attempts, -102 (under)

Love has attempted 27, 25, and 44 passing attempts in his three previous games.

Jayden Reed, 2.5 receptions, -178 (over)

Reed’s prop bet is dependent upon several factors. While Reed plays 73% of the snaps from the slot, the Packers’ use of multiple personnel puts a ceiling on route run rate, which the return of Watson could also compromise.

Reed has two, four, and three receptions for his previous three games.

The Game

The Lions neutral pace rate is 21st, and their passing rate is 27th. The Packers’ neutral pace rate is 18th, and their neutral passing rate is 24th. This game projects to be mind-numbingly slow.

The Quarterbacks

Goff is playing at a high level. He is fifth in passing yards (819), second in yards per attempt (8.0), and fifth in pressured completion percentage (66.7%).

The Packers’ defense is 11th best in pressure rate and blitz rate. They have held opposing quarterbacks to the 11th-lowest yards per attempt while allowing the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. It should be noted the quarterbacks the Packers have faced are Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, and Derek Carr/Jameis Winston.

The Packers typically play zone coverage on 70-83% of their defensive plays. Goff has the eighth-highest yards per attempt and second-highest fantasy points on dropbacks against the zone.

Love ranks 28th in passing attempts (96) and 23rd in passing yards (655). He is also first in fantasy points per dropback (0.80), second in fantasy points per game (22.9), and third in air yards per attempt (9.5).

The Detroit defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the 12th lowest yards per attempt and the 17th fewest fantasy points per game. The Lions utilize zone coverage on approximately 62-66% of their defensive plays. Love is 19th in passer rating and has the highest turnover-worthy throw rate against zone coverage.

Advantage Goff, however, it is worth mentioning that Goff’s history leans towards much better stats at home than away. And that Love has played without key running back, wide receiver, and offensive tackle, two of whom may return for the Thursday Night Showdown.

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs ranks fifth in missed tackles and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Last week, Gibbs had 17 rushing attempts, 80 yards, and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt. He was also targeted twice, with one reception for two yards.

For the season, Gibbs has 56.8% routes run per team with a 25.7% target share. The Packers have allowed 67 receptions and 529 receiving yards to the running back position.

Montgomery may also limit Gibbs’s usage if he is healthy. When playing with Montgomery, Gibbs was on the field for 27% and 48% of the offensive snaps compared to Montgomery’s 79% and 45%.

A.J. Dillon is a dart throw if Aaron Jones cannot suit up. Among 59 qualifying running backs, Dillon ranks 38th in yards after contact per attempt and does not have one breakaway run. Last week, Dillon had 11 rushing attempts for 33 yards.

Last week, Detroit’s defense held the Atlanta Falcons to 2.2 yards per attempt. Bijan Robinson was held to 33 yards and averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a no-brainer. Even on a limited slate, he is in the lineup. Last week, he ran a route on 100% of Goff’s dropbacks with a 36.4% target share. St. Brown will see Kersean Nixon on the majority of his routes. Nixon is allowing a 90.9% catch rate and 130.7 passer rating on 51% of his coverage from the slot.

The Packers do struggle with the deep ball. They have the sixth-worst passer rating allowed on passes of 20 yards or more. St. Brown leads the Lions with five deep targets.

Romeo Doubs leads all Packers with a 72.4% route run per team dropback rate. He also has a 20% target share, which leads the team. Against zone coverage, Doubs ranks second on the team in target share (18%) and first read share (21.3%).

Doubs’ ceiling is dependent on whether Watson returns to the lineup. Then Watson becomes the WR1.

Advantage St. Brown almost always.

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave leads the team in target share (21.3%) and first-read share (23.4%) against zone coverage. The Lions allowed 860 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns to the tight end position.

Sam LaPorta is third on the team in target share (21.4%) and is second behind St. Brown in target share against zone coverage. The Packers have given up 536 receiving yards and seven touchdowns to the tight end position.

Advantage push

Player Pool

Here are a few basic things to remember when choosing your players.

  • The Captain position scores 1.5 times more and costs 1.5 times more salary.
  • At least one player from each team must be rostered. You can go 5:1, 4:2, or 3:3.
  • Statistically, a quarterback, running back, and wide receiver are best to put in the Captain spot.
  • The Captain should come from the favored team 90% of the time.
  • Vegas totals matter.

Players to Consider Not Previously Mentioned:

  • Just as you would in a multi-team GPP, remember injuries, both those coming back and those covering for the injured player.
  • Although the usage of tight ends is generally frowned upon, in this instance, both tight ends are viable play.
  • Kalif Raymond’s route run rate has increased to 50%. He is second on the team in deep targets with four.
  • Josh Reynolds is a bounce-back candidate after having zero targets last week. Reynold has an 11.7 target share and a 19.8% air yard share. He only has one red-zone target.
  • Packers’ wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks was targeted six times, with four receptions for 45 yards last week.
  • Lions’ wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. was not targeted last week. In Week 1, he had one target, and in Week 2, he had six targets. He is averaging a 36% snap share.
  • Wide receiver Samori Toure last week saw three targets for two receptions.

Captain Consideration

The first thing to remember is that whomever you choose as Captain, their salary will increase by 1.5 times. So, the chalky considerations will limit your other lineup considerations.

  • Brown, $17,400, 17.42 projected Captain ownership
  • Love, $14,700, 17.57 projected Captain ownership
  • Goff, $15,600, 16.61 projected Captain ownership

My Lineup for NFL Showdown $15K Daily Dollar {Single Entry}

Captain: Sam LaPorta, TE,$12,000 (Yes, my love for tight ends in the Captain spot knows no bounds. This is a high price for a tight end, but when you look at the slate, almost everyone is overpriced this week.)

Flex: Kalif Raymond, WR, $5,200

Flex: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, $9600 (There is the possibility that Montgomery comes back and vultures Gibbs, but Gibbs’s upside in the receiving game is what I’m banking.)

Flex: Jared Goff, QB, $10,400 (Fading St. Brown on this roster allows me to get Goff; Goff allows me to get some of St. Brown still.)

Flex: Romeo Doubs, WR,$8,800 (This is risky if Watson comes back in full form. But Doubs has been Love’s favorite, and on a short week, that shouldn’t change.)

Flex: Marvin Jones Jr., WR, $2,000 (Jones did not have a target last week. He is my best option on what is available, and I also believe that Jaire Alexander will spend lots of time with St. Brown, opening up the rest of the receiving corps.)

 

This lineup leaves $2,000 on the table. If Jones wasn’t the last pick, both defenses are available.

Good Luck!

 

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