Thursday Night Football Texans at Jets
Last Thursday night’s NFL game between the Vikings and Rams surprised everyone, including myself. Amidst the trade rumors, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp suited up to play and played relatively well. We also saw second-year receiver Puka Nacua return from IR after suffering a PCL injury in week 1 of the season. As usual, Rams running back Kyren Williams rushed the ball 23 times for 97 yards. With the Los Angeles Rams offense at full strength, quarterback Matthew Stafford was able to throw 4 touchdowns which allowed the Rams to score 30 points.
On the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings offense looked lackluster. They couldn’t gain ground in the running game and were basically a “one trick pony” called the Justin Jefferson show. Jefferson was able to haul in 8 receptions for 115 yards but did not score a touchdown. On defense, they looked extremely soft, making it their third game in four weeks of allowing their opponent to score 30+ points. With all that being said, the Rams defeated the Vikings 30-20.
NFL Odds
This is a very interesting game, and maybe an even more interesting NFL Vegas line. The 6-2 Houston Texans are two-point underdogs on the road against the 2-6 New York Jets. The Texans offense will be without Stefon Diggs, who suffered a torn ACL in the third quarter of last week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts, and are on a short week. Still, even with injuries, the Jets don’t seem like a team that should be the favorite in this contest.
Game Preview
Let’s backtrack to a few weeks ago. The New York Jets acquired wide receiver Davante Adams in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders to reunite him with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, the wheels have not been turning in the right direction for the offense, even after the trade. When watching film, my belief is that the offensive line is their biggest weakness. If the offensive line can give a little more time to Rodgers, he will have a better chance of completing his throws to his receivers. In hindsight, this would allow the offense to perform tremendously, except the offense playmakers need to get their timing down on a few throws that I noticed including slant routes, comeback route, and running down the seam. The seam play is successful when playing against cover 3. Since a lot of teams use cover 2, they need to exploit the top middle of the field including post routes. The same post route that New England was able to complete against the Jets cover 2 defense to help them score the go-ahead touchdown to win last week’s matchup. A notable injury for the Jets includes Allen Lazard who suffered a chest injury and has been ruled as questionable for this week’s matchup. His replacement would be Mike Williams, who I believe Rodgers will not even target after Williams could not complete a game winning catch towards the end of the game a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, the running game has been non-existent due to the offensive line not being able to open any holes for their running backs. Finally, their defense could play better, especially against the run. If their interior line can lock down the running game, the Jets should be able to come away with the win on Thursday.
Now let’s talk about the Houston Texans. The Texans have suffered two major blows to their offense including star receivers Nico Collins (hamstring, returning week 10) and Stefon Diggs (torn ACL, out for season). This now leaves slot receiver Tank Dell, and the backups to make up for the missing pieces. This is what I call a recipe for disaster. I expect the Texans to heavily rely on the running game against the Jets, trusting their offensive line and Joe Mixon to get the job done. Except, if the Texans can’t get the passing game going, the Jets are going to send everyone and stuff the run. This would result in the Texans not being able to move down the field. I understand that the entire world looks at the New York Jets team as a laughingstock, but for the Texans it will be an uphill battle to climb to defeat the Jets on Thursday.
Let’s look at one significant stat, the Green Bay Packers defense held Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to only 86 passing yards two weeks ago. Like the Packers defense, the Jets are a top defense against the pass. This makes Thursday night’s matchup even more intriguing.
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DFS Sleepers
$9,000 Fanduel
Fairbairn is one of the best kickers in the game at the current moment. For the past four weeks, he has attempted 3 field goals in each game. Throughout those four games, he made 11/12. I expect him to attempt at least another 3 field goals in this game, if not more due to the decimated receiving core and Stroud’s poor performance against good defenses, keeping them out of the end zone and having to rely on field goals.
$8,000 Fanduel
As I stated, the Texans’ receiving core is decimated right now and there is no doubt in my mind that Schultz is going to be heavily involved in the offense on Thursday. Last week he recorded 4 receptions for 52 yards. Expect him to receive four or more receptions against the Jets.
$7,500 Fanduel
Allen Lazard is questionable with a chest injury. If Lazard does not play, Conklin’s stock rises exponentially. With Aaron Rodgers having no faith in Mike Williams due to the blunder that cost the Jets a win a few weeks ago, I expect Conklin to receive more targets than usual. It is already proven that Rodgers trusts Conklin as he is a regular part of the receiving game.
$8,500 Fanduel
The Jets defense is ranked number two in yards allowed to opposing offenses with 161.1 yards allowed on average. Now that the Texans are without two of their top receivers, it almost looks impossible to be able to move the ball down the field. There is only so much they will be able to run the ball before the Jets start sending everyone to stop the run. I expect the Jets to allow minimal yardage and will probably keep the Texans out of the end zone for most of the game.
Prediction
Depite the odds, I think the New York Jets will defeat the Houston Texans 23-15. The most important statistic to watch in this game is that the Houston Texans allow 21.4 fantasy points to wide receivers on average. That one stat alone implies that the Jets wide receivers are in for a big game.
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