NFL Divisional Round Preview
The NFL Wild Card round delivered a few dramatic finishes last week, and now the divisional round brings four matchups that will determine which teams advance to championship weekend. The top seeds in both conferences make their postseason debuts after earning first-round byes, while six wild-card winners look to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
The Buffalo Bills travel to Denver for a rematch of last season’s Wild Card round, when they dominated the Broncos 31-7 in Orchard Park. This time, the setting is different. The Broncos finished 14-3 to claim the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver’s defense recorded 68 sacks during the regular season, the fifth-most in NFL history, and allowed just 18.3 points per game. Quarterback Bo Nix threw for 3,931 yards in his second season under head coach Sean Payton.
Buffalo enters at 12-5 after defeating Jacksonville 27-24 in the Wild Card round. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 273 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in that victory. The Bills rushed for a season-low 79 yards against the Jaguars’ top-ranked run defense. Running back James Cook led the NFL’s best rushing attack during the regular season with 1,621 yards. The Bills have won eight of their last nine meetings with Denver and are 8-1 against the spread in those games.
The Broncos enjoyed a first-round bye after winning their final two games to secure the conference’s best record. Denver ranked second in the league in total defense during the regular season at 278.2 yards per game. The pass rush generates 4.0 sacks per game. The Broncos forced just 14 turnovers during the regular season, fewer than one per game, and the fewest among playoff teams.
Buffalo’s defense ranked seventh overall but 28th against the run. The Bills allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game. They held the advantage in passing defense, allowing the fewest passing yards per game at 156.9. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit will attempt to disrupt Allen, who has struggled when sacked frequently. Buffalo lost six straight games when Allen was sacked four or more times.
The odds for this game surprised me. I know both teams have solid defenses, but some of the best online sports betting sites have the total points for this game set at just 46. Josh Allen and the rest of the Broncos team should not have an issue scoring points in this one. I feel the score will be similar to the Bills game last week against the Jaguars, in the 50-point range.
The game could be decided by Denver’s ability to establish the run against Buffalo’s vulnerable run defense and by whether the Broncos’ pass rush can force Allen into difficult situations. Buffalo’s experience in high-pressure playoff games contrasts with Denver’s first home playoff game since January 2016. The altitude and crowd noise at Empower Field could factor into the outcome.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, 8:00 PM ET
Division rivals meet for the third time this season with a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line. The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19 in the Wild Card round despite losing tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles in the first half. Quarterback Brock Purdy engineered a game-winning drive, hitting Christian McCaffrey with a 4-yard touchdown pass with 2:54 remaining. The 49ers finished 12-5 and earned the sixth seed after tying for second in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams.
The Seattle Seahawks clinched the NFC’s top seed by defeating San Francisco 13-3 in Week 18. That victory gave Seattle home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. First-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense held the 49ers to a season-low 173 total yards and three points in that matchup. Seattle’s defense ranked first in scoring during the regular season. The Seahawks won the season finale to cap a remarkable turnaround after the 49ers won the Week 1 meeting 17-13 at Lumen Field.
San Francisco’s offense will need to adjust without Kittle, who caught 72 passes during the regular season. Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson stepped up in the Wild Card victory with six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey rushed for two scores in that game. The 49ers went 8-2 on the road during the regular season. They have played three games on short rest over the past four weeks, including last week.
Seattle’s quarterback Sam Darnold completed 20 of 26 passes for 198 yards in the Week 18 victory over San Francisco. He avoided costly mistakes while the defense dominated. The Seahawks’ interior pressure, led by defensive lineman Leonard Williams, disrupted Purdy throughout that game. Seattle will host its first playoff game with fans in attendance since 2017. The 12th Man at Lumen Field creates one of the league’s most difficult environments for visiting teams.
