NFL Rookie of the Year Odds
Some people like to bet on Super Bowl winners; others like over/under on team wins. We like rookie-of-the-year odds. It aligns with the fantasy angle, as every fantasy football fan is looking for that rookie that blows the doors off expectations and helps them win the championship. NFL game lines are now live for a number of NFL futures and weekly games for the 2026 season.
Scroll down to see this year’s odds and a super early pick for ROTY
History & Trends of Past Rookie Winners
Position breakdown
- QB: 11 winners (44%)
- RB: 8 winners (32%)
- WR: 6 winners (24%)
QB is the most common winner by a solid margin, which matters given Fernando Mendoza’s presence near the top of this year’s odds board.
The RB drought is real
Saquon Barkley (2018) is the last running back to win the award. That’s a seven-year drought for the position, the longest in this dataset. Since then it’s gone WR-QB-QB-WR-WR-QB-QB (2019-2025). If you’re building an angle around Jeremiyah Love or Jadarian Price as favorites, this trend cuts against them; no RB has broken through since the position group got, on average, more crowded backfields and passing-first offenses across the league.
Longest streak: three straight QBs
2010 (Sam Bradford) → 2011 (Cam Newton) → 2012 (Robert Griffin III) is the only three-year run at a single position in the dataset. Every other position streak tops out at two straight years (RB in 2001-02 and 2017-18; WR in 2021-22; QB again in 2019-20 and 2023-24).
NFC Dominates
18 of the 25 winners (72%) have come from NFC teams, only 7 from the AFC. That’s a lopsided split worth noting if you want a “which conference’s rookies to watch” angle.
Division trends within the NFC
- NFC East and NFC South are tied for the most winners at 5 apiece
- NFC West and NFC North each have 4
- No single AFC division has more than 2
Repeat Franchises
Five teams have produced multiple winners: Giants (2018 Barkley, 2014 Beckham Jr.), Panthers (2025 McMillan, 2011 Newton), Cardinals (2019 Murray, 2003 Boldin), Vikings (2009 Harvin, 2007 Peterson), and Rams (2015 Gurley, 2010 Bradford). Carolina producing back-to-back-ish winners in McMillan and Newton, both under a decade-plus of the same franchise culture, could be a fun standalone angle too.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jeremiyah Love: +475
- Fernando Mendoza: +550
- Carnell Tate: +550
- Jadarian Price: +600
- Makai Lemon: +1400
- De’Zhaun Stribling: +1500
- KC Concepcion: +2000
- Ja’Kobi Lane: +2200
- Carson Beck: +2500
- Denzel Boston: +2500
- Jordyn Tyson: +3500
- Antonio Williams: +3500
- Kenyon Sadiq: +4500
- Germie Bernard: +5000
- Jonah Coleman: +5500
- Nicholas Singleton: +6000
- Eli Stowers: +6000
- Chris Bell: +6000
- Ty Simpson: +6000
- Omar Cooper Jr.: +6000
- Drew Allar: +7000
- Cyrus Allen: +7000
- Kaelon Black: +7500
- Zachariah Branch: +7500
- Demond Claiborne: +7500
- Emmett Johnson: +8000
- Kaytron Allen: +8000
- Malachi Fields: +8000
- Ted Hurst: +8000
- Caleb Douglas: +8000
- Elijah Sarratt: +8000
- Cade Klubnik: +8000
- Brenen Thompson: +9000
- Skyler Bell: +10000
- Max Klare: +10000
Early Rookie Of The Year Pick
Odds +2500
This may seem like recency bias, as Beck was all the buzz after he played very well in the first preseason game of the year, but I would have picked him regardless. The Cardinals may turn to Beck if things don’t start well this season. They are in simi-rebuild mode and didn’t give Jacoby Brissett a long-term deal. Instead, the veteran QB agreed to a reworked one-year contract for the 2026 season worth $15.5 million guaranteed, with incentives that can max out at $21 million. The Cardinals have a lot of great weapons, and may let Beck have the second half of the season to prove to the coaches that he’s the guy, or if the team should draft for the future.
With the trends pointing heavily towards NFC QB’s, and the odds worth the risk, I think Beck is a solid pick for a long-shot winner.
