Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
It is Week 10, and the seemingly underachieving first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, will play against either undrafted Tyson Bagent or returning anti-hero Justin Fields. Either way, the lines have moved. The Bears gained a point, going from a three-point favorite to a four-point favorite with the possibility of Fields playing. The point total has lost half a point.
The Panthers are coming off a 13-27 defeat at the hands of Gardner Minshew-led Indianapolis Colts. Young threw three interceptions and had 173 passing yards on 39 attempts and 24 receptions. Fantasy darling Adam Thielen was a disappointment with 29 receiving yards on five receptions. Thielen was targeted a team-leading six times. Running back Chuba Hubbard once again led the backfield with 16 rushing attempts. Hubbard only averaged 3.8 yards per carry and finished with 58 yards.
The Bears are also coming in after a loss. The Bears lost 17-24 to the New Orleans Saints. Bagent also threw for three interceptions. But Bagent threw in two touchdowns and 220 passing yards. D’Onta Foreman led the running backs with 20 rushing attempts for 83 yards. Roschon Johnson was the next-highest running back with two rushing attempts for six yards. Tight end Cole Kmet led all receivers with eight targets, six receptions, and two touchdowns. He was second on the team with 55 receiving yards.
These lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook Wednesday.
- Point spread: +4.0 (-115); -4.0 (-105)
- Moneyline: Panthers +154; Bears -185
- Total: o 39 (-112); u 39 (-108)
You can either play FanDuel or DraftKings. This article is specific to the DraftKings scoring system, specifically the single-entry Showdown Tournament. The Showdown Tournament entries require you to play six players. On the Showdown slate, you must play at least one player from an opposing team.
There is also a Captain position. The player designated as Captain will have their point total multiplied 1.5 times. The Captain’s salary will also be multiplied by 1.5 times. After choosing your Captain, you will pick your five flex players.
The DraftKings PPR scoring system is in effect. The bonus points are also awarded. The quarterback receives three bonus points for passing yardage over 300. The running backs and receivers get the three bonus points for over 100 rushing or receiving yards.
Both teams have released an extensive injury report. Here is a list of the players who either were limited in practice or did not practice.
- Justin Fields, Quarterback, Thumb, Limited in Practice: 1201 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, 47 rushing attempts, 237 rushing yards, and one touchdown.
- Cole Kmet, Tight End, Knee, Did Not Practice: 50 targets, 41 receptions, 374 yards, five touchdowns.
- Tremaine Edmunds, Linebacker, Knee, Did Not Practice 63 tackles, three tackles for loss, three passes defended, one interception.
- Terell Smith, Defensive Back, Illness, Did Not Practice 21 tackles, two tackles for loss, two passes defended.
- Xavier Woods, Safety, Thigh, Did Not Practice 24 tackles, and two passes defended.
- C.J. Henderson, Cornerback, Concussion, Did Not Practice one sack, 35 tackles, three tackles for loss, two passes defended.
- Brian Burns, OLB, Concussion, Did Not Practice
Weather Thursday Night
The current weather forecast for Chicago’s Thursday night game is partly cloudy, with a low of 38, a west wind of 10-15 mph, and gusts as high as 20 mph.
Neither team averages more than 21 points a game. The Panthers are averaging 17.5 points a game. The Bears are averaging 20.9 points a game. The defenses of both teams are surrendering more. The Panthers defense has allowed opponents 27.3 points per game. At the same time, the Bears’ defense has allowed 22.0 points a game in their last three games.
The teams are also opposite in their game style. The Panthers are fifth in plays per game (67), while the Bears are 18th. The Bears are top-10 in rushing attempts per game (29.4), while the Panthers are 23rd (24.5). The Panthers are third in pass attempts per game (38.9), while the Bears are 28th (30.2).
But ultimately, what the game hinges on is whether Fields returns. If Fields is unable to return, Tyson Bagent will remain under center. Bagent’s first full game was a Week 7 30-12 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. In his three full games, Bagent has averaged 32 passing attempts. He has passed for over 200 yards in two of the three games, with three total touchdowns and five interceptions. Last week, Bagent rushed for 70 yards.
Young is having rookie issues. Last week, that included throwing three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns by Kenny Moore. In his last three games, Young has been sacked 14 times, and he has been sacked 26 times for the season.
