Daily Fantasy

NFL Saturday Night Showdown Texans vs Colts

devin singletary

Saturday Night Showdown

So, we’ve made it to Week 18. And while there is no Thursday Night Showdown, we have been rewarded with our patience for a Saturday Night Showdown between two teams slugging it out to make the playoffs. The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts just need to “win, baby”. It would help if the Jacksonville Jaguars don’t win…but these two teams know the path to the playoff is in their hands.

Saturday night, we get rookie sensation C.J. Stroud against journeyman Gardner Minshew. We get rookie head coaches, the Colts’ Shane Steichen versus the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans.

WHAT’S AT STAKE

The playoff scenario for both teams is laid out. The Texans will clinch the AFC South title with a win, Jaguars loss, or tie. The Texans can also clinch a playoff berth with a win. Or if the Texans tie and the Jaguars lose, and the Pittsburgh Steelers tie or lose.

The Colts will clinch the AFC South title with a win Saturday night and a Jaguars loss or tie. The Colts can also clinch if they tie the Texans and the Jaguars lose. The Colts will clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie and the Steelers with a loss or tie. Have you got it?

Here is the deal: The Steelers play the early game on Saturday, so that piece of the puzzle will be solved before the Texans play the Colts. The Jaguars play the early game on Sunday. So, if the Texans win, they won’t care what the Jaguars do. But if the Colts win, all eyes will be on the Jaguars v Tennessee Titans matchup Sunday.

Odds

The lines are from Bovada sportsbook on Thursday afternoon.

  • Spread: Texans -1.5 (-110)
  • Total: over/under 47.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Texans -122; Colts +102

THE FIRST MEETING WEEK 2

This game is a rematch of the Week 2 game. In that meeting, the Colts’ started rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who left the game with an injury. Minshew came in and threw 19-for-23, 171 yards and one touchdown. The Colts were without running back Jonathan Taylor. Zack Moss led the Colts’ rushing attack, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt for 88 yards and one touchdown. Wide receiver Michael Pittman led the receiving corps with 12 targets, eight receptions, and 56 yards.

Stroud threw for 384 yards on 47 attempts and 30 completions. He had two passing touchdowns. The rushing attack was unmemorable. Dameon Pierce had 15 rushing attempts for 31 yards, and Devin Singletary had four for 14 yards. Neither had a touchdown. Nico Collins led the receivers with nine targets, seven receptions for 146 yards, and a touchdown. Tank Dell led in targets with 10. He also had seven receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN GAME

This game projects to be different. Taylor is back for the Colts. Dell is gone for the Texans. Saturday will be their second game after clearing concussion protocol for both Pittman and Stroud. Singletary has taken over the running back room for the Texans. Last week, he had 58% of the rushing attempts, with 18 attempts to Pierce’s eight.

Expect a healthy dose of Collins. He has a 21.9% target share, 28.3% red zone target share, and 75.8% route participation. Although he averages 16.1 fantasy points per game, this number is skewed because the home versus away splits are unbalanced. At home, Collins has 27.6, 35.8, 23.4, and 34.1 fantasy points. His highest fantasy points on the road came in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, where he scored 14.0.

The silver lining is that the Colts have allowed three wide receivers in their past five games to score at least 16.2 fantasy points. The list is Pittsburgh Steelers’ Diontae Johnson, 16.2; DeAndre Hopkins, 18.9; and Davante Adams, 37.6.

While the Colts have Taylor back, temper your expectations. The Texans are tied for third for the fewest rushing yards allowed per game (88.5). The Texans have allowed an average of 57.7 rushing yards per game in the last three weeks.

In his nine games, Taylor has averaged 61.4 rushing yards per game. He has six rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown.

Pittman is fifth in target share (30.7%) with a 30.2% red zone target share. He has a 100% route participation rate, and his 6.9 average receptions per game is sixth. Last week, Pittman led the Colts with seven targets, but Alec Pierce led the team with one reception for 58 yards and a touchdown on one target.

PROP BETS

These prop bets and the odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook on Thursday afternoon. Check around for your best props and odds.

Gardner Minshew Over 240.5 passing yards (-115)

This bet is projecting the game will be over. Minshew has thrown 224, 201, 215, and 240 yards in his last four games. The Texans have given up 178 (combo Ryan Tannehill/Will Levis), 386 (Joe Flacco), 199 (Will Levis), and 301 (Zack Wilson) in their last four games.

Michael Pittman Over 79.5 receiving yards (-115)

If Minshew is going over, someone has to be the beneficiary. Why not the man with a 30.7% target share?

Game Line: Over 47.5 (110)

The first meeting was a 20-31 affair, with the Colts coming out on top. That was without Taylor and Pittman having a subpar day (eight receptions for 56 yards and no touchdown). Singletary and Pierce combined for 55 rushing yards, and neither scored. I fully expect Pittman and Singletary to at least get in on the scoring action in this one.

