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NFL Picks: Week Two

NFL Picks

Gridiron Experts is a fantasy football advisory website first and foremost, but we enjoying picking games. Last season, Darren Collette was the Gridiron Experts ATS pick’em champ with a 136-116 record. Below are his thoughts on how week two could unfold.

Gridiron Experts NFL PicksNFL Picks: Week Two

Gridiron Experts is a fantasy football advisory website first and foremost, but we enjoying picking games. Last season, Darren Collette was the Gridiron Experts ATS pick’em champ with a 136-116 record. Below are his thoughts on how week two could unfold.

In week one, Darren, Jason Johnson and Mike Rigz tied for the GX ATS picks lead with 11-5 records. Darren also went 11-5 in outright picks.

See all our NFL picks for week two here.

 

In the regular season, Carolina’s defense has not allowed any team to score over 20 points on its field since 2012. That streak is very much at risk against the high-powered and upgraded Lions. Even if they keep Detroit under 20, one must wonder if the Panthers’ unimpressive offense can top 20 themselves. The anticipated return of Cam Newton should help, but I think overall the Lions are too strong. Detroit 20, Carolina 16 (line CAR -1)

In this unexpected match-up of 1-0 teams, we can expect a lot of rushing. In week one, Miami ran 38 times and Buffalo 33 times. Considering Miami might be missing all three of its starting LBs, there is good reason to like Buffalo. However, the Dolphins defensive line is still a real force and might get to E.J. Manuel. I think Ryan Tannehill can be the difference here and Miami will be the stronger overall team. I picked against my hometown team last week and it burned me. While this is very close, I like the Dolphins in this one. Miami 27, Buffalo 22 (line BUF -1)

If not for an NFL game continuing after halftime, the Jaguars just upset the Eagles 17-0. However, that’s not the case and Jacksonville got the beat down most people expected… after halftime. Washington is a team that can never seem to keep it together, yet seems safe in a home-opener against one of the league’s most historically weak teams. Chad Henne is underrated and has a pretty strong young cast of WRs. Keep in mind the Jacksonville defense sacked Nick Foles 5 times. They will get to RG3. This is a tough pick and should be close, but I like the points and can go both ways here. Honestly, I think this will be close. Washington 23, Jacksonville 20 (line WAS -7)

In possibly the biggest shock of week one, Tennessee went into Kansas City and picked-up a decisive win. Now, Tennessee is at home against a Dallas team that is coming off a bad home loss to the 49ers. The Titans’ defense is fairly underrated. They can get under Tony Romo’s skin. He’s mistake prone and just throw 3 picks last week. The Cowboys’ were 3-5 on the road last season and I don’t see that number changing this season. Jake Locker is also underrated and is 5-3 since 2013. Tennessee 26, Dallas 20 (line TEN -1)

Even with one catch by Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals picked up a MNF win. What might be bad news for Fitz owners is actually good news for Carson Palmer. He has lots of targets he can look to. Don’t let the 18 point showing fool you, this team will have some high-scoring games and will finish the year averaging a point total in the 20s. The Giants were not so lucky on MNF and got dominated by Detroit. While the home team is always tempting and the Giants have won three of its last four meetings with Arizona, I just think the Cardinals are the better all-around team. Arizona 27, Giants 19 (line NYG -2)

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Saturday Edit: Take away Adrian Peterson and the Vikings are not the same team, or at least the one I picked to beat New England 31-30. Matt Asiata has an impossible pair of shoes to fill. There is only one AP and he’s the reason why a defense cannot focus on Cordarrelle Patterson. The Patriots will take their chances with Asiata. While the Vikings did just fine at shutting down Shaun Hill and Austin Davis, they get Tom Brady and a much more dangerous receiving core for the home-opener. Without AP, the Vikings will be a more one-dimensional team with three solid targets to rely on. I think the Patriots will bounce back and get the win. New England 30, Minnesota 23 (line NE -5)

