DraftKings

Thursday Night Showdown Jets vs Browns

Breece Hall

Thursday Night Showdown Jets vs Browns

It is Week 17, and we are getting the Thursday Night Showdown game we didn’t know we needed, but we do. Of course, when the schedule was first released, this marquee matchup held the promise of two teams in the playoff hunt with Aaron Rodgers vs. DeShaun Watson. Well, some of it is true. The Browns are definitely in the playoff picture. Okay, one thing is true. And instead of Rodgers v Watson, we get Trevor Siemian v Joe Flacco.

The Browns will enter the game 10-5 and second in the AFC North, precariously hanging on to the sixth spot in the playoffs. If the playoffs started today, the Browns would play the reeling Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jets are 6-9, and you know they aren’t at the bottom of the AFC East. That position is firmly held by the 4-11 New England Patriots. The Jets are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Here is the deal: We are reverting to a low predictive total (34.5), with one team having everything to play for and the other playing. The Browns are exceptionally good at home, and the Jets are not so great on the road. The Jets rushing offense has five rushing touchdowns at one versus one away. Their passing game has seven touchdowns and five interceptions when playing at home. It is three passing touchdowns and nine interceptions when they go on the road. Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense only gives up 110.5 passing yards and 81.4 rushing yards when defending Browns Stadium.

We know of the Jets’ defense, especially the secondary, with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed being the most explosive duo. The Jets’ defense has shown a little hiccup when playing on the road. They have allowed seven touchdowns at home with a 56.3% completion percentage. They have also grabbed 12 interceptions. On the road, they have allowed a quarterback to complete 69% of their passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

In Flacco’s four games, he hasn’t passed for less than 254 yards (and that was the first game since he has over 300 passing yards) and has thrown multiple touchdowns in all four games. He has also tossed in three and two interceptions in his last two games.

Last week, Flacco’s prowess had wide receiver Amari Cooper scoring a mind-boggling 51.5 fantasy points. Cooper had 15 targets. He finished with 11 receptions, 265 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The Jets won on the back of running back Breece Hall, who was equally impressive with his 43.1 fantasy points. Hall did it with 20 rushing attempts for 95 yards, two touchdowns, and 12 receptions for 96 yards. Hall was on the receiving end of a whopping team-leading 16 targets.

This game pits the Browns’ offensive strength against the Jets’ defensive strength and the Jets’ two offensive studs, Hall and Garrett Wilson against Myles Garrett. The Browns’ defense is first in passing yards allowed and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game against the Jets offense, giving up the second most fantasy points to defenses.

LINES

The lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, Wednesday afternoon.

  • Moneyline: New York Jets +270; Cleveland Browns -340
  • Spread: Jets +7.5 (-120); Browns -7.5 (+100)
  • Total: o 35 (-108); u 35 (-112)

DFS: PLAYING THE GAME

DraftKings, Yahoo, and FanDuel have Showdown Tournaments for you. This specific article is specific to DraftKings. The difference is the scoring system. DraftKings has a PPR scoring system with bonus points given to the quarterback, wide receiver, and running backs. Each position can get three bonus points. The quarterback gets his bonus points for passing for 300+ yards. The running back and wide receivers get their three points if they rush or receive for 100+ yards.

The DraftKings Showdown Tournament requires you to roster six players. At least one of these players must come from the opposing team. You must also designate one player to be in the Captain’s spot. The Captain will receive 1.5 times more fantasy points. His salary will also be multiplied by 1.5 times, which is where your strategy comes into play.

It is important to remember that the Showdown slate is game script-dependent. How you think the game will play out is how you will construct your roster. What players will be pivotal in the outcome of the game? A few things to remember, particularly in this game: pocket quarterbacks typically need two of their pass catchers to be relevant in the Captain’s spot, and if you put a wide receiver in the Captain’s spot, he isn’t getting there without the quarterback, but it is possible, and most likely he gets there without two more pass catchers from his team.

