Thursday Night Football Parlay
Week 2 of the NFL Season starts with an AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. After both teams walked away with wins in the open weekend, the Bills and Dolphins are battling for an early advantage in the divisional title race.
Due to a change in Josh Allen’s weaponry, many had predicted that the Bills’ offensive output would decline in 2024. However, to everyone’s surprise, Josh Allen was still able to put up decent numbers last week in what was considered a very sluggish performance league-wide.
The Dolphins’ roster is among the best in the league, but that talent hasn’t translated into much success versus the Bills. When facing the division foe, Tua Tagovailoa has a 1-6 record as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback since 2020–21. Over that time, the Dolphins’ expensive quarterback has only ever surpassed a 70.0 PFF passing grade versus Buffalo, even though wins aren’t a quarterback stat, and that squad turnover changes from season to season.
Josh Allen, on the other hand, is 6-0 in his career on Thursdays.
For this Thursday Night Football parlay, I’m going to avoid picking the winner straight up or against the spread. I originally had the Dolphins to win, but have flip-flopped a few times. I think this should be a great game that will likely come down to the final drive of the game.
Betting Tip
The key to creating a winning Thursday Night Football Parlay is to add enough elements to get your odds high but not to go overboard on the number of legs. You want to set reasonable goals, and if you aren’t crazy about one of the player props, simple lower the odds.
For example, my sports book has a section called “milestones,” which sets prop bet yardage markers at 25, 50, 75, 100, etc. If you don’t like Tyreek Hill’s yardage total at 94.5 yards (-110) you can get him at 75 yards (-240). Obviously, those odds don’t pay as well as -110, but in a parlay, you want to try to make sure you fill comfortable of hitting the totals.
The following is my Thursday Night Football Parlay for week 2
Thursday Night Football Parlay: Leg 1
Most people are looking at yardage total, but Tyreek Hill has had only 38 catches for 366 yards and two touchdowns in the 7 games against the Bills in his career. He has never had more than 82 yards versus the Bills. However, Tyreek has had four games in which he has had seven catches against them. With the injuries hitting the RB room hard and on a short week, I think Hill has a hefty target share in this game.
Thursday Night Football Parlay: Leg 2
The Dolphins had issues trying to stop the run last week. Tank Bigsby averaged 6.1 yards per carry. He and Etienne combined for 117 yards and a touchdown. It’s too early in the season to dive into Redzone data, but Cook is a huge part of the Bills offense and should be given his opportunities to score in this one.
Thursday Night Football Parlay: Leg 3
When your whole offense is built around the passing game, it’s incredible how quickly the passing yards rack up. But on a short week and with injuries to the Dolphins’ running game, the Bills defensive scheme may stay heavily in nickel and dime formations. Tua has a passer rating of 77.4 with 1,454 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions in 7 games versus the Bills in his career. He has only gone over 272 passing yards twice vs. the Bills.
In two seasons as the Dolphins’ head coach, Mike McDaniel is just 7-6 SU in divisional games but a profitable 10-3 ATS.
Thursday Night Football Parlay Quick Pick
With injuries to the Dolphins’ running game, I think the Bills’ defense keeps everything in front of them. Two high safeties to avoid the deep pass. This will keep Tua’s passing yards down and give Hill more targets than usual.
Hill Over 7.5 Rec + Cook ATD + Tua Under passing yards
Parlay Odds: +800
