15 Tempting Super Bowl XLIV Prop Bets

Tempting Super Bowl Prop Bets

Super Bowl Prop BetsThere are so many things to love about the Super Bowl, and the ability to bet on just about every facet of the game is one of my favorite aspects of the big game. It’s not even a matter of wanting to actually place a wager on all of the Super Bowl prop bets, but it’s nice to know that I can speculate on the important things in life, like the length of the national anthem, Katy Perry’s wardrobe, and Marshawn Lynch’s crotch.

Beyond the props that border on the ridiculous, there is typically a group of actual game-related wagers that catch my attention. The following are seven prop bets that I will be tempted to make before kickoff on Sunday. Why seven, you might ask? After combing over the available props and statistics, these are simply the bets that I would make with the greatest confidence.

1. Will Julian Edelman (Patriots) Score a Touchdown

  • Yes (+120)
  • No (-150)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

Julian Edelman Super Bowl Prop BetsJulian Edelman only had four touchdowns on the season and will likely be paired up against elite Seahawks CB Richard Sherman when Edelman lines up on the right side of the line. Although Edelman does generate a healthy number of redzone targets, crunching the numbers indicates he has a less than 30% chance of scoring a touchdown. Jody’s Pick: NO

2. Total Receptions – Julian Edelman

  • Over 6.5 (-115)
  • Under 6.5 (-115)

Jason Willan -Gridiron Experts

Edelman has seen double-digit targets in seven of his last eight games, reeling in 64 catches over that period including 17 grabs through New England’s first two playoff games. Working primarily out of the slot, Randall Cobb caught seven balls against Seattle in the NFC Championship game despite conservative play calling in the second half, and Edelman will likely enjoy similar success in the middle of the field. Expect a lot of short-to-intermediate routes for Edelman in the Super Bowl, with a slew of targets and catches. Jason’s Pick:  OVER

3. Total Receiving Yards – Doug Baldwin

  • Over 54.5 (-125)
  • Under 54.5 (-105)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

Fresh off of a 106-yard performance in the NFC Championship game, a 55-yard threshold might seem like a layup for Baldwin. But over the course of the season, including two playoff games, he’s registered 55 yards or more on just six occasions. Throw in the fact that Baldwin is likely to be covered by Darrelle Revis for most of the game and I think it’s likely that he once again falls short of this yardage target. Jody’s Pick: UNDER

4. Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?

  • Julian Edelman +7.5 (-115)
  • Rob Gronkowski -7.5 (-115)

Jason Willan -Gridiron Experts

In the last six games that Edelman and Gronk have been on the field together, Edelman has 17 more catches and 43 more receiving yards. As I already mentioned, I think Edelman is going to have a good game in the Super Bowl, and I think he is just as likely to lead the Patriots in receiving yards as Gronk. So, I’ll take the 7.5 points and go with the receiver in his prop. Jason’s Pick:  EDELMAN

 Marshawn Lynch5. Total Rushing Yards: Marshawn Lynch

  • Over 89.5 (-130)
  • Under 89.5 (even)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

If you played this number in all 18 games the Seahawks have played this season, the UNDER would have hit 11 times. Good defenses have been able to shut down Lynch at times this year. In fact, the Panthers and Rams each held Lynch to 60 yards or less TWICE each in 2014. Four of Lynch’s six 100+ rushing yard performances during the 2014 season came against bottom 10 run defenses, including Green Bay (twice 23rd, Kansas City 28th and the New York Giants (30th). Meanwhile the Patriots finished the regular season 9th against the run and a key component of any Bill Belichick gameplan is to shut down what the opponent does best. In Seattle’s case, that’s run the ball with Marshawn Lynch. Jody’s Pick: UNDER

Mike Rigz -Gridiron Experts

I agree with Jody on this one. Bill Belicheck’s entire gameplan will be to try and take away the run game. His focus will be to force Wilson to beat the Patriots through the air. The Hawks power run game is their bread and butter and without it they sputter on offense. I think Lynch gets close, maybe 75 yards with a score, but 90 is a tough Super Bowl Prop Bet. Mike likes the Under

6.Who will throw the first Interception in the game?

  • Brady (-150)
  • Wilson (+120)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

New England Patriots AFC Champs Fan GearThis could easily be a game with both teams avoiding airing it out against strong secondaries, therefore seeing no interceptions. That being said, Brady has been much more careful with the ball (see next answer) so the play would be to take the better odds here. Jody’s Pick: WILSON

7. Longest Reception – Jermaine Kearse

  • Over 22.5 yds (-115)
  • Under 22.5 yds (-115)

Jason Willan -Gridiron Experts

The Patriots have given up at least one pass play of 24 yards or more in every game this season, including the playoffs. Meanwhile, Kearse had at least one catch of 24 yards or more in eight games this year, including a 63-yarder verses Carolina and a 35-yarder against Green Bay in the playoffs. Betting on a long catch for a specific player is a little fluky, but Seattle will try to take pressure off of its running game by taking a few deep shots with Russell Wilson, and Kearse has been the primary target on those types of plays. Jason’s Pick: Over

 Tom Brady8. Tom Brady Interceptions:

  • Over 1.5 (+190)
  • Under 1.5 (-230)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

In five prior Superbowls, Brady’s touchdown to interception ratio is 9 to 2. During the 2014 season, including playoffs, Brady’s ratio is 39 to 11. Combining those two, it’s about a 4 to 1 ratio. The Seahawks have an elite secondary, but the best guess here is that Brady will be careful with the ball and avoid costly mistakes. Jody’s Pick: UNDER

9. Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady

  • Over 260.5 (-130)
  • Under 260.5 (EVEN)

Jason Willan -Gridiron Experts

Brady eclipsed 260 yards passing in nine games this season, including a 367-yard effort in the divisional round of the playoffs against Baltimore. But now he’s facing the top passing defense in the NFL in a Seahawks team that allowed a league-low 185.6 yards per game during the regular season. It’s a unit that just held Aaron Rodgers to 171 yards in the NFC Championship game and has allowed just one quarterback to exceed 260 yards in its last 14 games. Jason’s Pick:  UNDER

10. Will Luke Willson (SEA) score a TD in the game?

  • YES (+300)
  • NO (-400)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

The Patriots only gave up six scores to tight ends this season, but they were one of only three clubs to surrender 1000+ yards to the position. Wilson isn’t much of a threat, but if you insist on making one throwaway bet, the 3 to 1 payout for YES seems appealing. Jody’s Pick: YES

Mike Rigz -Gridiron Experts

The Seahawks have been desperately looking to find a reliable target for Wilson in the Red Zone. Wilson has stepped up in the last few games. I feel the Patriots will force the Seahawks to throw, and a big trusted target like Wilson over the middle will be clutch throughout the game. At +300, you have to like those odds. Mike’s Pick: YES

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11.Will Tom Brady record 300 or more Passing Yards?

  • YES (+170)
  • NO (-210)
Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts
Brady has eclipsed that number only 6 of 18 games this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks did not allow a 300 yard passer at all in 2014. In fact, the Legion of Boom secondary only allowed more than 275 yards in a game ONE time all season. From Week 7 and on, Seattle is allowing a mere 162 passing yards per contest. Jody’s Pick: NO

12. Will Russell Wilson have 35 or more Passing Attempts?

  • YES (+300)
  • NO (-400)

Jody Smith -Gridiron Experts

Again, just looking at raw numbers, this seems like a sure thing. Wilson eclipsed 35 passing attempts only 2 out of 18 times in 2014. During the regular season, New England opponents averaged 35.9 attempts per game against the Patriots, but that is considering how many times teams were in “come from behind mode” during the second half of big New England victories. That isn’t likely on Sunday. The thought of laying $400 to win $100 is a bad idea, but if you insist, take the Jody’s Pick: NO

13. Total Receiving Yards – Luke Willson

  • Over 29.5 (-135)
  • Under 29.5 (+105)

Jason Willan -Gridiron Experts

Gear up for Super Bowl XLIX at NFLShop.comI’m doubling down on the Seahawks tight end for this one. Only seven teams gave up more catches to tight ends during the regular season than New England, and just two allowed more receiving yards to the position. That trend has continued into the playoffs, as Owen Daniels caught four passes for 41 yards and a score against the Patriots in the divisional round, while Coby Fleener (three catches for 30 yards) and Dwayne Allen (four grabs for 30 yards) each found a level of success in the AFC Championship game. Even excluding his 80-yard touchdown in Week 15, Willson has averaged 2.5 receptions and 42.5 receiving yards over his last four games and he has been as involved as anyone outside of Doug Baldwin in Seattle’s passing game during the playoffs. My PickOVER

Player Odds Player Odds
Rob Gronkowski  TE 13/4 Marshawn Lynch  RB 5/2
LeGarrette Blount  RB 9/2 Doug Baldwin  WR 6/1
Julian Edelman  WR 5/1 Russell Wilson  QB 6/1
Brandon LaFell  WR 6/1 Jermaine Kearse  WR 7/1
Shane Vereen  RB 8/1 Luke Willson  TE 8/1
Danny Amendola  WR 11/1 Ricardo Lockette  WR 10/1
Timothy Wright  TE 11/1 Robert Turbin  RB 12/1
Brandon Bolden  RB 16/1 Cooper Helfer  TE 16/1
Jonas Gray  RB 16/1 Kevin Norwood  WR 20/1
Tom Brady  QB 16/1 Christine Michael  RB 25/1
James Devlin  FB 25/1 Tony Moeaki  TE 25/1
M.Hoomanawanui  TE 25/1 Will Tukuafu  TE 25/1
Field 9/1 Field 7/1

14. Who will score the PAT’s first TD

Jody Smith -Gridiron ExpertsSmart money is on the Pats sticking with LeGarrette Blount and trying to grind the ball out. 4.1/2 to 1 for that bet isn’t bad. If you’re the gambling type that likes the big payoff, look at Tim Wright as an 11 to 1 longshot.

Mike Rigz -Gridiron ExpertsShane Vereen at 8 to 1 is very tempting to me. I can just picture a shotgun play where he zig’s and zags a linebacker out of position and snags a tough grab for 6 yards in the endzone. Mike likes: Shane Vereen

15.Who Will score the Seahawks first TD

Jody Smith -Gridiron ExpertsThe Pats will be ready for Beast Mode when it comes down to short yardage. Seems like the perfect time to run a patented zone read roll out with Wilson getting around the edge and beating the secondary to the corner with a touchdown scramble.

Mike Rigz -Gridiron ExpertsI also have Russell Wilson keeping the ball in a option play for an easy score. The threat for Lynch will be the focus all game for the Patriots, allowing the rest of the Seahawks to move around for opportunities to score.

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