Dynasty

Pierre Garcon Dynasty Value 2018: Should You Be Buying or Selling?

Pierre Garcon Dynasty Value

Pierre Garcon has played three seasons in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, two in Washington and now one in San Francisco. During his time with Shanahan, two of his three seasons were cut short due to injury.

Garcon had his career best year with Shanahan in 2013 where he played a full 16 game season. However, despite Garcon missing 14 games in the years with Shanahan, there is enough of a sample size to project what he would have averaged if healthy. If his pace stayed true, he would have averaged 87.6 catches on 143.3 targets for 1,119.3 yards and 3.6 touchdowns per season in Shanahan’s offense.

So where would those numbers rank him at in PPR leagues in 2017?

Pierre Garcon would have finished as a mid-range WR2 in scoring (16th) and a WR1 in yards (9th), targets (10th) and receptions (10th). There is only one stat that Garcon doesn’t finish as a WR2 or better, and that is touchdowns, where he finished outside the top 40. That is really the only area that Garcon didn’t produce in, yet touchdowns are hard to come by consistently.

However, the x-factor to all of this is Garcon was injured week eight in 2017, and never caught a pass in a Jimmy Garoppolo.

Pierre Garcon Career Stats
Year Age Tm G Tgt Rec Yds TD R/G Y/G
2008 22
14 4 4 23 0 0.3 1.6
2009 23
14 92 47 765 4 3.4 54.6
2010 24
14 119 67 784 6 4.8 56
2011 25
16 134 70 947 6 4.4 59.2
2012 26
10 68 44 633 4 4.4 63.3
2013 27
16 181 113 1346 5 7.1 84.1
2014 28
16 105 68 752 3 4.3 47
2015 29
16 111 72 777 6 4.5 48.6
2016 30
16 114 79 1041 3 4.9 65.1
2017 31
8 67 40 500 0 5 62.5
Career 140 995 604 7568 37 4.3 54.1
5 yrs WAS 74 579 376 4549 21 5.1 61.5
4 yrs IND 58 349 188 2519 16 3.2 43.4
1 yr SFO 8 67 40 500 0 5 62.5
Kyle Shanahan 34 316 197 2479 9 5.5 69.9

R/G – Receptions per game

The Quarterback Upgrade Factor

Jimmy GaroppoloJimmy Garoppolo appears to be the answer to the quarterback questions the 49ers have had for several years now, assuming they can lock him up long term in the offseason.

Since Garoppolo took over as quarterback the 49ers pass attempts per game dropped from 39 to 35, but their passing yards per game increased from 244 to 312. This means that Garoppolo was more efficient than the combination of Hoyer and Beathard and means the offense was better as a whole.

Another underrated part of Garoppollo’s game is his ability to run, he isn’t going to run for 100 yards like a Cam Newton or a Russell Wilson but he is smart with the football and will surprise defenses with his athletic ability as we saw against the Jaguars in Week 16. Having Garoppolo as the 49ers quarterback will open up things for the offense, more than just what they are able to do from a play-calling standpoint but also how defenses play them. With Hoyer/Beathard at quarterback, defenses realized the 49ers didn’t have the talent to beat them throwing the ball so they keyed in on stopping the run. Because of this approach, some of the 49ers receivers had favorable matchups, even with an incompetent quarterback which is why you were able to see some games where the receivers were fantasy viable. Also, the game script was almost always in the favor of the passing game as they played from behind a lot.

In Weeks 1-12 the 49ers quarterbacks combined for an average stat line of 244 yards, 0.72 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions per game. Once Garoppolo took over in Week 13 he averaged 314 yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 1 interception per game.

So what does that mean for the 49ers receivers?

It means that things are only going to be looking up for whoever lines up for the 49ers next season as the starters. The receiver is a weak spot for the team, but it’s not the weakest spot on the roster or even the offense for that matter. I fully expect that the team makes the offensive line a priority this offseason through free agency and the draft.

Currently, the projected starters going into next year are Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside and Trent Taylor in the slot. Assuming Garcon is able to return from the neck injury that landed him on the IR after only 8 games, he will be the number one receiver.

Dynasty Forecast

If you’re a Garcon Dynasty owner, he is a hold in my opinion. Garcon is still young enough to get solid production, yet old enough to where you won’t be able to get the value he really deserves in return based on the production. However, if you don’t own him he is a “Buy” this offseason. Garcon is coming back to an offense he is familiar with that has had a significant upgrade at the quarterback position. I am fairly confident you could get him at a value price due to the perceived disappointing season he had last year and he will be an every week starter in 2018. My prediction is he is going to be this year’s (2018) Adam Thielen assuming he stays healthy. He averages in three years under Shanahan what Thielen put up this year. He is a solid WR2 who you can get for the price of a back-end WR3 and I will take that value any day.

 

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