Gridiron Experts

ThriveFantasy Player Prop Advice: Week 3

ThriveFantasy Advice: Week 3

Have you ever heard of ThriveFantasy? It is a new Daily Fantasy Sports app that is unlike your usual competitive fantasy choices and meant for the everyday fan. ThriveFantasy focuses on top-tier athletes from every sport while streamlining the drafting process. The result is a captivating DFS game that even the casual and hardcore sports fan can enjoy. You build a lineup around a list of simple binary player propositions.

The less likely the player prop is to take place the more points the choice will be worth. You score points based on the number of props you select correctly. As an example, your team could be made up of 15 picks that you select out of an available list of 20. You will also select two in case of emergency or ICE picks. These ICE picks will automatically be added to your team only if an athlete is ruled out of a game prior to their start time. You will be alerted if an ICE is being used. ThriveFantasy has an app that features live updates to let you know in real time how close your picks are to hitting and to provide you a line of sight of how you stack to the competition.

This season-long weekly series at Gridiron Experts will focus on providing you strategies on how to dominate ThriveFantasy’s Traditional NFL Featured Contests. The traditional contests allow you to select a player’s individual stat line or a combination of stat lines to win a predetermined amount of fantasy points. While the ones that are featured have the “star” logo, the biggest prize pools, and the largest payouts.

This week’s article will focus on the $20 NFL Week 3 $2K Guaranteed Contest highlighting 10 props to target.

 

MAKING PICKS

This a contest that allows you to pick 10 out of 20 options. The less probable the prop is to occur, the more points you receive if you choose correctly. Players must be on the field for at least one snap to qualify. Let’s dive into all of the player props.

Drew Brees

285.5 Passing Yards

  • Over =95 points
  • Under = 105 points

The matchup between the Saints and the Falcons have one of the highest projected point totals (53) of Week 3. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is averaging 40 attempts and 341 passing yards per game through two games with positive passing fantasy points over expectation per attempt of 0.15. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

Julio Jones

103.5 Receiving Yards

  • Over = 110 points
  • Under = 90 points

Falcons Julio Jones has averaged 116.5 receiving yards per game this season and leads his position in air yards (477) entering Week 3. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

Saquon Barkley

68.5 Rushing Yards

  • Over = 85 points
  • Under = 115 points

Giants running back Saquon Barkley has averaged 67 rushing yards per game. He rushed for 108 yards in Week 1, but 63 percent of that came from one run. Barkley followed that performance up with 28 rushing yards last week against the Cowboys. He faces a solid Texans run defense in Week 3. My recommendation is to take the under on this player prop.

Stefon Diggs

6.5 Receptions

  • Over = 125 points
  • Under = 75 points

The Vikings against the Bills has one of the lowest projected point totals (41) of Week 3. Given the state of the Bills defense, this is a game where the Vikings could see positive game flow and play with a significant lead. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs only averaged 4.6 receptions per game last season, but is currently averaging six per game this season. My recommendation is to take the under on this player prop.

Patrick Mahomes

1.5 Passing Touchdowns

  • Over = 75
  • Under = 125

The Chiefs and 49ers are projected to score the highest number of points (56.5) in Week 3 according to Vegas. Did you know that Chiefs quarterback Mahomes now owns the record for the most scores (10) through the first two weeks of the season? He looks to continue the momentum against a 49ers defense allowing 2.5 passing touchdowns in the Chiefs home opener. I like Mahomes’ chances and recommend to take the over on this player prop.

Amari Cooper

59.5 Receiving Yards

  • Over = 100 points
  • Under = 100 points

Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper is averaging 6.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 62.5 receiving yards per game this season. He has averaged 63.3 receiving yards per game over his last 48 games. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

Kenyan Drake

58.5 Rushing Yards

  • Over = 110 points
  • Under = 90

Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake is currently averaging only 50.5 rushing yards per game. He has played 67.2 percent of the Dolphins offensive snaps and has had a rushing attempt on 30.2 percent of them. Drake could have positive game flow on his side in Week 3 against a Raiders defense that has allowed 154 rushing yards per game in 2018. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

 

 

Christian McCaffrey

97.5 Total Yards

  • Over = 110 points
  • Under = 90 points

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey has averaged 117 total yards per game in 2018. He has averaged 21 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

Ezekiel Elliot

91.5 Rushing Yards

  • Over = 90 points
  • Under = 110 points

Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is currently averaging 73 rushing yards per game in 2018. The offense is currently ranked 30th in total yards per game entering Week 3. The Cowboys offense lacks a receiving playmaker and gets to face a Seahawks defense on the road allowing 116 rushing yards per game. I believe Elliott will get all the touches he can physically handle and as a result, could over 91.5 rushing yards due to volume alone.

Rob Gronkowski 

5.5 Receptions

  • Over = 110 points
  • Under = 90 points

The matchup between the Patriots and Lions has a projected point total of 52. The Patriots are 6.5 points favorites and since 2000 they are 21-6 against the spread following a double-digit loss. The Lions have had an average combined score of 61 points this season. This will be a high scoring game considering the total yards per game the Patriots and Lions defenses are allowing. Tight end Rob Gronkowski will be a focal point of the Patriots passing offense. There is a high probability he could exceed the 4.8 receptions per game Gronkowski has averaged over the last 53 games. My recommendation is to take the over on this player prop.

CONCLUSION

You have a compelling case for each of the player props in ThriveFantasy’s Week 3 Featured Traditional Contest. Which ones will you choose? Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

Eric Moody

Eric Moody

Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association) and writes exclusively about fantasy football. He has a lifelong passion for the game and played on the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level by using game film. When he provides fantasy football advice he prefers to "play the piano with both hands" using game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. Eric enjoys Netflix, listening to music, playing bass guitar, drinking coffee, and spending time with his family. He lives in Dallas, Texas

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