Outplay Formula Week 8
There was no Outplay Formula created for week 7, Gridiron Experts didn’t think it was needed. Most of the games looked like absolute blowouts and fantasy/ pick’em advice with stats seemed redundant. For the most part that was true, but there were a few blue moons that surprised us all, namely the Jaguars on Monday Night.
For those who are new to the Outplay Formula scroll to the bottom for info or download this .PDF info pack
Week 8 Outplay Formula
How To Read The Out Play
***Please note the Outplay is a helpful guide, obvious Fantasy starts and sits should not be overlooked***
The idea behind the outplay formula is that a team or player could be performing better or worse than we might think, based on the opponents they’ve gone up against.The Outplay has been created for the following for each team:
- Overall Outplay Production– A combination of the teams PPG on offense and defense in comparison to all the opponents they have faced. This is used to help pick winners.
- Offensive Passing Outplay– Compares the amount of a teams passing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
- Defensive Passing Outplay– Compares the amount of a teams defensive passing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
- Offensive Rushing Outplay– Compares the amount of a teams rushing yards in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
- Defensive Rushing Outplay– Compares the amount of a teams defensive rushing yards allowed in comparison to the other teams that have faced the same opponents.
The math behind the formula is a bit confusing, but basically you take a teams points per game average on offense and defense and compare it to all of its opponents offensive and defensive PPG. Lets say, for example, DEN is averaging 21 PPG on offense, and has played 5 teams that are allowing an average of only 14 PPG on defense. That means that offensively, DEN is “outplaying” their opponents by 7 PPG. The same principle is applied to defensive points allowed per game and rushing and passing yards per game.
*The best example I can give you is from week 7 of the 2007 season: Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-4)
Baltimore was a 3.5 point favorite, and based on their record many believed that 3.5 points was a steal. Looking back, we now know that Buffalo was a team that made a late season run, while Baltimore fell apart by mid-season. If you looked at BAL’s opponents up until that point it was a walk in the park. BAL had 4 wins from ARZ / STL / SF / NYJ. However, BAL had a shoot-out with ARZ, and could only put up 9 points against the 49er’s in a 9-7 win. Meanwhile, Buffalo had 4 losses to NE / DAL / PIT / DEN. Even though BUF lost these games, they were able to put up decent outplay numbers both offensively and defensively against these tough opponents. Although the schedule could have been different, it was how well each team had performed that the outplay noticed. BAL was struggling against weak teams, and BUF was playing well against strong teams. Due to our outplay formula, we had Buffalo favored by 2 for this week. The final outcome:
BUF 19 BAL 14!