It also makes a difference if you are playing single-entry GPP or multi-entry. In a single-entry tournament, you get just one shot at predicting the right game script and will be less adventurous in your roster makeup. In a multi-entry GPP, you are going to get a little weird. You will want to construct the roster with chalky players at your peril. Also, you are always looking for the one player who will smash it that no one else is considering.

INJURIES From Fox Sports

Browns Injuries:

Jets Injuries:

PROP BETS

These props and odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Joe Flacco has over 230.5 passing yards (125)

The Jets defense is stingy. In Week 15, the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa had 224 passing yards on 24 attempts. Tagovailoa’s average is 280.9.

Last week, the Commanders’ combo of Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell combined for 156 passing yards on 35 attempts. Howell passed for 56 yards. His previous average was 241.6 passing yards.

Flacco’s average in his four games is 326.8 passing yards. Call me an optimist, but the over is doable on a short week, with David Njoku and Cooper accounting for 309 yards last week.

  • J. Mosley under 4.5 solo tackles (-120)

The Jets’ defense spends a lot of time on the field. Mosley has had 3, 5, 2, and one solo tackles. This is a short week for those who also have to travel. This bet is hedging that Mosley will not surpass his three-game average of three solo tackles.

  • This prop bet comes to you from DraftKings Quick Same Game Parlay

Breece Hall-Anytime TD Scorer; Hall over 48.5 rushing yards; Wilson over 47.5 receiving yards (+675)

CAPTAIN’S SPOT

This game is a game that you could reasonably expect to have a 4:2 or 5:1 stack. I will divide the captain’s spot between single-entry captains and GPP captains.

Single Entry

WR, Amari Cooper, $16,800

QB, Joe Flacco $15,900

TE, David Njoku, $11,700

RB, Breece Hall, $16,500

Here is the issue: the game script prediction for single entry has the Browns dominating Siemian and the Jets’ offense. If you insist on getting different, Hall is used in both the running and the passing games and, therefore, has the most upside.

GPP

Of course, all those mentioned above and:

WR, Garrett Wilson, $14,700

If you are doing a 5:1 build, the Jets offense is funneled through Hall and Wilson. As you have to have at least one player from the opposing team, having a Jets player who should get most of their fantasy points isn’t the craziest idea.

RB, Jerome Ford, $12,600

All cards on the table; Ford is not my favorite play at Captain. But the way to attack the Jets’ defense is on the ground. The problem is that Ford has averaged 1.7 yards per carry (Week 16), 2.5 yards per carry (Week 15), and 4.3 yards per carry (Week 13). That is not a trajectory that gives you the warm and fuzzies.

But there is a fleeting narrative where Ford might get there on touches alone. He has had 12, eight, and 15 carries in the past three weeks.

WR, Elijah Moore, $9,900

Moore gets 30% of his fantasy points in the slot (compared to 24% for Cooper). Staying away from Gardner and Reed necessitates getting the middle involved. Which brings us to….

RB, Kareem Hunt, $7,800

Hunt may be the steal of the game. If Flacco continues to chuck the ball (he has not had less than 42 attempts per game) and he is dumping it off, Hunt has the skill set.

However, Ford averages 3.8 targets per game, and Hunt averages 1.4.

DST, Cleveland, $8,400

Siemian has three interceptions in his last two games. He also has been sacked twice. The Jets offense is allowing the second-most fantasy points to the defensive position. There are crazier stacks if you are entering multi-entry GPP.

FLEX OPTIONS

TE, Tyler Conklin, $5,000

Conklin is the third most targeted player on the Jets. He has not, however, scored a touchdown yet this season.

K, Riley Patterson, $4,800

Dustin Hopkins is out for the game. Patterson will be the kicker for the Browns.

K, Greg Zuerlein, $4,600

Zuerlein has an injury designation, so monitor his status.

DST, Jets, $4,000

Flacco has thrown five interceptions in his last two games. The Browns offensive line is suffering from injuries.

 

Good Luck and Happy New Year!

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