The matchup features two teams intimately familiar with each other’s schemes. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will need to find ways to move the ball without Kittle against a defense that limited San Francisco to nine first downs in their last meeting. The 49ers’ defense must contain Seattle’s rushing attack and force Darnold into longer third-down situations. The team that makes halftime adjustments most effectively could gain the decisive edge.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
The Houston Texans dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 on Monday night to earn the franchise’s first road playoff victory. Houston’s defense sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and held Pittsburgh to 175 total yards. Defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins returned a fumble 33 yards for a touchdown, and safety Calen Bullock added a 50-yard interception return for a score. The Texans finished the regular season winning their final nine games after an 0-3 start. They ranked first in total defense during the regular season.
New England earned the AFC’s second seed at 14-3 after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the wild card round. The Patriots’ defense sacked Justin Herbert six times and kept the Chargers out of the end zone. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw for 268 yards and rushed for 66 more in his first career playoff start. The Patriots are in the divisional round for the first time since 2018. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s defense has held opponents to 20 points or fewer six times in the last eight games.
Houston’s offense scored two touchdowns against Pittsburgh, though one came in garbage time. Quarterback C.J. Stroud committed three turnovers and appeared unsettled for much of the game. The Texans ranked 19th in offensive efficiency during the regular season and averaged 23.8 points per game. Former Patriots position coach Nick Caley coordinates Houston’s offense. The Texans have not allowed more than 16 points in five straight road games.
The Patriots’ defense has improved significantly late in the season. New England held the Chargers to fewer than 210 total yards in the wild card round. Maye showed poise in his playoff debut and displayed his dual-threat ability. The Patriots did not light up the scoreboard but controlled the game with defense and field position. They ranked 12th in scoring defense at 21.5 points per game during the regular season.
The game could be decided by whether Houston’s elite defense can contain Maye or if New England’s pass rush can rattle Stroud again. The Patriots will attempt to establish the run while the Texans look to force turnovers and create short fields. Cold January weather at Gillette Stadium could affect both offenses. This marks the third time these franchises have met in the divisional round.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
The Los Angeles Rams survived a wild finish in Carolina, defeating the Panthers 34-31 as quarterback Matthew Stafford hit tight end Colby Parkinson with a 19-yard touchdown pass with 38 seconds remaining. Stafford threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. The Rams finished 12-5 and led the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game during the regular season. Stafford led the NFL in passing yards and touchdown throws at age 37. Wide receivers Davante Adams and Puka Nacua provide a dynamic threat on the outside.
The Chicago Bears rallied from an 18-point halftime deficit to stun the Green Bay Packers 31-27 in the wild card round. Quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 184 yards in the fourth quarter alone, outgaining his total from the first three quarters. The comeback marked the third-largest fourth-quarter rally in playoff history. The Bears finished the regular season as the NFC’s second seed under first-year head coach Ben Johnson. They lost starting left tackle Ozzy Trapilo to a patellar injury against the Packers.
Los Angeles ranks first in scoring offense and 10th in scoring defense. Head coach Sean McVay’s innovative play-calling has created one of the league’s most explosive attacks. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula has generated buzz as a head coaching candidate. His unit allowed 20.4 points per game during the regular season. The Rams went 5-5 against the spread on the road and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to advance past Carolina.
Chicago’s offense under Johnson features the developing connection between the play-calling head coach and Williams. The Bears won seven games by comeback this season, including six in the regular season. Williams showed composure in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, leading three scoring drives to erase the deficit. Tight end Colston Loveland emerged as a key weapon with eight catches for 137 yards in the wild card victory. The Bears struggled in their regular season finale, losing to Detroit.
The matchup features two of the game’s most innovative offensive minds in McVay and Johnson. Both quarterbacks have shown the ability to engineer late-game heroics. The Rams and Bears were both in contention for the NFC’s top seed late in the season before each lost critical games. Chicago’s defense must find ways to slow Stafford while the Rams look to pressure Williams. Soldier Field’s conditions in January could affect both passing games. The team that wins the trenches on both sides of the ball will likely advance to the conference championship.