DFS: PLAYING THE GAME

This week, FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo will allow you to cash in on the Saturday games. This specific article is specific to DraftKings. The difference is in the scoring system. DraftKings has a PPR scoring system with bonus points given to the quarterback, wide receiver, and running backs. Each position can get three bonus points. The quarterback gets his for passing for 300+ yards. The running back and wide receivers get their three points if they rush or receive for 100+ yards.

The DraftKings Showdown Tournament requires you to roster six players. At least one of these players must come from the opposing team. You must also designate one player to be in the Captain’s spot. The Captain’s salary is increased by 1.5. He also has his fantasy points increased by 1.5.

Remember, when playing DFS, it is the game script and more so in the Showdown Tournaments. Here are a few things to remember: Pocket quarterbacks typically need two of their pass catchers to be relevant in the Captain’s spot. If you put a wide receiver in the Captain’s spot, he isn’t getting there without his quarterback. But it is possible and more probable that he gets there without two or more pass catchers from his team.

It also makes a difference if you are playing single-entry GPP or multi-entry. In a single-entry tournament, you will get your only shot at predicting the right game script. Therefore, you will be slightly less adventurous in your line-up construction. In multiple entries, you have many chances to predict the game script and get as adventurous as your mind will let you.

CAPTAIN’S SPOT

Whether you are playing single or multi-entry, the Captain’s spot in this game is a tight group. Both teams have funnel offenses.

QB, C.J. Stroud, $16,800:  Stroud is the most expensive player on the board. Stroud has hit over 20.0 DraftKings points in seven of the 14 games he has played. In their last meeting, he had 25.5.

WR, Nico Collins, $15,600: That is a hefty price for someone with Collins home versus away splits. But DraftKings is a PPR format, and with Noah Brown ruled out and Robert Woods injured, Collins could see a major uptake in targets.

WR, Michael Pittman, $15,300: Pittman had 13.6 DraftKings points in their last meeting. In the 14 games he has played, he has surpassed 20 DraftKings points four times.

RB, Jonathan Taylor, $15,000: Last week, Taylor had 21 rushing attempts with a touchdown and missed the 100-yard bonus by four yards. But he did have one target for eight yards. He finished with 17.4 DraftKings points. His DraftKings salary has decreased by $1,400.

QB, Gardner Minshew, $14,400: Minshew has scored over 20 DraftKings points three times this season. His passing attempts have been uneven, with a high of 55 (against Jacksonville) and a low of 23 (against Cleveland).

RB, Devin Singletary, $12,600: Singletary has been held under 100 total yards in five of his last six games. He ran for 121 against Tennessee in Week 15, only to follow that up with 44 yards the next week against Cleveland. He is averaging 52.2 rushing yards per game.

FLEX

WR, Josh Downs, $6,600: Downs will most likely face the Texans’ Desmond King, who has a Pro Football Focus’ 79.4 coverage grade.

WR, Alec Pierce, $6,200: Pierce’s ability to make big plays may get him there for you. He is the definition of boom-or-bust.

TE, Dalton Schultz, $5,800: It will be tempting to give Schultz some Captain consideration if Woods and Brown cannot go. Schultz is on the receiving end of a 16.9% target share and 74.7% route participation.

WR, Robert Woods, $5,400: Monitor his health status. He left early last week with a hip injury.

WR, John Metchie III, $1,000: If Woods and Brown are ruled out, Metchie will step in as WR2. Last week, he had a season-high 37 snaps.

WR, Xavier Hutchinson, $800: If Woods and Brown are out, you could benefit from the pricing as both will be on the field in three-wide sets. Last week, Hutchinson had one red zone target and was on the field for 26 offensive snaps.

THE OTHERS

Kickers and defenses are always an option. The defenses aren’t looking good in a game with 47.5 total and only a 1.5 difference.

The game is indoors, so either kicker is an option with plenty of scoring.

K, Ka’imi Fairbairn, $5,000: He is 26 of 27 on field goal attempts for the season with 19 extra point kicks.

K, Matt Gay, $4,800: Gay is the eighth-ranked kicker. He has double-digit fantasy points in Weeks 17, 15 and 13.

Good Luck! Play nice! Happy New Year!

 

INJURIES

COLTS

  • Zack Moss, RB, Forearm, Limited
  • Branden Smith, OT, Knee, Limited
  • Kenny Moore II, CB, Back, Limited
  • Quenton Nelson, OG, Ankle, DNP

TEXANS

  • Noah Brown, WR, Back, DNP
  • Robert Woods, WR, Hip, DNP
  • Andrew Beck, FB, Calf, DNP
  • Laremy Tunsil, OT, Groin, DNP
  • Jonathan Greenard, DE, Ankle, DNP
  • Will Anderson Jr., DE, Ankle, DNP
  • Sheldon Rankins, DT, Ankle, DNP
  • Maliek Collins, DT, Hip, DNP
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