Sports Betting

Thursday Night DFS Showdown Chargers v Raiders

Austin Ekeler

Well, the game script from last week went nothing like I predicted, which sucks if you are playing a single entry. Hopefully, those of you who play multi-entry GPP took advantage. And we move on to this week.

This Thursday night game will feature an Aidan O’Connell Las Vegas Raiders team hosting an Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers team. There have been some whispers that the Raiders may play either Jimmy Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer this week, which would alter your game script. As of Wednesday, there was no confirmation either way.

Here is the situation: Both teams are 5-8 in the AFC West and are statistically alive for a post-season game. This game is a rematch of Week 4, where the Chargers won 24-17. In that game, O’Connell was 24-of-39 for 238 yards and an interception. Davante Adams led in targets (13), and Josh Jacobs was second (11). Jacobs led in receptions, hauling in eight for 81 yards, and led in rushing with 17 carries for 58 yards.

Most statistics are irrelevant since Justin Herbert was the quarterback for that game. Week 4 was a game the Chargers played without Austin Ekeler. Joshua Kelley led the team in rushing yards with 65 on 17 carries.

Stick entered last week’s game in the second half. It is safe to believe that the play-calling for this week will be different than what Stick dealt with last week. Stick’s strength, in addition to his ability to get the ball downfield, is his upside rushing ability. Expect more RPOs in this game. The Chargers must find a way to score points after not scoring more than 10 points in their last three games.

The Raiders offensive ineptness is also front and center. Last week, they did not score a point, losing 0-3 to the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders had 202 total yards, three turnovers, and were 3-14 on third downs. And that performance was coming off a bye week.

LINES

Once again, we are given a Thursday night game whose lines will make a football purist blush. These particular lines are from ESPN Bet, Wednesday afternoon.

  • Spread: Raiders -2.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Chargers +120
  • Total: Over 34.5 (-112)

The line for the total has moved up .05 since this morning. Always check your multiple sportsbooks to get the best lines available.

DFS: PLAYING THE GAME

Both FanDuel and DraftKings have Showdown Tournaments for you to play. This specific article is specific to DraftKings. The difference is in the scoring system. DraftKings employs a PPR scoring system with bonus points allotted to the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions. Each position gets three bonus points when the quarterback passes for 300+ yards. The running backs and receivers also get three bonus points when rushing for 100+ yards or receiving for 100+ yards.

The Showdown Tournament requires that you roster six players. One of the six players is dedicated to a captain’s spot. The Captain will receive 1.5 more fantasy points. His salary is also multiplied by 1.5 times more.

The main thing to remember about Showdown slates is that they are game script-dependent. How you think the game will play out is how you will construct your roster. What players will impact this game, whether you are playing single-entry or multi-entry? In a single-entry roster, construction will be tighter with less regard to player ownership. In multi-entry, you want to get slightly weirder and pay more attention to ownership, shying away from the more highly rostered players.

INJURIES

Both teams have multiple players who had limited practice. This list is just a list of the players who did not practice.

Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen, WR, heel, OUT

Deane Leonard, DB, ankle/heel

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Maxx Crosby, DE, knee

Josh Jacobs, RB, quad

Andrew James, C, ankle

Kolton Miller, T, shoulder

 

PROP BETS

These props and odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Davante Adams, over 67.5 receiving yards, -115

This line seems almost disrespectful. And if there is a quarterback change, the line may also change. However, right now, 67.5 over or under sits at -115.

Adams has had 53, 73, and 82 receiving yards in his last three games. Since Week 9, Adams has had a 36.2% first read share, a 29.6% target share, and 2.10 yards per routes run. Sixty-nine percent of the fantasy points the Chargers give up to the receiving position go to the out wide receiver. Eighty-nine percent of Adams’ fantasy points have come when he is targeted out wide.

Austin Ekeler, under 12.5 rushing attempts, +105

Last week, head coach Brandon Staley suggested that Ekeler would lose rushing touches. Ekeler was on the field for 72% of the offensive snaps and finished with 10 touches for 51 yards. The next most touches were Isaiah Spiller’s, with six touches. I believe Spiller’s touches will increase, and Stick will have some designed run plays, making Ekeler’s 10 touches from last week his ceiling for this game. It’s a gamble, but I like it.

I only have a two-leg parlay. Over 34.5 with Raiders’ Moneyline (+220)

Perhaps it is the scorch from last week’s undergoing over in the first half. Perhaps it is that both teams are in store for a positive regression on points scored. Either way, the Chargers have found ways not to win, and the Raiders appear to be playing for interim head coach Antonio Pierce.

Let’s play.

CAPTAIN SPOT

WR, Davante Adams, $16,800: Besides the above stats, Adam ranks eighth among all wide receivers in deep targets and second in red zone targets.

RB, Josh Jacobs, $15,300: Spoiler alert: if healthy and looks good during pre-game warm-ups, Jacobs is my Captain. Head coach Pierce has already stated that it will be the Jacobs show if he is healthy. Additionally, since Week 9, the Chargers have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.

RB, Zamir White, $4,500: If Jacobs cannot go, for the above reasons and the salary discount coming my way.

QB, Easton Stick, $14,100: Listening to Matt “Money” Smith talk about Stick, I am all in. His deep pass and connection with Quentin Johnston last week also looked great.

TE, Gerald Everett, $7,800: Since Week 12, Everett has had a 59% route run rate and an 11.5% first read share. In his last three games, he has seen four red zone targets. The Raiders allow the 12th most receiving yards per game and the second-highest catch rate to the tight end position. The caveat is Everett is working through a hip problem check health status.

 

This is a game where you may not put your lineup in until 15 minutes before game time after pre-game warm-ups. So many pivotal players are nursing what could be substantial injuries.

Also, monitor the status of who will be playing under center for the Raiders.

FLEX OPTIONS

WR, Jakobi Meyers, $8,600: Meyers does have a 19.8% first read share with O’Connell.  But he also only has one red zone target since Week 7.

WR, Quentin Johnston, $5,400: Besides his break-out week with Stick last week, four targets, three receptions, and 91 yards, the news of Keenan Allen not playing raises Johnston’s value exponentially.

RB, Joshua Kelley, $6,800: Kelley was supposed to be next in line for Ekeler’s touches. Last week, he had three touches for six yards.

WR, Joshua Palmer, $6,200: Without Allen in the lineup, Palmer and Johnston should see more targets. The question mark is quarterback Stick.

WR, Hunter Renfrow, $4,000: Renfrow is seeing an uptake in his route participation. Last week, it was 59% but only resulted in five targets, third on the team.

RB, Isaiah Spiller, $3,800: Spiller should be in your flex. He is the heir apparent to Ekeler. Last week, he had six carries for 19 yards.

IN LOW PREDICTIVE GAMES

In games where the predictive total is under 40.0, kickers and defense are in play if you feel the game script follows.

K, Cameron Dicker, $5,000

K, Daniel Carlson, $4,600

DST, Chargers, $4,400

DST, Raiders, $4,200

 

The loss of Allen is monumental to the Chargers offense, your fantasy player pool, and the game script. Will it now be a run-first, RPO extravaganza?

I won’t put a lineup in until 30 minutes before game time. Good luck, and if you have any questions, just slide into the DMs.

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