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Pierre Garcon Fantasy Value in San Francisco

Pierre Garcon is out of Washington and on his way to San Francisco. He will be reunited with Kyle Shanahan who was Garcon’s offensive coordinator in 2013 with the Redskins. He is leaving a solid passing offense and going to an awful passing offense.

Pierre Garcon Fantasy Value

Pierre GarconPierre Garcon is out of Washington and on his way to San Francisco. He will be reunited with Kyle Shanahan who was Garcon’s offensive coordinator in 2013 with the Redskins. He is leaving a solid passing offense and going to an awful passing offense.  That being said he will be the number one target with the 49ers so there should be plenty of targets to go around.  The real question here is how his transition and situation with the 49ers impact his Fantasy Value in 2017?

If you want to read a more condensed fantasy reaction on Pierre Garcon you can read Biggest Fantasy Football Impacts from NFL Free Agency/ Trades, he is the second player on the list.

Transition

As stated above Garcon is transitioning to two completely different offenses going from a Redskins offense who ranked 7th in the NFL with 607 pass attempts in 2016 to the 49ers who ranked 29th with 491. Washington carved teams up through the air last season with 4,758 yards or 2nd best in the NFL compared to the 49ers who ranked dead last in the NFL with only 2,911 yards. As you can see he is going to a team who passes much less and is unsuccessful when they do decide to pass.

With all that being said, Garcon will be the top wide receiver for the 49ers which he wasn’t in Washington. So to truly figure out his Fantasy Value in 2017 it is important to look at his current situation.

Situation

We should start at the top because there are a ton of new faces in San Fransisco.  The 49ers have a new GM with John Lynch and a new head coach in Kyle Shanahan. Why does this matter to Garcon? Well, Garcon had his best season since entering the league in 2013 with Shanahan.  He had 113 receptions on 184 targets for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns. His 113 receptions were best in the NFL that season. Now expecting those numbers at age 30 and on a lackluster offense isn’t fair.

What is a fair assessment? Looking at numbers from the past.  But we aren’t looking at Garcon’s numbers we are looking at Brian Hoyer’s numbers from 2014. Why Hoyer? Well for starters he is a new face in San Fransisco and will likely be the starting quarterback and Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Hoyer in 2014 when he played for the Browns. Hoyer started 14 games and his numbers in those games were 3,326 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Hoyer’s leading receiver that season was Andrew Hawkins who had 63 catches on 112 targets for 824 yards and two touchdowns.

Also if there is anything I have learned about Hoyer is his how he is always injured. Never in his eight-year NFL career has he played a full 16 game season.  In fact, he has only ever played more than seven games, twice.  So with that being said, I wanted to look at how the passing offenses lead by Shanahan in their first season stacked up to the rest of the NFL, figuring there will be multiple quarterbacks playing this season for the 49ers.

  • Falcons 2015: 6th in passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns
  • Browns 2014: 20th in Passing yards and 32nd in passing touchdowns
  • Redskins 2010: 8th in passing yards and 22nd in passing in passing touchdowns
  • Texans 2008: 4th in passing yards and 13th in passing touchdowns

I think we can all agree on if one of these four were to happen which one it would be.  But I am curious to find out which scenario the fantasy football community believes is the most likely, so please vote.  So if you know my money is on Browns 2014, then I am sure you can figure out my confidence in the 49ers offense.

Overall Fantasy Value

Garcon hasn’t missed a game in the last four years which is very impressive and makes him a reliable option for real life football.  That being said he has only one season with more than 80 receptions and only two seasons with more than 1,000 yards. With a number of question marks surrounding the 49ers offense and the implementation of a confusing Kyle Shanahan offense in its first year gives me a reason to believe that Garcon will be at best a low-end WR3/WR4.  Curious to see where Garcon ranks among fantasy wide receivers in 2017? Then check out Gridiron Experts staff 2017 redraft wide receiver rankings.

 

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