Broncos Seek Seventh Straight Win Against Struggling Raiders on Thursday Night
The Denver Broncos return home riding the NFL’s longest active winning streak (tied with the Patriots) as they host the Las Vegas Raiders in a Thursday Night Football showdown that could solidify their grip on the AFC West. Denver enters at 7-2 after rallying past Houston in Week 9, while the Raiders limp into Mile High at 2-6 following a heartbreaking overtime loss to Jacksonville.
This AFC West rivalry takes on new meaning in 2025. The Broncos have won their last two meetings after enduring an eight-game losing streak to the Raiders from 2020 through 2023. Now Denver stands atop the division with a chance to build separation before hosting Kansas City in Week 11. The Raiders, meanwhile, search for answers under first-year head coach Pete Carroll as their playoff hopes fade into the Colorado night.
Contrasting Trajectories Define Division Clash
The Broncos have mastered the art of the comeback. Bo Nix has orchestrated seven fourth-quarter or overtime comebacks in just 26 career starts, matching Tim Tebow and trailing only John Elway and Peyton Manning in franchise history. Denver has trailed at some point in all nine games this season, yet sits at 7-2. The offense has been inconsistent but clutch, while the defense ranks third in yards allowed and fourth in points allowed.
Las Vegas presents a far different picture. Geno Smith’s first season with the Raiders has been turbulent. Through eight games, he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, including a brutal 67-yard, zero-touchdown performance in a Week 7 shutout loss to Kansas City. The Raiders showed life in Week 9 when tight end Brock Bowers returned from a three-game absence with 12 catches, 127 yards, and three touchdowns, but they couldn’t finish, falling 30-29 in overtime after a failed two-point conversion.
Nix’s Fourth-Quarter Magic Meets Vegas’ Desperation
The storyline centers on Nix’s remarkable late-game execution. Over the past three weeks, he’s completed 68 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter for 494 yards, four touchdowns, and a 104.0 passer rating. Against the Giants in Week 7, Denver scored 33 points in the final quarter alone to erase a 19-0 deficit. Against Houston, Nix orchestrated a game-winning drive with key scrambles of 25 and nine yards to set up the decisive field goal.
Smith needs a bounce-back performance after his benching against Kansas City. The veteran quarterback reunited with Carroll this offseason, signing a lucrative extension, but has struggled with decision-making and deep-ball accuracy. He’s completed just 39.3 percent of passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield with eight interceptions on those attempts. However, his Week 9 performance against Jacksonville showed promise, as he completed 29 of 39 passes for 284 yards and four touchdowns with Bowers healthy.
Offensive Matchups: Speed vs. Pressure
Denver’s defense leads the NFL with 40 sacks and a plus-31 sack differential. Edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have combined for 15 sacks, while the Broncos rank first in sack percentage. The Raiders’ offensive line allowed 28 pressures against Jacksonville but only gave up two sacks, suggesting improved pass protection. Smith must get the ball out quickly to avoid Denver’s relentless pass rush.
The absence of Patrick Surtain II creates opportunities for Las Vegas. Bowers presents a matchup nightmare for linebackers and safeties, particularly in the Raiders’ favored 12 personnel sets with two tight ends. Denver’s Riley Moss will need to step up in coverage, but Bowers’ route running and yards-after-catch ability could exploit the Broncos’ secondary depth.
For Denver’s offense, the matchup favors its rushing attack. The Broncos have averaged 133.6 rushing yards per game, and the Raiders rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play on defense. Nix’s dual-threat ability combined with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey should find success on the ground. The Raiders allowed 27 second-half and overtime points to Jacksonville, raising questions about their defensive stamina.
Defensive Matchups: Elite Unit Tests Revamped Offense
Denver’s defense is the backbone of its success. They’ve held four opponents without a touchdown this season and rank second in passing touchdowns allowed with just eight. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph schemes to take away the opponent’s best weapon, which means Bowers will see constant attention. The Broncos held Houston to 268 total yards in Week 9 and limited Dallas to minimal production in Week 8.
Las Vegas must establish Ashton Jeanty early to keep Denver’s pass rush honest. The young running back totaled 89 scrimmage yards and forced nine missed tackles against Jacksonville. He’s gaining 1.12 yards before contact in October, up from 0.19 early in the season, showing improvement from the offensive line. However, Denver’s front seven ranks eighth against the run, presenting a stiff challenge.
X-Factors That Could Swing Thursday Night
- Brock Bowers’ health and usage will determine the Raiders’ offensive ceiling. When healthy, he’s a game-changer who can exploit Denver’s secondary without Surtain. If the Broncos double-team him, it opens opportunities for Tre Tucker and the Raiders’ other receivers.
- Bo Nix’s ability to avoid early mistakes will be crucial. The Broncos have fallen behind in every game this season. Against a desperate Raiders team on a short week, Denver needs to avoid digging another hole. Nix has excelled in the fourth quarter but has struggled earlier in games, posting mediocre numbers through three quarters against Houston.
- The Denver pass rush against Las Vegas’ offensive line will dictate the game’s tempo. If Bonitto and Cooper can collapse the pocket and force Smith into hurried throws, the Broncos’ secondary can capitalize with interceptions. Smith has been prone to turnovers this season, particularly on downfield attempts.
DFS Picks
The goal of any winning DFS Showdown lineup is to find the player with the best value to put in the captain position. You have to be confident they they will be top 3 in fantasy output for the game. There are two ways to go: make Bo Nix your captain and try to make your lineup different enough that you’ll separate yourself from the pack, or pick a guy who has been ice cold and hope for a bounce-back game. My pick tonight hasn’t been playing great, and will likely be owned by fewer than most, which is why I like him. On DraftKings, I like Evan Engram at $6,600. This allows you space to add talent across the board for cheap. TNF can we weird, so try not to be so chalk.
Injury Report Impact
Denver will miss Surtain’s shutdown corner presence, opening the door for Bowers and the Raiders’ passing attack. Marvin Mims’ absence removes a key role player from the Broncos’ offense, though they showed against Houston they can win without him.
Las Vegas is relatively healthy after the bye week. Bowers’ return changes everything for their offense. His 112 receptions and 1,194 yards as a young player in 2024 established him as one of the NFL’s elite tight ends. With him on the field, Smith has a reliable safety valve against Denver’s pressure.
Keys to Victory
For Denver to extend their winning streak, it must start fast and avoid the fourth-quarter dramatics. Establish the run early with Dobbins to control the clock and keep the Raiders’ offense on the sideline. The defense needs to generate turnovers against Smith, who has 11 interceptions in eight games. If the Broncos force Las Vegas into obvious passing situations, their pass rush will dominate.
Las Vegas needs to protect Smith and get Bowers involved early and often. The Raiders must convert on third down to sustain drives and prevent Denver’s offense from building momentum. Carroll should use 12 personnel extensively to create favorable matchups with Bowers and Michael Mayer. Jeanty needs 20-plus touches to wear down Denver’s defense and open play-action opportunities downfield.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Raiders 17
The Broncos’ fourth-quarter magic won’t be necessary this time. They’ll build a comfortable lead and cruise to their seventh consecutive victory, moving to 8-2 and maintaining first place in the AFC West heading into their crucial Week 11 showdown with Kansas City. The Raiders fall to 2-7, and questions about Smith’s future as the starter will intensify during their upcoming bye week. See all our free Week 10 NFL Picks Here