Last Week Showdown Tournament
Last week’s Showdown Tournament ended in a three-way tie. The winning point total was 103.40. The winning slate had three players from each team. The Captain spot belonged to Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson. The ‘wild card’ was Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kyle Phillips. For a $800 salary, Phillips finished with 10.80 fantasy points.
These three props and odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Find the props you are most comfortable with and shop around for the best odds.
Chuba Hubbard under 43.5 rushing yards, -135: The Bears’ run defense has been efficient in their last three games. The only one to rush for over 50 yards was New Orleans Saints’ Taysom Hill. Last week, Hill rushed for 52 yards on 11 carries.
In his last three games, Hubbard has gone over in two of the last three. He has rushed for 58, 28, and 88 yards in his last three games. (The over is +105)
Tyson Bagent under 189.5 passing yards, -115: In his last three games, Bagent has passed for 162, 232, and 220 yards. The Panthers have held opposing quarterbacks to season lows. Tua Tagovailoa has the most passing yards against them in their last three games. Tagovailoa had 262 passing yards on 31 attempts. Since then, C.J. Stroud was held to 140 on 24 attempts, and Gardner Minshew 127 passing yards on 26 attempts.
Parlay: Panthers +3.5, under 38.5, Thielen anytime touchdown +950
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears Showdown
Remember, this depends on your narrative of the game. The Bears have been competitive. They lost last week due to turnovers in the fourth quarter.
After beating the Houston Texans by two points (15-13) in Week 8, the Panthers were beaten by the Indianapolis Colts by two touchdowns.
QB, Justin Fields, $17,100: Fields is the second-highest player on the slate. His ceiling is raised because of his rushing upside. Fields passed for 282 and 335 yards in the two games before his injury, adding 57 and 25 rushing yards.
WR, D.J. Moore, $15,900: This can be considered Moore’s revenge game. Last week, Moore had one fumble. He was also the third most targeted Bears receiver with five and third in receptions (3) and receiving yards (44). For the season, Moore has 62 targets with 47 receptions and five touchdowns.
QB, Tyson Bagent, $13,800: If Fields cannot go, Bagent will be in for his fourth start. He has had 12.9, 13.2, and 19.8 fantasy points in his three starts.
RB, D’Onta Foreman, $12,900: Perhaps the better choice in Captain’s position if Fields can’t go is Foreman. In his three games with Bagent, Foreman has double-digit carries in two out of three and targets in two out of three.
WR, Darnell Mooney, $11,100: Last week, Mooney was second in targets (6), second in receptions (5), and first in receiving yards (82).
TE, Cole Kmet, $9,900: Check the injury status on Kmet. In two games with Bagent, Kmet was the leader in targets (8) and (10) and has finished 55 and 79 yards and two touchdowns.
WR, Adam Thielen, $17,700: Thielen is the highest-priced player on the slate. Although he led the team in targets last week (6), his five receptions and 29 yards finish was his worst performance since Week 1. Thielen is currently WR8 in PPR, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game.
QB, Bryce Young, $14,700: Young has thrown seven interceptions and eight touchdowns, including two pick six’s last week (to the same defender)! Young has only one game with multiple touchdowns passes and has been sacked 26 times.
RB, Chuba Hubbard, $12,000: Hubbard has had double-digit carries in the last three games. The Bears’ defense has held Alvin Kamara to 26 yards, Austin Ekeler to 29 yards, and Josh Jacobs to 35 yards in the last three weeks.
TE, Hayden Hurst, $7,200: The Bears are mid against the tight end position. They have allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in two of the last three games.
TE, Tommy Tremble, $3,600: Tremble is playing more snaps than Hurst, but Hurst is the more productive of the two.
Flex Value Plays
Depending on your version of the game script, defenses and kickers are always in play. But also consider:
RB, Roschon Johnson, $3,600: Johnson has been on the field for 29.4% of the offensive snaps in Week 9. Last week, he only had two rushing attempts.
WR, Jonathan Mingo, $2,800: Mingo is the third read on the offense. Last week, he had four targets but only managed one reception for five yards.
RB, Travis Homer, $200: Homer spends most of his time on special teams. He has 54.2% of the snaps on special teams.
WR, Tyler Scott, $200: Scott was on the field for 58.8% of the offensive snaps last week.
Wait until you have definitive news on whether Fields or Kmet are playing.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.