Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Week 8

Justin Jefferson

Vikings at Chargers

Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL season. This Thursday, it’s social media’s Spider-Man Meme as the Minnesota Vikings travel to LA to meet the Chargers. This is also the “will he or won’t he play” game. On the Vikings side, will running back Aaron Jones play? On the Chargers’ side, it is the Alt watch. Will Joe Alt play? Both matter for their teams and for the fantasy football implications. 

But before we get to this week’s fun and games, let’s look at the winning lineup for last week’s NFL Showdown $10K Huddle (Single Entry):

  • Captain: TE, P. Freiermuth, 46.65, 0.13% drafted
  • Flex: WR, J. Chase, 41.10, 74.56% drafted
  • Flex: QB, J. Flacco, 28.98, 44.58% drafted
  • Flex: QB, A, Rodgers, 24.56, 59.51% drafted
  • Flex: RB, J. Warren, 22.80, 57.15 % drafted
  • Flex: K, C. Boswell, 8.00, 26.41%

Awesome stack here with 4-2 Steelers and with the concentration of the Bengals offense, well, when you don’t double their number one wide receiver…Let’s move on. 

Thursday Night Stats

Both teams are coming off a home loss. The Vikings lost to the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles 22-28. And the Chargers lost to the hot Indianapolis Colts 24-38. 

  • Last week, Justin Herbert threw 55 times with 37 completions, 420 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and three sacks. He also led his team with 31 rushing yards.
  • Last week, Carson Wentz threw 42 times with 26 completions, 313 passing yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, and two sacks. He was second on his team with 28 rushing yards. 
  • The Chargers’ defense is eighth in passing yards allowed and 20th in rushing yards allowed.
  • The Vikings’ defense is seventh in passing yards allowed and 19th in rushing yards allowed.
  • The Vikings allow the fourth-highest target rate to in-line tight ends. Herbert has thrown to the tight end position more than 10% more than other teams when going against a defense playing Cover-2 or Cover-4.
  • Herbert throws to the slot position at the second-highest rate:

*Ladd McConkey runs out of the slot at a 62.8% rate

*Keenan Allen runs out of the slot at a 36.4% rate

*Oronde Gadsden has a 42.1% slot rate (which is slightly more than half his routes (132) and averages close to two YPRR when in the slot. 

  • The Chargers run zone defense at the seventh-highest rate. Wentz versus zone doubles his targets to tight end T.J. Hockenson. 

Thursday Night Prop Bets

From bet365

  • Wentz over 222.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Wentz has racked up 268.0 passing yards per game this season, 41.5 yards more than Thursday’s over/under.
  • Wentz has hit the over on his passing yard totals in each of his two games this season with a prop.
  • Justin Jefferson over 75.5 receiving yards (-118)

For the season, Jefferson has 52 targets, 34 receptions, and zero drops. He is averaging 88.0 receiving yards per game. In his last three games, he has 79, 123, and 126 receiving yards.

From SportsWire

Justin Herbert player props

Passing yard prop: Over/under 257.5 yards

Compared to his 257.5-yard over/under for this matchup, Herbert is recording more yards per game (273.3) so far this season.

  • Herbert has exceeded his passing yards total in 71.4% of his opportunities this season (five of seven games).
  • Herbert has a passing touchdown in all seven games this season, with multiple passing TDs in four of them.

Quentin Johnston player props

  • Receiving yard prop: Over/under 46.5 yards
  • Johnston is averaging 67.8 receiving yards per game, 21.3 more than the over/under of 46.5 set for Thursday’s matchup.
  • In four of his six games this season (66.7%), Johnston has exceeded his receiving yards prop bets.
  • Johnston has had a touchdown catch in four games this season, out of six games played, but has had multiple TD receptions only once.

NFL Showdown $10K (Single Entry) (Minnesota @ Los Angeles Chargers)

Chargers -2.5, Total 43.5

Captain Choices

  • WR J. Jefferson $17,700
  • QB J. Herbert    $15,600
  • QB C. Wentz     $13,500
  • RB J. Mason      $12,900
  • WR Q. Johnston $12,000
  • WR K. Allen       $11,700
  • WR L. McConkey $11,400
  • WR, J. Addison   $11,100
  • RB K. Vidal $10,500
  • TE O. Gadsden II  $8,700
  • K C. Dicker   $8,100
  • K W. Reichard $7,500
  • TE T. Hockenson $7,200
  • Chargers Defense $6,600
  • Vikings Defense $6,000

Those are your major players. 

The Captain’s choice will depend on how you think the game script will go and who is playing. Herbert’s value as captain increases exponentially if Alt plays. 

Tweet

In six games this season, Herbert has been sacked 16 times with 21 quarterback knockdowns (both tied for seventh most), has 57 pressures (fifth most), and 20 hurries (seventh most). 

Alt’s return will slow the floodgate to Herbert. 

The Play

Should we be concerned with fatigue in Herbert’s arm? Short week after attempting 55 passes? Just a thought, one that I have obviously dismissed.

  • CAPTAIN: QB, Justin Herbert, $15,600
  • FLEX: WR, Keenan Allen, $7,800
  • FLEX: TE, O. Gadsden II, $5,800
  • FLEX: RB, Jordan Mason, $8,600
  • FLEX: WR, Jordan Addison, $7,400
  • FLEX: TE, T. Hockenson, $4,800
  • Remember, this is a single-entry lineup.

Good Luck, and play nice.

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This Article Written By

Gladys Louise Tyler

Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.