Thursday Night DFS Showdown Vikings @ Eagles
Hey, welcome to Week 2 of the NFL 2023 season. The week starts with a rematch of last season’s Week 2, Monday night game. In that matchup, the Eagles won 24-7. The Vikings’ leading receiver in that matchup was Adam Thielen, with four receptions for 52 yards. Justin Jefferson was held to 48 yards on six receptions, and quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for 221 yards with three interceptions and one touchdown.
The Eagles’ leading receiver was tight end Dallas Goedert, with 82 yards on five receptions. Quarterback Jalen Hurts ran for 57 yards and two touchdowns while passing for 333 yards, one passing touchdown, and one interception.
That was then welcome to the new year. The Vikings have a new defensive coordinator a new secondary, and Thielen is gone. The Eagles have a new offensive coordinator and new defensive coordinator, and last year’s leading rusher, Miles Sanders, is gone.
Week 1 Preview
So, what do we expect? Last week, the Vikings lost to the Baker Mayfield-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17. Cousins had 44 passing attempts and 344 yards with two touchdowns, one interception, and two fumbles. Jefferson led the team with 12 targets and nine receptions for 150 yards, while Alexander Mattison led the running backs with 11 rushing attempts, averaging 3.1 yards per carry.
The Eagles beat the New England Patriots 25-20. Quarterback Hurts attempted 33 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown. He had nine rushing attempts for 37 yards. Kenneth Gainwell led the crowded running back room with 14 carries for 54 yards. Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. And the dynamic duo A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had 10 targets and seven receptions. Smith finished with 47 yards and a touchdown. Brown finished with 79 yards.
Thursday Night Football Preview
Lines
Minnesota Vikings 0-1 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-0
Spread opened at Eagles -7.5; currently Eagles -6.5
Moneyline opened at Vikings +266, currently +216; Eagles -338, currently -265; Over/Under opened at 48.5, currently 49.
Injury Status
Vikings Out: Center Garrett Bradbury; Questionable: Offensive Tackle, Christian Darrisaw; Outside Linebacker, Marcus Davenport
Eagles Out: Cornerback, James Bradberry, Safety, Reed Blankenship; and Running Back, Kenneth Gainwell; Questionable: Defensive Tackle, Fletcher Cox
Game Overview
Here we are, the first game of Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season. We are playing the DraftKings Showdown Contest (Single Entry). As fantasy football players, we know how much of a variance we have playing DraftKings Classic, where multiple teams are involved. Now we have two teams in one game.
This is a showdown; we first must embrace the chaos and the high variance one game will bring. The second is to strategize the best we can.
In the showdown, you have six positions. One position is the captain, and the rest are flex. The most important thing to remember is that not only is the captain position worth 1.5 times scoring bonus but that their salary is also increased by 1.5 times.
Positional Overview
Roster construction for the showdown mood necessitates both teams be represented. You can play 5:1, 4:2, or 3:3 as long as both teams are represented.
Captain
The over/under is 49. An over/under that high smells like a shootout. Ordinarily, we would eliminate both the defenses and the kicker.
However, this is Cousins in prime time, and his history is not great.
Potential captains from the Eagles side are Dallas Goedert, $8700; Hurts, $17,100; Brown, $15,900; Smith, $13,500; Eagles’ defense, $6,600.
Potential captains from the Vikings are T.J. Hockenson, $10,200; Jefferson, $18,600; Mattison, $11,400; Jordan Addison, $9,600; K.J. Osborn, $7,500; or Cousins, $13,800.
When the over/under is 49 or higher, the captain position goes to QB1, WR1, or RB1 on the winning team because (duh) they will score the most points. On rare occasions (Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews) when the TE1 has a higher ceiling than the WR1, you would play them.
In this particular matchup, in the past, Darius Slay Jr. has contained Jefferson. Hockenson slides into the role of the tight end with a high ceiling. Hockenson played on 75% of the offensive snaps in Week 1. Jefferson was on the field for 98%, Osborn 90.6%, and Addison 56.3%. Mattison, the clear RB1 in Minnesota, was on the field for 73.4% of the offensive snaps.
On the Eagles side, Goedert played on 92% of the offensive snaps last week but was only targeted once. Smith played on 98%, Brown 91%, and wide receiver Quez Watkins 79%.
With Gainwell out for this game, D’Andre Swift’s 29% offensive snaps were behind Gainwell’s lead last week.
Name Projections Captain%
Hurts 70.7 14.6%
Jefferson 55.1 12.4%
Brown 46 9.0%
Cousins 49 8.1%
Smith 39.6 8.3%
Mattison 29.6 4.8%
Hockenson 35.9 6.4%
Addison 24.6 4.2%
Goedert 35.4 6.6%
My Lineup Construction
By all means, I insist you make your kind of chaos. Remember that the Patriots did well against the Eagles in the middle. That would be Hockenson.
Also, the Vikings are missing their center and have an offensive tackle that is banged up.
- Captain: D. Goedert, $8,700
- Flex: J. Hurts, $11,400
- Flex: D. Smith, $9,000
- Flex: A. Brown, $10,600
- Flex: T. Hockenson $6,800.
- Flex: T. Chandler, $1,200
As you can see, this construction is 4:2. It would be negligent not to mention how viable the Eagles’ defense will be with Minnesota’s center out and their tackle injured. And there are Cousins’ dismal prime-time stats.
You got this. Play nice. Choose chaos and good luck.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.
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