Super Bowl LIX Best Bets
Another year in the books, another profitable season. This column wrapped up the year at 36-22-2 (61.8%), marking the third straight profitable season since we started three years ago. That kind of consistency doesn’t happen by accident.
Now, we’ve arrived at the final game of the season, and fittingly, it’s a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, a game that two years ago ended in a 38-35 Chiefs victory. A lot has changed since then.
Patrick Mahomes was fresh off a 5,000-yard, 41-touchdown season heading into that Super Bowl. This year, he’s put up a more modest 3,900 yards and 29 touchdowns. The Eagles, meanwhile, have added the league’s best pure runner in Saquon Barkley, giving them an offensive dimension they lacked in that shootout two years ago.
Interestingly, the Chiefs were ranked higher in overall DVOA than the Eagles in that Super Bowl but were underdogs. This time, it’s flipped; the Eagles come in with the better DVOA ranking, but they’re the ones getting points. Neither team is a stranger to the big stage. This marks Philadelphia’s third Super Bowl appearance in eight years and Kansas City’s fifth in seven years, the top two marks in the NFL over that span.
[the_ad id=’104521′]Super Bowl LIX Best Bet
Kansas City’s playoff success is well-documented. They win close games, they find ways to adjust, and Mahomes has never lost a conference title game in regulation. But there’s a fine line between playoff mastery and good fortune, and this Chiefs team has walked it all year. They’ve won an absurd number of close games, finished just eighth in DVOA, and relied more on their defense than at any point in the Mahomes era. There’s no question they raise their game in the postseason, but is that a repeatable skill, or have they just flipped heads seven times in a row?
The Eagles enter this game with one major difference from their last Super Bowl meeting: Saquon Barkley. Two years ago, Philadelphia relied on a running back committee that totaled just 45 rushing yards against Kansas City. Now, they have the most dominant pure runner in the league, a back who has already outrushed the entire Chiefs team in these playoffs. Kansas City’s run defense was dominant early in the year, but since Week 11, they’ve ranked 20th in EPA against the run and 24th in success rate, allowing 4.85 yards per carry. That’s a massive problem against an Eagles offensive line built to wear teams down over four quarters.
While the running game will be critical, this matchup will ultimately be decided by the quarterbacks and the defensive chess match between Vic Fangio and Steve Spagnuolo. Fangio is known for his two-high safety looks, but this season, the Eagles played single-high coverage 62% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league. That approach could shift in this game, as Mahomes has been significantly less effective against two-high coverage (-6.0% DVOA, 23rd in the NFL) than against single-high looks. If Philadelphia leans into those deeper safety looks, they could force Mahomes into a methodical, dink-and-dunk game plan, one that Kansas City has struggled to execute at times this season.
On the other side, Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz schemes have defined the Chiefs’ defensive identity. Mahomes has thrived against the blitz in the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts has also been heavily blitzed all year (seventh in blitzed dropbacks) and is used to handling pressure. The bigger problem for Kansas City is that Philadelphia’s offensive line is one of the best in the league, meaning the usual edge Spagnuolo gets from sending extra rushers may not be as effective here.
Red-zone execution will be another key factor. The Eagles had the No. 1 pass defense this season, but in the red zone, they were just 19th against the pass. That could open the door for Travis Kelce, but Philadelphia also ranked third in DVOA against tight ends, meaning Spagnuolo may need to find other answers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had the best red-zone pass defense in the league, but ranked just 16th against red-zone runs. That’s a major issue against an Eagles team that has the most reliable short-yardage weapon in football—the tush push. If this game comes down to fourth-and-short in the red zone, Philadelphia has a clear edge.
[the_ad id=’104525′]Another hidden factor? Hurts’ legs. The Chiefs allowed a league-high 50 scrambles this season at 7.5 yards per carry, and while Hurts hasn’t been at full health, he remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the game. If Kansas City gets aggressive with their blitzes, Hurts could extend drives with his legs, keeping Mahomes on the sideline.
In Super Bowl LVII, the Eagles led at halftime before the Chiefs executed a flawless second-half game plan to steal the win. This time, the matchups favor Philadelphia in a way they didn’t before. Barkley gives them the ability to control the game late, their defense is built to limit Mahomes’ explosiveness, and they have the short-yardage edge in a close game.
The dynasty dreams die in New Orleans. For the first time in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs get outplayed on the biggest stage. The Eagles grind out a 23-21 victory to claim their second Lombardi Trophy.
Best Bet: Philadelphia +1.5
