Ricky Pearsall Fantasy Forecast 2024
There are basically two sides for the argument on whether or not Ricky Pearsall, a.k.a. “Slick Rick,” is going to be a productive NFL receiver: statistical analysts and watchers of film tape. Pearsall does not have a lot of statistical numbers on his side, but if you watched this guy play at all, then you have surely been entertained.
Recruiting and Collegiate Background
Ricky Pearsall is one of those kids who has played football since he could walk. His father is a former collegiate football player and current fire chief, and Pearsall’s mother was a collegiate volleyball athlete. As a varsity athlete, Pearsall set many school records while playing ironman football (WR, punt returner, safety) and set an Arizona state record with 342 receiving yards in a single game. While his Corona Del Sol High School team wasn’t very good, Pearsall still earned All-State Honors.
Because his team was not very good, Pearsall didn’t receive many collegiate offers. However, after a personal camp invite from Herm Edwards, Pearsall committed to Arizona State. Pearsall’s first three college seasons were not that great, but he did lead his team in receiving during his junior season. After Herm Edwards incurred NCAA COVID recruiting violations, Pearsall transferred to Florida, where he flourished with the Gators. He was primarily deployed from the slot and was an effective target for both Anthony Richardson and Graham Mertz. While those are very different QBs, Pearsall found success in both versions of an RPO offense. He ultimately took the option to return for a 5th season due to the COVID shortened year, and arguably that was a good decision since he was drafted in the first round by the San Francisco 49ers with the 31st pick.
Statistical and Athletic Notes
Below are the notes I made about Ricky Pearsall prior to this year’s draft.
- 3 star recruit
- Transfer influenced by Herm Edwards’ NCAA violations as well as general underutilization
- Extremely focused and flexible with balls thrown his way
- Described as having “velcro hands” and being a “sublime route runner”
- Quick cuts enable to separate from defenders
- Can find open spots in the middle of the field
- Good on screens and making first man miss
- Experienced punt returner (no muffs) and special teams player
- Described as mentally tough like firefighting father who was an All-American
- Had a good Senior Bowl and some impressive numbers at Combine
- Won “Best Catch of the Year”
- Willing to block but not the best due to physical stature
- Doesn’t blow past dbacks, will likely be run down in NFL
- Thin body frame and unlikely to get much bigger
- Can be out muscled so press coverage could be a challenge in NFL…Florida was heavy on RPOs with Anthony Richardson and Graham Mertz so defense’s had to respect that and didn’t press often
- Likely to be a slot heavy WR so snaps could be limited…landing spot will be key
- Will be a 24 year old rookie at start of 2024 season
- 5th year senior WRs don’t have a great NFL track record
- If this were the Pats and Tom Brady, he’d been on the list of Welker and Edelman types. Other comps include Christian Kirk
Rookie Odds
Pearsall is currently +7500 to win offensive rookie of the year. Highly unlikely when considering a likely specific role in San Francisco as well as all the other mouths to feed in that offense. Also, there are many other rookies with more talent and in better spots. I don’t know though, a $10 bet gets you $750. I’ve wasted ten dollars in worse ways. Deebo and Kittle have injury histories too.
The Good
Ricky Pearsall has landed in a very good offense. Though he seems destined for slot activities, he’s proven to be a versatile and hardworking player; he should fit right in with the 49er locker room. Pearsall also had a very good showing at the NFL Combine; he posted elite numbers in agility and explosiveness categories, including a best amongst all WRs in the 3 cone drill. Pearsall is not going to be asked to be the primary weapon in this offense, though I personally believe he could be one day. HC Kyle Shanahan has had nothing but nice things to say about this WR and was very excited to land Pearsall at 31 overall. I know I have had some inflammatory things to say about Shanahan’s ability to blow it in big games, but he is a very good assessor of talent.
The Bad
There are a ton of mouths to feed in San Fran. CMC is going to command the ball, so 49er pass catchers are going to have spike weeks and dud weeks. As such, Slick Rick’s fantasy output is initially going to be hard to predict. Jauan Jennings and Ronnie Bell are still here, and the Niners also brought in Chris Conley, so it’s not like Pearsall has a free ride to WR3 here. I believe in youth and talent, so I do believe that Pearsall will eventually rise to the top, but expecting that in the first half of the 2024 fantasy season doesn’t seem wise.
2023 Redraft Fantasy Outlook
Ricky Pearsall is currently going off the board at pick 165, a late 14th round pick. I absolutely love this range. It is quite appropriate for the range of outcomes for Pearsall in 2024. You should have multiple WRs and FLEX options at this point, so taking a flyer on an incredibly talented athlete in a very good offense, especially if you already have Deebo or Aiyuk, seems prudent in round 14.
Dynasty Outlook
Unless he becomes the next coming of Cooper Kupp, Pearsall is never going to be a WR1. Instead, he will be a very important piece as a secondary or tertiary option in a very good offense. If you told me he was being drafted by the Panthers to be Bryce Young’s primary option, I’d say no way. But if he is a Wes Welker to a Randy Moss, then we should definitely be in. The 49ers have shown themselves to be loyal to their pass catchers, so projecting Pearsall to be a part of this offense beyond his rookie contract is a safe projection.
Bold Prediction
Ricky Pearsall will make someone a millionaire in DFS at some point this season; a game against the Cardinals sounds appropriate.
Fun Fact
Ricky Pearsall was able to spend some time learning from Brandon Aiyuk at Arizona State. They are both now on the 49ers….for now anyway.
