Sports Betting

Super Bowl Futures Bets

By Doug

Posted on October 20, 2022

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Mid-Season Super Odds Preview

With the season more than one-third of the way over, we have a good sense of who the teams that will be contending for the Super Bowl are. Buffalo and Kansas City in the AFC and Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in the NFC are the top choices among oddsmakers, but does that mean they’re the best teams to bet on to win the Super Bowl? To answer that question, you have to know the odds the sportsbooks have set for each team and decide if it’s worth placing a bet. Not all sportsbooks have the same odds, so it’s worth shopping around for the best ones. For NFL vegas odds and futures bets, you’re placing money now for a hopeful payout in the future. I like to hedge my bets and place them on a few different teams I’ve identified as having value. Here’s how I’m betting.

Super Bowl Odds (as of October 20th 2022)

• Buffalo Bills+275
• Philadelphia Eagles+550
• Kansas City Chiefs+800
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers+900
• Los Angeles Chargers+1600
• Minnesota Vikings+1800
• Baltimore Ravens+2000
• Green Bay Packers+2000
• Dallas Cowboys+2200
• Los Angeles Rams+2500
• San Francisco 49ers+2500
• Cincinnati Bengals+2800
• Miami Dolphins+4000
• Indianapolis Colts+6000
• Las Vegas Raiders+6000
• New England Patriots+6000
• New York Giants+6000
• Tennessee Titans+6000
• Cleveland Browns+8000
• Denver Broncos+8000
• Jacksonville Jaguars+8000
• New Orleans Saints+8000
• New York Jets+9000
• Arizona Cardinals+10000
• Falcons+15000
• Detroit Lions+20000
• Pittsburgh Steelers+20000
• Seattle Seahawks+20000
• Carolina Panthers+50000
• Washington Commanders+50000
• Chicago Bears+100000
• Houston Texans+100000

The Sure Thing

Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl Odds +275

I know this one seems too easy, but sometimes the obvious bet is the right one.  By almost anyone’s measure, the Bills are the best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders ranks them number one in Offensive DVOA, Defensive DVOA and Total DVOA.  Pro Football Focus has them ranked number one in their power rankings. The Bills are +275, which means for every $1 you bet, you win $2.75. In order to see if that’s a good bet, first I calculate the implied odds, which comes to 26.67%. This means the oddsmakers believe Buffalo has a 26.67% chance to win the Super Bowl. Next, I look at my rankings, which I also calculate into odds. I give the Bills a 29.5% chance to win. Since my odds are greater than the oddsmakers, I believe this gives me a better chance to make a profitable bet. The downside to this bet is I’m not going to make a ton of money on it. If I lay down $100 and win $275, that’s not bad, but the Super Bowl is three and a half months away and that means my $100 is being held by the sportsbooks during that time. I have to ask myself if the opportunity cost is worth the gamble on a relatively small profit. I think it is, so I’m comfortable making this bet.

The Optimal Bet

Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl Odds +2800

Right away, I’m drawn to the odds. +2800 wins me $2800 on a $100 bet. The implied odds only give Dallas a 3.45% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. My model has the Cowboys chances of winning the Super Bowl at 5.25%. Again, my odds are higher than the sportsbooks, so this is a good bet. Dallas has been able to cover the loss of Dak Prescott with their superior defensive and special teams play. With Prescott likely to return this week, the offense should progress to preseason expectations. There really aren’t many weaknesses, with the possible exception of coaching, on the Cowboys. Even if you’re a low-stakes bettor, throw $10 on Dallas and you’ve got a decent chance to collect $280 on February 12. This is my favorite futures bet to make.

The Longshot

Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl Odds +5000

Everyone likes to bet on a longshot and I’m no different. Tennessee sure seems like a longshot with just under a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to Vegas. It’s hard to disagree with that and I only have them slightly higher at 2.3%. There is some disagreement about how bad, or good, the Titans are. Football Outsiders have Tennessee 19th in Total DVOA while PFF has the Titans ranked 8th overall. I tend to agree more with the Outsiders, but it’s hard to ignore PFF’s ranking. Tennessee is 3-2 and plays Indianapolis and Houston the next two weeks. They could be 5-2 and in control of their division. There’s a credible path for the Titans to finish 10-7 and win the AFC South. AT +5000, this is a very profitable bet in the unlikely event it hits. I’ll throw a small bet in and cross my fingers. Stranger things have happened.

It’ll Never Happen, But If It Did

Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl Odds +12500

Ok, it’s not going to happen. You know it and I know it. But, hear me out. Atlanta is 3-3 and they have arguably the easiest remaining schedule. Their offense is 8th in points scored. I think they’ve played better than expected so far. I can see them scraping by and getting into the playoffs. Once there, you never know. Imagine placing a $10 bet and winning $1250 on it. There’s not much to lose and you have a greater than zero chance of winning, so why not? I mean, it’ll never happen, but if it did…