DraftKings

Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Week 5

Justin Fields

DFS Showdown

Week 5 is here. Week 4 showdown was less of a showdown and more of a beatdown. The Detroit Lions beat the Green Packers 34 to 20. And once again, there was a tie for first place. Instead of a three-way tie, this was a nine-way tie. The lesson learned is that it is hard to differentiate yourself from the pack, but winning is winning. This week the winners went 3:3. The winning lineup consisted of:

  • Captain: David Montgomery, 55.65
  • Flex: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 16.60
  • Flex: Jordan Love, 64
  • Flex: Romeo Doubs, 18.50
  • Flex: Jayden Reed, 10.50
  • Flex: Lions Defense, 10.00

Montgomery, Reed, and Doubs are the only three that outperformed their salary.

Now for the Week 5 Showdown.

Chicago Bears, 0-4 @ Washington Commanders, 2-2

Lines

  • 5 o/u (-110)
  • Commanders -6 (-110)
  • Bears +225 Moneyline
  • Commanders -270 Moneyline

Injury Report

Prop Bets

Always shop around for the best odds on your bets. Here are three interesting prop bets.

Justin Fields, 46.5 rushing yards (-110)/ under

Sooner or later, the Bears will realize Fields’ strengths and play to them. This is a short week, and the Commanders’ front seven will require Fields to access his scrambling abilities. Hopefully, that will be added to scripted quarterback runs.

Fields has only gone over 46.5 rushing yards twice. In Week 1 against Green Bay, he rushed for 59 yards; in Week 3 against Kansas City, he rushed for 47 yards.

Last week, in his best performance for the season, he only rushed for 25 yards against the Denver Broncos’ poor defense. The Commanders’ defense is better than the Broncos, and containing Fields should be Jack Del Rio’s main focus.

Sam Howell, 12.5 rushing yards (-140)/ over

Howell has eclipsed that mark in three out of four games. Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, he ran for 40 yards on six carries. Three quarterbacks have rushed for double digits against the Bears: Love rushed for 12 yards, Baker Mayfield rushed for 17, and Russell Wilson ran for 13 last week.

Total 44.5 (-110)/ under

The Bears are averaging 18.8 points per game. The Commanders are averaging 22.3.

The Game

The Bears might be the most dysfunctional team in the NFL right now. Their quarterback and WR1 are unhappy. Another wide receiver is a healthy scratch, and the head coach is on the proverbial hot seat.

Conversely, the Commanders played the Philadelphia Eagles to overtime before losing 31-34. Both teams average approximately 60 plays a game. The Bears are 27th in passing attempts per game (30.8), while the Commanders are 12th, averaging 35 passing attempts per game.

The Commanders average 23 rushing attempts per game, and the Bears average 25.5. Brian Robinson is the RB1 for the Commanders. Last week, he was on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps. Antonio Gibson logged in 38% of the offensive snaps. Terry McLaurin leads the Commanders wide receivers with 28 targets.

Khalil Herbert has taken the RB1 in the Bears backfield. He was on the field for 78% of the offensive snaps last week. Rookie Roschon Johnson saw 22% of the offensive snaps. D.J. Moore has been grossly underused. In Week 3, Moore was on the field for 100% of the offensive snaps. That resulted in six targets and three receptions for 41 yards. He salvaged the day with one touchdown. Last week, Moore logged in 93% of the offensive snaps. In a game where Fields attempted 35 passes, Moore was targeted nine times. He finished the game with eight receptions, 131 yards, and one touchdown.

Showdown Player Pool

The basics:

  • The Captain position scores 1.5 times more and costs 1.5 times more than the stated salary.
  • At least one player from each team must be rostered.
  • Statistically, a quarterback, running back, and wide receiver are best to put in the Captain spot.
  • The Captain should come from the favored team 90% of the time.
  • Vegas totals matter.

Captain Considerations

Chicago is allowing the third most passing yards per game (267.8) and giving up 18.2 fantasy points on average to the quarterback position.

Fields is a slate breaker if allowed to utilize his dual-threat ability fully.

  • Fields is the most expensive player on the slate at $16,500. Putting him in the Captain position will limit who you can play in other positions.
  • McLaurin is the second most expensive player at $15,300. Last week, McLaurin managed 86 yards on 10 targets and eight receptions against the Philadelphia Eagles porous secondary.

Last week, the Bears held Jerry Jeudy to three receptions on five targets for 52 receiving yards.

  • J. Moore, $15,000
  • Howell, $14,100
  • Robinson, $13,800
  • Herbert, $12,900

My lineup for the Showdown Slate

  • Captain: Howell
  • Flex: Fields
  • Flex: Moore
  • Flex: Robinson
  • Flex: Equanimeous St. Brown
  • Flex: Gibson

Summary

The top players on this slate are overpriced. You will need to get inventive. St. Brown could see more playing time with Chase Claypool out.

Fields can easily be the slate breaker, but putting him in the Captain position will call for all your little grey cells to make magic.

If you are on the Washington side, Jahan Dotson ($7,000) has been on the field for 87%, 85%, 94%, and 72% of the offensive snaps. Last week, Dotson did score a touchdown. Dotson has been limited in practice. A pivot to Dyami Brown ($2,800) is a play. Brown had two on three targets for 51 yards last week.

On the Chicago side, tight end Cole Kmet ($6,400) is a good play. Kmet was on the field for 74% of the offensive snaps last week and finished with seven receptions on nine targets. He had 85 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Good Luck!

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