NFL Picks

Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets Chiefs vs Eagles

By Gladys Louise Tyler

Posted on February 7, 2023

Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

Welcome to Super Bowl LVII prop bets. As you know, you can make thousands of prop bets on this game. I will give you the nine(ish) that I think are interesting and have decent odds.

Remember, you don’t have to stick with one site when you bet. And while this is fun, go into your bets with some information and a strategy(ish).

I will give both “exotic bets” and game time bets. And yes, I will always have my nemesis bet going, the first touchdown bet. As for strategy, a predictive game script is important. For instance, I believe the Philadelphia Eagles have the better team, and the Kansas City Chiefs have the better coach. The Chiefs also have Patrick Mahomes, which slightly skews the analysis (no disrespect, because Jalen Hurts is fire). Because I believe this game is too close to call, I will hedge some of my bets. Feel free not to do that. Let’s do this!

As always we here at Gridiron Experts ask you to research your sportsbooks if you’re thinking about signing up and betting on this year’s game. There are a lot of great bonus offers for first-time users, click here for detailed guides and reviews. Also, remember to check to see where online casino or sportsbook is available in your area.

How Long Will the National Anthem Take?

Over 2:02 (-135)
Under 2:02 (+105)

Let’s start with the classic. Contemporary country star Chris Stapleton will be singing the National Anthem. Thanks to Bryan Knowles’s diligent research, we know there is no video of Stapleton singing the National Anthem anywhere!

We know that the shortest Super Bowl National Anthem was Billy Joel clocking in at 1:30. The longest was superstar Alicia Keys going the distance at 2:35.

This is the Super Bowl, and Stapleton will finally have a video of him singing the National Anthem. Surely, he wants something memorable.

My Pick: Over -135

Will the Opening Kickoff Be a Touchback?

Yes (-175)
No (+140)

The Super Bowl is in Arizona, with an indoor stadium. In 17 of the last 20 Super Bowls, there has been a return on an opening kickoff.

Philadelphia and Kansas City are 11^th and 12^th in NFL team kickoff touchback percentage (Philadelphia 64.55% and Kansas City (64.55%). But the Chiefs have 30 kickoff returns for the season, and the Eagles have 34.

Isiah Pacheco is the leading kick returner for Kansas City. He has 597 yards, the sixth most in the NFL.

Boston Scott is the leading kick returner for the Eagles. He has 15 returns for 406 yards.

56% of the money says the opening kickoff will be a touchback. That sounds excited kicker kicking the bejesus out of the ball. According to Pat McAfee, the ball used on the opening kickoff is only used then and then sent to the Hall of Fame. New hardball, indoor stadium, I am going against the money here.

My Pick: No +140

Team to Score First

Kansas City Chiefs (+100)
Philadelphia Eagles (-130)

The Eagles have scored first in 11 of 16 games when Jalen Hurts started under center. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to score first in seven of 19 games.

Eagles -130

Jalen Hurts to Throw a Touchdown Pass in The First Quarter

Odds: Yes+215

The Eagles scored an opening drive touchdown in their two playoff games. They have scored a league-high 62 points on opening drives.

The Chiefs’ defense has given up the most passing touchdowns (33).

My Pick: Yes +215

First Touchdown Scorer (also known as My Nemesis)

The hedge bet. While I believe that the Eagles will score first, I am going with the long shot on the first touchdown scorer (I mean, why not).

The Eagles are sixth in DVOA on passes to the tight end BUT 24^th in passes to running backs.

And I know that Pacheco out-snapped Jerick McKinnon 39-27 in the game against Cincinnati. And since Week 15, McKinnon has only had 43 rushing yards on 24 carries.

But my gut says this is McKinnon’s game (it also told me to eat that doughnut last night at 1 am, so it is completely off the rails).

If the Chiefs get the ball first, I believe they will score.

My Pick: McKinnon +1100

Which Will Be the Highest Scoring Quarter?

The Chiefs were first in offensive DVOA in both the first and second quarters. That number drops to second in the third quarter and seventh in the fourth.

The Eagles were third in offensive DVOA in the first quarter, fifth in the second, 13^th in the third, and ninth in the fifth quarter.

Per footballoutsiders.com, the Chiefs and Eagles played 35 games with their starting quarterbacks. In 21 of those games, the second quarter was the highest-scoring quarter.

My Pick: Third Quarter +680

Here is why: the competition is more balanced, and with a longer halftime, the teams have more time for adjustments. I am hoping, of course, that it is a close game and that the teams are using the first half to acclimate themselves to the Super Bowl. (Am I trying to talk myself into this?)

Most Receiving Yards

The Eagles defense has only allowed four 100+ receiving yards. The Chiefs have given up 11 over 80 receiving yards and six over 100+.

The Chiefs’ defense is particularly vulnerable to WR1, but in Philadelphia, who is WR1?

We know that the Chiefs play a two-high safety on 54.8% of their defensive plays. Devonta Smith is the Eagles’ wide receiver who has benefited the most. In the four games the Eagles played against two-high, Smith had 100+ yards in three.

My Pick: Devonta Smith +300

Or Devonta Smith 100+ yards +333

Player to Record First Sack Full Game

The Philadelphia Eagles had 70 total sacks for the season. The Chiefs were second, but it wasn’t close with 55.

Chris Jones was a beast in the AFC Championship game. But he will go against the PFF’s first-ranked offensive line this game. But the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was tied for seventh for the most sacked quarterback in the league (38).

The Chiefs will record the first sack, but the Eagles have the most sacks.

My Pick: Frank Clark +750

Will A Player Record an Octopus?

I just learned that an octopus in the NFL is when a player scores a touchdown and also scores a two-point conversion.

Okay, so Patrick Mahomes has scored three two-point conversions, but to have an octopus, he also has to score a rushing touchdown. The best bet to do it will be Jalen Hurts, who has scored two two-point conversions and has 13 rushing touchdowns.

I like my odds, especially if it will be a close game.

My Pick: Yes, +650 (Just in case you were wondering the odds for No -1400)

Conclusion

There is approximately a $7.6 billion bet on Super Bowl prop bets. There are props for Rihanna’s halftime show…so many props, from the first song she will sing (What’s My Name +500) to the number of songs in her set (under 9.5 -105) to what will occur during her performance (A$AP Rocky to appear on stage +300).

It is all so much fun. Bet responsibly, and good luck.

Also, check out our yearly 10 Ridiculous Super Bowl Prop Bets

Gladys Louise Tyler

Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.