Hey all and welcome to the Thanksgiving GPP Breakdown!
I love the yearly three-game slate we get here toward the end of November. What’s better this year is that the teams are actually good. It felt like a decade of crappy Lions teams that we were being subjected to. I’m looking forward to watching these 3 games, and of course, playing some DFS. DraftKings, in an effort to create diversity amongst lineups, has dropped the pricing of many players well below what they would otherwise be if this was a Sunday slate of 10 to 12 games. Ownership should still fluctuate to certain areas, so…
Let’s get into it!
Ownership continues to matter on a 3 game slate, but gone is the rule about fading highly owned players, and hello to the rule about deciding which highly owned players (chalk) we will have to eat. The ownership on a three-game slate is going to fluctuate a bit from what their actual numbers are. More than any other slate, they are but a guide and not an exact science. For example, while Dak Prescott may or may not end up being over 40% owned, based on these numbers, he should be the highest-owned QB. Knowing these things can help fuel our decision-making. I’ll be updating them on Discord on Thursday morning.
- Christian McCaffrey – 50.9%
- CeeDee Lamb – 45.9%
- Cowboys – 43%
- Jake Ferguson – 41.8%
- Tony Pollard – 40.5%
- Zach Charbonnet – 36.8%
- Dak Prescott – 36.2%
- Jahmyr Gibbs – 35.8%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – 33%
- Terry McLaurin – 31.9%
- Brandin Cooks – 29%
- AJ Dillon – 26.9%
- Deebo Samuel – 25.4%
- Brian Robinson – 25.2%
- Logan Thomas – 23.6%
- Brock Purdy – 21.5%
- David Montgomery – 20.7%
- Brandon Aiyuk – 20.4%
- Sam LaPorta – 20.3%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 19.6%
- I think it will be CeeDee Lamb who becomes this highest owned on Thanksgiving. 60% or higher is a possibility. For those like me who are building many lineups, I think there’s 2 choices: have him in every lineup or fade him entirely and hope for an off day.
- Zach Charbonnet might come in higher because, as of this writing, Kenneth Walker has yet to be “officially” ruled out, so his ownership likely sees an uptick once that news it out.
- Jared Goff is the 3rd highest projected owned QB as an FYI.
- The Lions look to be the 2nd most owned DST.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
The 47.5 total and -7.5 in favor of the Lions suggests that Vegas thinks this game will end something like 27 or 28 to 20. While I agree that’s probably a likely scenario, the Packers are coming off a huge win over the Chargers and the Lions were barely able to beat the Bears….and it’s a short week.
I’m going to start with Jordan Love. Before you scoff, first note that the Lions have been giving up points to opposing offenses and are top 10 in the league in terms of average fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. If I’m getting contrarian, I’m starting Love in a plus matchup in a dome on a 3 game slate.
If this matchup is close, the Lions will play a lot of Cover 3, which is when Christian Watson and Jayden Reed have had better days. In a game script where the Packers are playing catchup, the Lions will move to Cover 4, which has been when Romeo Dobbs has had good outings. Tucker Kraft is going to have ownership because of his cheap price and because Luke Musgrave is out.
In week 4 in this matchup, David Montgomery had 121 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs plus 2 catches for 20 yards. The Packers struggle to stop the run, and Detroit might be content to run all game. Jahmyr Gibbs has gotten the Lion’s (pun intended) share of the carries, including goal line work. However, while I am hoping for a good game here, this could a huge letdown if the Packers are no shows and the Lions just run it down their throats all day. That could make it so both Gibbs an Montgomery are viable. There will be lineups with both RBs. Two weeks ago Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren had a combined 40.6 DraftKings points against the Packers.
Jared Goff probably won’t have to air it out a ton in this one, though it is a Lions home game so it shouldn’t be a full fade. CB Jaire Alexander might be back in time to help contain Amon-Ra.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
The biggest decision of the day for DFS players rests with this game and what to do with it. Over the last 3 weeks, the Boys and the Commanders are tied for 2nd in the league in plays per game with 71.7. It doesn’t take much research to figure that out. The 49 total is enough to lead players to this game anyway.
The Cowboys will be the most popular stack on this slate. Over his last 4 games Dak Prescott is averaging 37 pass attempts. The Commanders are allowing the 3rd most passing yards per game (272.6), the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and just got thrown on by Joe Pesc, I mean Tommy DeVito. Washington is also allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. CBs Danny Johnson and Benjamin St-Juste have not been cutting it, so someone like CeeDee Lamb should find plenty of work in this one, potentially Ferguson, Gallup, and Cooks as well.
The Commanders are not the best against opposing RBs in the passing game, so Tony Pollard could be an interesting addition to Prescott stacks.
Going with Sam Howell as a contrarian play just could work here. I think his ownership will be higher than the 10% that I have him at, however. The Boys play man coverage a lot, and Terry McLaurin is frequently targeted against man. Dallas will be likely to dial up pressure against this offensive line, but that could put Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas in play as they could be the focus in instances when Howell needs to make a quick pass. Antonio Gibson, if he plays, would be a sneaky option in Howell stacks.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks have a pretty decent run defense, which makes me question just how high CMC will be owned on Thursday. The Seahawks can be susceptible to pass-attacking RBs, which might make Deebo viable if he receives some RB pass-catching work. The Seahawks are playing a bunch of Cover 3, which Brandon Aiyuk frequently receives targets against. The slot area of the field is where the Seahawks are most vulnerable, so George Kittle could find himself in the optimal Turkey Day lineup.
Drew Lock may or may not be starting this game, and Kenneth Walker is also likely out. Zach Charbonnet could end up being one of the highest-owned players, and he may not need to do much at his salary to make his way into the optimal lineup. Seattle will attempt to slow this game down with an effective rushing game and play-action passes. With the addition of Chase Young, the 49ers defense has gotten better. They should be formidable against the run and be able to dial up pressure on Lock or Geno.
Where am I going?
- Getting different on this slate is going to be a challenge. One way to do that is to triple-stack a QB like Dak.
- I’ll be playing a lot of Gibbs and Monty lineups.
- If CMC stays at that ownership, I’m probably fading. If you had faded him on every main slate he’s been on in 2023, it would have hurt you but one time.
Matt, aka Boris, had a friend in his high school freshman English class once mistakenly call him that, and the nickname has somehow stuck ever since. He has been playing fantasy football since the early 2000s and Daily Fantasy Sports since 2015. Boris has been writing about DFS since 2020 and is excited to be a part of GridIron Experts. He has a wife (proving someone can stand him) and a daughter. Boris loves the beach, skiing, hockey, soccer, and football. He attempts to teach high school English, and aspires to make a ton of money in DFS. Follow him on Twitter @Borisnow00.