Opportunity Index: Week 11
Recapping Results from Week 10
After each week this season I will dive into my Opportunity Index data and use it to analyze which committee running back you want to own, which wide receiver is due for positive (or negative) regression, which tight ends are in the best positions to succeed, etc. But first, if you don’t know what Opportunity Index you can read more about it here. Get familiar with it because I think it’s one of the most comprehensive, and useful, stats in the industry.
Last week was my first rough week that I can remember this season where almost every pick didn’t pan out as I expected. Well, the only thing you can do is get back up and keep on keepin’ on so let’s dive into the data for Week 11 matchups.
Isaiah Crowell a sneaky start vs. PIT
The weather is looking windy this weekend in Cleveland and with the Steelers generally worse on the road, I think Cleveland keeps it closer than expected. Given that, I love this spot for Isaiah Crowell against a Steelers defense that ranks last in adjusted OI allowed (17.4%) and 21st in adjusted +/- (+0.07) vs. the run. Over the last four weeks, Crowell’s 26.1 percent Team OI Share ranks 17th and he’s been very productive in the passing game with a +/- of +0.14.
Matt Forte getting loads of opportunity
Over the last four weeks, Forte has been back to his workhorse ways and it’s likely due to the instability at the quarterback position. Forte’s 40.3 percent Team OI Share ranks third behind just Melvin Gordon (43.3%) and Le’Veon Bell (42.7%) and his 169.8 percent OI Rating ranks second among running backs with at least 20 snaps per game. The Jets are on a bye week, but it looks as if the quarterback situation hasn’t affected Forte’s fantasy output so send out a couple trade feelers while he’s off for a week.
All the LeGarrette Blount everywhere[the_ad id=”66786″]Daily Fantasy, season long, prop bets, whatever. If you’re betting on Blount doing well you’re making the right bet. We know the bread and butter of the Patriots offense is running through Tom Brady, but when they can get away with a win by leaning on the big, bruising running back they will do it. As 14-points road favorites, don’t be surprised for another multiple TD game from Blount. Over the last four weeks, he ranks second in OI Rating (159.3%), seventh in Team OI Share (35.3%), third in fantasy points per game (20.4), third in rushing +/- (+0.24), and first in Goal Line OI Share (68.7%).
Michael Crabtree in a bounce back spot
Crabtree has been underperforming as of late, but his opportunity is significantly higher than Amari Cooper’s. Over the last four weeks, Crabtree has put up a 147.7 percent OI Rating (Cooper 95.3%), 16.6 percent Team OI Share (Cooper 13.9%), 25.7 percent Red Zone OI Share (Cooper 12.8%), and 6.0 percent Goal Line OI Share (Cooper 6.0%). Where Cooper has been winning is in total snaps (75.0 per game vs. 57.7 per game) and +/- (+0.19 vs. -0.20).
Robert Woods a streaming option
Make sure to watch Woods’ health going into the game, but if he’s suiting up you want a piece of him this Sunday. Woods has easily been the Bills’ top receiver with a 12.8 percent Team OI Share and is getting a lot of usage in the red zone (51.4% Red Zone OI Share). I expect this game to go over its current total of 47.5 so Woods could see a nice target floor.
Start Randall Cobb, Davante Adams over Jordy Nelson
This trio of wide receivers has been on fire as of late and none of them have a clear advantage over the field in terms of opportunity. That said, Nelson (19% Team OI Share) is looking to be matched up against Josh Norman this week so it’s very probable that Aaron Rodgers peppers both Adams (20.2% Team OI Share) and Cobb (13.0% Team OI Share) with targets. One note, Cobb’s 13 percent Team OI Share is lower because he only saw action in three games, but his 18.7% opportunities per snap is the most on the team.
Pivot from Martellus Bennett to Zach Miller or Jack Doyle[the_ad id=”58837″]With Rob Gronkowski potentially out this week, Bennett is receiving a lot of buzz. It’s for good reason because over the last four weeks Gronkowski has an 11.9 percent team OI share and a 13.0 percent team OI share. That’s a lot of opportunity to open up, but there’s more competition for those targets than people are making it out to be. I can see James White, Chris Hogan, and maybe even Dion Lewis cut into that a bit.
Around Bennett’s price on DraftKings you could get Miller, who ranks first overall the last four weeks with a 17 percent team OI share, or Doyle, who ranks fourth with a 15 percent team OI share. Even with Dwayne Allen back in the picture, Doyle out targeted him 9-to-2 in Week 9.
Julius Thomas will score a touchdown this week
The Lions have been terrible all season against tight ends and have allowed a touchdown to the position in every single game. With that information alone you should be on him, but when you also consider that Thomas has seen a 24.0 percent goal line OI share over the last four weeks so Blake Bortles is clearly targeting him near the end zone.
Sit Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona
Over the last four weeks, Rudolph’s opportunity has really plummeted and it should be no surprise that he’s been a borderline TE1 over that stretch. Here’s his breakdown:
- Weeks 1-6: 16% OI share | 25% goal line OI share
- Weeks 7-10: 12% OI share | 4% goal line OI share
You can comfortably bench Rudolph this week as he’s not only trending terribly, but also has a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense that is fourth-toughest in adjusted OI (-38.3%) and second-toughest in adjusted +/- (-2.43) over the last six weeks.[the_ad id=”65749″]
George has been playing fantasy baseball since he was a kid, filling out every Sporting News salary league card, but never sending one in due to his lack of a checking account. He still remembers the time he spot-started Storm Johnson and got a rushing TD out of it. Never forget.