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Super Bowl Prop Bet History and Trends

Tyreek Hill

Super Bowl Prop Bet History

Tom Brady is heading to yet another Super Bowl, why am I not surprised. While this time representing the NFC for change, Tom Brady has been to 18% of all Super Bowls, which is a mind-blowing statistic when you think there were a dozen Super Bowls before he was even born.

I’ll save you the history lesson on Brady’s dominance in the NFL and his age, you’ve heard it before. Frankly, I’m more upset I didn’t cash in when the stock was low. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl odds went from +4500 to +1200 when Brady signed with the Bucs, but even at +1200, he was worth a small wager. The man is a machine and deep down we all knew there was a very good chance he could be a part of the first team to host a Super Bowl.

Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs are the favorites in the Super Bowl match odds as they have been the dominant team and look to defend their title, but it’s always a brave move to bet against Brady. That is why I thought I would compile a list of some other popular bets for the Super Bowl and see if we can spot any trends or patterns.

Super Bowl 54 53 52 51 50 49 48
Teams
Score: KC 31-20 NE 13-3 PHI 41-33 NE 34-28 DEN 24-10 NE 28-24 SEA 43-8
Line KC -1 O/U 54 NE -2 O/U 55.5 NE -4 O/U 48 NE-3 O/U 57 CAR-4 O/U 46 NE-1 O/U 48 DEN-2 O/U 48
Point Spread Favorite Favorite Underdog Favorite Underdog Favorite Underdog
Over/Under Under Under Over Over Under Over Over
Team to score first wins No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Team to score last wins Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Score first in 6:30 min No (7:03) No (2nd Q) No (7:05) No (2nd Q) Yes Yes Yes
Score Last 2min before 1st Half No No Yes Yes No Yes No
Score Last 2min before 2nd Half No Yes Yes Yes No No No
Safety No No No No No No Yes
Defensive/ST TD No No No Yes Yes No Yes
Missed PAT No No Yes Yes No No No
First TD Run Run Pass Run Run Pass Run
Longest TD O/U 48.5y Under Under Under Over Under Under Over

Super Bowl Prop Bet Trends

Betting the Under – It sure has felt like Super Bowl jitters have played a part in the last two Super Bowls. Mind you, the last two Super Bowls did feature some good defenses. The Over/Under for Super Bowl LV is 56, which seems too high for me but to end the two-year streak.

Patrick MahomesTeam To Score Last Wins – I was surprised to learn that in the last 7 Super Bowls the team that has scored last wins the game. Obviously, this has no effect on this year’s game, but I like betting on trends and patterns. I haven’t been able to find odds on this bet yet, so if you do, remember you read that here. Bet team to score last wins.

Will There be a Score first in 6:30 min? – Sticking with low-scoring first quarters and being conservative early in the big game, I’m not that surprised the last four Super Bowls have been “NO” to a score in the first 6min and 30 seconds. I would bet this for Super Bowl LV, unfortunately, the sportsbooks have picked up on this bet and changed it to the first score in 7 min and 3o seconds. Because of Super Bowl 52 & 54, I think they feel the house has far better odds if they add a minute. The best odds I have found for this bet is Yes -230 and No -160.

Will there be a Safety in Super Bowl LV? – If you talk to people about random prop bets, the safety comes up a lot. I think the general consensus thinks that a safety has been a common trend in Super Bowls. When in fact there haven’t been on in six years. There was a streek in back in the day, around 7 years ago. If you’re going to bet this, find good odds on “NO” there will not be a safety.

Will there be a Missed PAT? – Between these two kickers, there has been two missed extra points, they each missed one. While both these kickers have been solid throughout the postseason, this game does feel like there will be more touchdowns than field goals, so the opportunity should be there. Keep that in mind, the bet is for missing the point after. While the total points of the game (56) does feel high to me, settling for kicking the field goal has been death in the playoffs thus far. I could see seven opportunities for a PAT in this game. Your chances are pretty good someone will miss one. I like this bet.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. T

    January 30, 2021 at Saturday, January,30

    Hey Mike,

    Will you be releasing the super bowl props sheet again for this year? Always look forward to it.

    Cheers,

    TM

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