Super Bowl Trends and Traps to Avoid When Betting
Super Bowl Betting Trends to Avoid
When it comes to betting on NFL football, it’s important to avoid trends that have no predictive value. This is particularly relevant for major events like the Super Bowl, where emotions and media coverage can often create false narratives. Using trends can be a useful tool in making bets, as patterns and tendencies can give insight into the possible outcome of a sporting event. It’s important to remember that trends are not a guarantee of future results and should be used in conjunction with other factors and analyses. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting started, make sure to stay informed and avoid these misleading trends.
In my opinion, you’re better off looking at sportsbook software by BetConstruct or doing research about the two opponents’ strengths and weaknesses. Trends are misleading and don’t play a role in the outcome of the big game, especially since both teams have extra time to prepare.
A winning streak may seem like a positive trend, but it can sometimes be misleading and doesn’t guarantee future success. Teams can have a string of victories due to favorable matchups or good luck, which may not be a true reflection of their overall performance. The Chiefs are on a seven-game winning streak while the Eagles have won three in a row. Prior to that, Philadelphia lost in back-to-back weeks. However, Jalen Hurts missed those two games and if you take those out of the equation, the Eagles have won their last eight games that Hurts has started.
Focusing on the score or point spread of previous games can be misleading, as each game is unique and influenced by various factors. Philadelphia leads the NFL with a +9.9 average score margin. Kansas City is fourth-best with a +7.2 score margin. While scoring margin is certainly useful to determine relative team strength, a team’s schedule should also be factored. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles had the league’s easiest schedule, so it’s not surprising to see them with the top-scoring margin.
Past Super Bowl Trends
Focusing solely on past Super Bowl trends, such as the performance of teams in previous Super Bowls, can be misleading as each Super Bowl is unique and influenced by different factors. The game changes so much from year to year as new coaching strategies and rule changes can affect how this year’s team would have performed in a previous year.
Betting on a trend that is based on a single, isolated event, such as a player having a standout performance in one game, is not a reliable or repeatable betting strategy. Just because Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught six passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game, doesn’t mean he’s Patrick Mahomes’ top target now.
Public Betting Trends
Following the public betting trends, such as which team is receiving the most bets, is not a reliable or sound betting strategy. The general public may not have access to the same information or analysis that professional bettors use, and can be influenced by factors such as emotions and biases.
Speaking of emotions and biases, betting based on them, such as rooting for a favorite team, is not a sound betting strategy. Emotional trends ignore objective analysis and can lead to impulsive and irrational decisions. Your undying love for your favorite team makes the game more fun to watch, but it can cause double devastation if you lose a bad bet based on your heart instead of your head.
Much has been written about the team wearing their white jerseys having won 15 of the past 18 Super Bowls. On the surface, those are pretty compelling numbers. However, betting on a team based on their uniform color is not a reliable or logical approach. This type of trend ignores important factors such as team and player performance, tactics, and opponent strength. It’s purely coincidental and should not be given even a little weight when deciding which team to bet on.
Coin Toss Trends
Betting on the outcome of a coin toss, such as heads or tails, is purely a matter of chance and luck, and has no bearing on the outcome of the actual sporting event.
Betting on the outcome of a game based on the presence or support of a celebrity or public figure is not a reliable betting strategy, it’s ridiculous. Unless that celebrity is Morgan Freeman. You should always listen to Morgan Freeman.
Betting on the outcome of a game based on superstitions, such as your pre-game meal or wearing your luck hat, is not a reliable or sound betting strategy. Although, I didn’t wear my usual Cowboys jersey when they lost to the 49ers and I did feel like some of the blame for their loss should have fallen on me.
Keep in mind, it’s important to use multiple sources of information and analytical methods when making sports betting decisions, rather than relying solely on trends that may be unreliable or misleading. It’s fun to get in on some Super Bowl action, but if you want to avoid throwing your money away, I advise you to do some research and make informed decisions based on substantive data. Or, just eat that bowl of Lucky Charms at halftime. It’s up to you!
Doug Burrell finished 2022 as Fantasy Nerd’s Most Accurate Expert in NFL Picks and Tallysight’s #1 ranked expert Against the Spread Expert out of 200+ experts. He is a veteran, a runner and an avid fantasy sports enthusiast since 1999. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.
Doug is a veteran, an avid runner, and works as a copywriter. He lives in North Carolina with his wife and three dogs. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.