NFL Wild Card Monday Prop Bets
Welcome to the last game of Super Wild Card Weekend. The Dallas Cowboys go into Tampa Bay, a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under is 45.5, and the Moneyline is -145 for Dallas and +120 for Tampa.
Is it me, or is prop betting more exciting during playoffs? Maybe because the season-long fantasy is over, we have to do something with that money burning in our pockets. Until this season, I was only playing fantasy and DFS, but it was the world cup that got me back into prop betting. I actually really liked gambling on soccer. I found it fun and exciting. Here is where I remind you to gamble responsibly, please.
So here are my three favorite props and my Nemesis bet. I will never give up and never surrender. Also, for obvious reasons, I am ignoring Week 18 games.
Tom Brady’s Passing Attempts are 42.5 over -115 and under -115
There are only four games where Brady has not attempted at least 42.5 passing attempts. One of those games includes the Week 1 matchup with Dallas. Brady attempted 27 passes in that game, and the Bucs won 19-3.
We know the Cowboys will push the Buccaneers way more than they did in Week 1. The implied total for this game is 23.75 points for the Cowboys and 20.75 points for the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers pass on 66.70% of their offensive plays, first in the league. Brady’s last three games (not counting Week 18), he has 45, 48, and 44 passing attempts.
- Bet over 42.5 passing attempts for Brady
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards are 48.5 over -120 and under -110
We know that regardless of how much better Tony Pollard is, the Cowboys will lean on Elliott. In his last three games (excluding Week 18), Elliott has rushed for 37 yards on 19, 55 yards on 16 attempts, and 58 yards on 16.
The days of fearing the Buccaneers’ “elite rushing defense” are in the rearview mirror. The Buccaneers’ opponents have rushed an average of 26.9 times per game. The Buccaneers’ defense is giving up 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 120.7 rushing yards per game.
The Cowboys will want to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. Hello Zeke.
- Bet over Elliott’s 48.5 rushing yards
Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards 38.5 over -120 and under-110
Schultz is second on the team in targets percentage (16%), surpassed by only Cee Dee Lamb.
The Buccaneers’ defense has given up an average of 50.6 receiving yards to the tight end position. In their first meeting, Schultz has 62 receiving yards. And in his 12 games with Prescott on the field, Schultz has only missed 38.5 receiving yards four times.
- Bet over Schultz’s 38.5 receiving yards
In the Buccaneers’ nine home games, their opponent has scored a touchdown first five times, and all have been passing touchdowns. When the Buccaneers scored first at home, it was two Leonard Fournette rushing touchdowns, one Russell Gage passing touchdown, and one Julio Jones passing touchdown.
In the Cowboys’ seven away games, the Cowboys have scored a touchdown the first five times. Three were Elliott’s rushing, one was a defensive touchdown, and one was Lamb receiving.
The Cowboys lead the NFL in touchdown percentage (71.4%). The Buccaneers’ allow the opponents to score 62.5% of their drives that reach the 20-yard line.
- First-time touchdown Tony Pollard
- Anytime touchdown Ezekiel Elliott
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.