Sports Betting

Thursday Night Football: Lions at Packers Prop Bets


Thursday Night Football Preview

Prime-time NFL games have been all or nothing so far in 2023. We have seen some blowout victories and some entertaining back-and-forth battles, but I think we’re in for a great divisional battle this Thursday Night game to kick off week four.

The Jordan Love era in Green Bay hasn’t exactly been a walk in the park so far, but the Packers quarterback enters Thursday Night Football with a record of 2-1 and fresh off a victory over the New Orleans Saints thanks to a furious comeback.

Given the circumstances, Love has been very good even though he has been dealing with injuries to his offensive line, young pass catchers, and the absence of both his best wide receiver and Pro Bowl running back. Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are expected to return to the lineup on Thursday, which could help relieve some of the strain as the team prepares for an NFC North showdown with the Detroit Lions.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur could lean on his young franchise quarterback to pull off the win at Lambeau Field in Week 4, where the Lions are listed as 1.5-point road favorites according to the NFL odds. Given how the Lions run defense has looked to start the season, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur could rely on his young franchise quarterback to pull off the win. Let’s take a closer look at the current TNF odds and how they pertain to Love & Co in particular.

NFL Odds

Packers -1.5 | Over/Under 46

Currently, the Packers are one half-point favorites heading into tomorrow’s game. This line shouldn’t move that much between now and kickoff.  Week 4 in the NFL is a perfect time to check out sports betting odds, as we’ve seen enough games to have a good feel for who is who in 2023. But before you sign up, research the best sportsbooks or online casinos available. Some don’t offer much, whereas others have big signup bonuses like 100 free spins no deposit Canada. Before signing up, take your time to see what sports betting sites or casinos are available in your state or country.

My Picks

Sam LaPorta Over 4 Receptions

LaPorta broke the record for rookie tight ends last week when he became the first player in history to do so when he saw at least five receptions in each of his first three games. The next game he has coming up is against Green Bay, and I think he will extend his record to four games. With 22 targets in those three games, LaPorta is currently in second place in terms of target share, trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown in the standings.

The Packers defense has previously allowed Jonnu Smith (4) and Cole Kmet (5) to have this many receptions, and LaPorta looks levels above these players now. The Lions will face a Packers defense that has already allowed Jonnu Smith (4) and Cole Kmet (5) to have this many receptions. As a result of David Montgomery not being available this past weekend, he faced a total of 11 targets, up from 5 and 6 in the two previous weekends. Because of Monty’s absence, Jahmyr Gibbs saw an increase in carries but a decrease in targets. As a result, Goff relied more heavily on both LaPorta and St. Browne than he had through the first two games of the season. Expect Goff to continue looking for his two main men even though Montgomery appears to have a chance of playing, but after such a quick turnaround I can’t envision him getting a full workload right away. In a game that is expected to be very tight and in which the Lions are only a -1.5 point favorite, I anticipate that LaPorta will finish the night with many targets.

Jordan Love Over 230 Passing Yards

Love has been producing numbers despite having difficulty with his accuracy through the first three games of the season (his 31.5% uncatchable pass percentage is the highest in the NFL), as the offense he is a part of is one that maximizes the contributions of its most talented playmakers.

He has easily surpassed the 231.5 passing yards line that he was placed at for Thursday Night Football in two of his three starts, and Matt LaFleur hasn’t been afraid to throw the ball around with the former first-round choice.

It’s not that Love has been a terrible companion in any way. He has only started four games in his NFL career, and his teammates are mostly young players who are prone to injury. At this point in the season, he ranks third among quarterbacks in terms of EPA per play, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Yards

St. Brown has had back-to-back 100+ yard games and is trusted as a reliable pass catcher for his QB Jared Goff. These odds seem too good to be true, as the Packers don’t have a shutdown corner. The Packers gave up 104 yards to Chris Olave in week 3 and 237 passing yards to Atlanta the previous week. I’m confident Amon-Ra St. Brown can hit over 73 yards this week.

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