Overcoming Early Impressions: Players With ADPs Too Low
Our brains are wired to make quick subconscious judgements within nanoseconds and it takes a lot of time and proof to overturn our initial reactions to people and situations. More often than not those judgments come in handy, like when a ball is flying at your head. Yet sometimes those reactions create a false bias that can take a long time to overturn.
Here are a few players that offer up some nice fantasy value because of poor early impressions that are suppressing their ADP.
Bills Running Back
Just about the time people started thinking about the 2016 fantasy football season, LeSean McCoy gets into a late-night brawl with some cops which is always a bad idea although not surprising given the nickname ‘Shady.’ As soon as the news broke, assumptions about facing jail time and suspension from the NFL were made. According to the New York Daily News, the Philadelphia District Attorney stands by his decision not to press charges, but the Fraternal Order of Police contacted the Pennsylvania Solicitor General to take another look at the case. McCoy still has not been totally exonerated, but at this point it seems likely that he avoids charges and suspension.[the_ad id=”58837″]McCoy’s ADP peaked in early February towards the end of round two on fantasy football calculator, but nose-dived in late February with news of the altercation. His ADP has been in very slow recovery mode ever since. According to MFL10 draft data, McCoy is the 16th RB and the 39th player taken off the board.
That spot puts him behind Thomas Rawls, Matt Forte and CJ Anderson.
McCoy fought injury while playing 12 games on a new team with a new coaching staff and still averaged 4.4 yards on 203 carries for 895 yards while adding 32 receptions for another 292 yards and five total TDS. The Bills came in second in the league with 509 rushes in 2015, but led the league with 152 rushing ypg under Greg Roman’s run heavy offensive scheme. Yes, that’s the same Greg Roman that ran the crap out of the ball in San Francisco.
Looking forward, the Bills are likely to upgrade on the right side of their offensive line who, despite the gaudy looking rushing stats, performed poorly last year. The key skill-position players are returning and this will be the Bills second year under Greg Roman’s offense. Even if Karlos Williams eats into LeSean McCoy’s carries and the Bills decide to force feed Sammy Watkins, Shady should still easily produce at a RB1 clip.
Packers Running Back
We all saw a ballooned Lacy last year. Lacy was still somewhat effective with 5 TDs and almost 1,000 rushing/reception yards, but he sure didn’t look good doing it. The whole Packers offense looked haggard and Eddie Lacy suffered from an obnoxiously obvious struggle with weight, nagging injuries and a do-si-do rotation with James Starks for lead-back duties. Lacy looked like one the safest first-round RBs for the 2015, but his season became a huge disappointment and the fantasy community is still far from forgiving him.
You can’t help but remember watching Lacy lumber down the field with all the grace of a rhino on ice, but he’s lost a ton of weight already under P90X creator Tony Horton’s personal supervision (check out this article with a slimmed down Lacy). Once people see more of Lacy on the field, his ADP is going to jump from its third-round spot. The Packers offense should return to elite status with the return of Jordy Nelson and Lacy could easily match or outperform his 2014 season. This is a contract year for Lacy, which can’t hurt his motivation. Even if he can’t find a home as a RB in 2017, he’ll be an obvious candidate for P90X spokesman. My hunch is he comes back faster and fitter than ever and Green Bay is happy to resign him.
I can only assume that Drew Brees is going as late as he is because of an epically slow start last year. In 2015, fantasy footballers were starting to worry about Drew Brees’ age and roster moves like trading away Jimmy Graham that pointed to a less pass-reliant offense. Everything looked like Brees was taking a step back through the first 7 weeks where Brees managed only 8 passing TDs until Brees exploded for 7 TDs against the Giants in week 8 and never really looked back. In total, Brees threw for more than 300 yards in 10 games and had five games with 3+ TDs. Patient owners were rewarded mightily with Brees last year, but thrifty drafters this year can expect a nice return for 2016.
These are clearly the twilight years of the Drew Brees-Sean Peyton era, but it looks like these two will rage against the night. Brandin Cooks became the stud we all expected him to be once Brees took off last year. Willie Snead is becoming a favorite sleeper this year and Coby Fleener is an athletic upgrade to Ben Watson who turned in a career year last season. Mark Ingram surprised some folks with his pass catching abilities and was one of the best PPR RBs before being placed on IR for a shoulder injury. These are pieces that can help Brees flirt with 5,000 passing yards yet again.
49ers Wide Receiver[the_ad id=”58835″]I’m not sure if this is a poor early impression or no impression at all. Torrey Smith floundered on a 49ers team that was talent deprived down from the coaches to the field. Smith was a highly touted free agent acquisition for the 49ers, but finished a disappointing year with 663 yards on 33 receptions and four TDs. It’s pretty tough to imagine a huge 2016 with the QB situation in San Francisco, but it would be shocking if he didn’t outperform his 135th draft spot.
To give you an idea, that draft spot is behind three rookies who have yet to be drafted, Nelson Agholor, Philip Dorsett, Tavon Austin and one spot behind Calvin Johnson?!?!
Say what you want about Chip Kelly in a front office role, but you can’t deny he creates some great fantasy value on offense. There are not many people who would be excited about having Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert under center, but Chip did make Nick Foles look elite and coax a serviceable season out of Sam Bradford in 2015. During those Chip Kelly years in Philadelphia Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson eclipsed 1,300 yards while Jordan Matthews had a strong rookie campaign and came around towards the end of last season. Smith probably won’t have a 1,300+ yard season, but when Matt Harmon talks up a receiver’s skills on reception perception and an offensive minded coach blows into town, smart drafters should pay attention. Certainly better attention than Colin Kaepernick did here
Eric joined the Navy just before 9/11 and shipped off to boot camp as a Nuclear Engineer in January 2002. He was accepted into an officer program and became a Surface Warfare Officer driving big ships with lots of guns after graduating from The University of Memphis with a degree in Engineering. Eric played fantasy football for years before the Navy, but limited internet access and hectic schedules during multiple deployments made following football closely nearly impossible. Upon returning stateside, Eric started consuming fantasy strategies and analysis to catch back up on the NFL. Not only did Eric catch up, he got hooked and caught the fantasy sickness. Eric separated from the Navy and returned to his hometown of Buffalo, NY to resume his sadistic love of the Bills locally.
In addition to football, Eric loves poker and writing. The lessons Eric learned while reading well over 20 poker books and playing poker avidly often drives his approach to fantasy. As a family man, Eric doesn’t get away to the poker tables nearly enough, but he finds time to pursue his love of writing and fantasy football. Eric specializes in redraft league strategies and loves the complexity of auction drafts