Quick math riddle for you… If New Orleans was 8-0 at home last year, but finished the season 11-5, what was the Saints road record? Yeah, the Saints don’t travel very well. Still, the Browns are not a team most fear and could enter this game missing three key players. Almost everyone knows Josh Gordon is out for the season (or is he? wink wink), but now Ben Tate has a bad knee and has been ruled out too. Jordan Cameron is also day-to-day with a shoulder injury and looks iffy. The only electric player Cleveland has left is Johnny Manziel and he’s still Brian Hoyer’s apprentice on the side line. The Browns will not be able to keep pace with the Saints in this one. New Orleans 34, Cleveland 23 (line NO -6)

Both of these teams are coming in off narrow wins over tough teams. Matt Ryan was very impressive in last week’s win over the Saints as he passed for 448 yards and 3 TDs. Andy Dalton was not as great in week one and six Bengals’ drives ended with field goal attempts. However, he did hit A.J. Green deep late for the game-winning TD. This one could be close, but I think Atlanta is the better team and is very hard to stop when at full strength. Atlanta 27, Cincinnati 20 (line CIN -4)

Dog of the week? Perhaps… Both of these teams had a poor showing in week one. St. Louis is a wreck right now. Due to Shaun Hill being questionable, the Rams might need to turn to third-string QB Austin Davis. Add to that DE Chris Long going out 8-10 weeks due to an ankle injury and the writing is on the wall. With a weaker pass rush, the Rams will not get as many shots in on Josh McCown and he’ll have more time to find his huge WRs, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. The Rams are weak enough that we are suggesting you sit two of their top offensive players this week. You need to go with the Bucs at home here. Tampa 20, St. Louis 13 (line TB -4)

The world champs looked great as they dropped Green Bay by 20 to open the season. True, that was a home game, but I think this year Seattle will be nearly as good on the road. The Seahawks should improve on, or match, an already impressive 6-2 road record from last season. Philip Rivers can be rattled and while he only throw one INT last week, 5 of his passes were deflected. Rivers actually passed his career-high of 455 yards in his last match-up with the Seahawks, but that was in 2010. I don’t think I can pick against any Seahawks team with a healthy Percy Harvin. Seattle 26, San Diego 15 (line SEA -4)

If teams want to avoid any opening-game, it must be the one that involves going on the road to face the Super Bowl champs on Thursday Night Football. However, that’s card the Packers were dealt and they are now 0-1. The Lambeau faithful are looking forward to Aaron Rodgers playing a full season and he gets his home start against the Jets. Last week the Jets played well at home and knocked-off a weak Raiders squad. The Jets have a strong defense and Geno Smith is showing signs that he can be a dangerous duel threat QB. Still, I think Green Bay will get back on its feet, get a nice win over the Jets and even cover. Green Bay 27, Jets 13 (line GB -10)

Kansas City went 9-0 to start last season, went into the bye week and came out with a loss at Denver. It has been all downhill since then for the Chiefs. With an embarrassing 26-10 home loss to the Titans last week, KC is really in for an uphill battle against the Broncos’ high-powered offense and improved defense. Add the fact that the Chiefs lost both star LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito for the season and this could not be much worse. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning and has a number of offensive weapons in his arsenal. I see this being a blowout. Denver 35, Kansas City 16 (line DEN -9)

Hey, last year Houston started 2-0 and it’s not like they are any worse this year. Yes, Jadeveon Clowney is out, but with a healthy J.J Watt and Brain Cushing to lead the defense they should be okay. Add to that the fact that Arian Foster is also healthy and it looks fairly good for the Texans. The Raiders will be starting rookie Derek Carr again and while he played well against the Jets, I think as a team the Raiders are a little outmatched here. If you combine the yardage gained in each of their last games against the Raiders, Foster (133), Andre Johnson (116) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (320 with the Titans) gained 569 yards. Houston 22, Oakland 16 (line Hou-3)

If I had to pick one safe, sure-fire pick it would be the 49ers this week. I mean, it’s a team that just won in Dallas and is going to be regular-season debuting an all-new Stadium in primetime… against a team that just lost its home-opener to the Bills! While that’s in no way a stat, I find it to be a nice set of facts. The Bears are awful against the run, ranked last in 2013 and allowed the Bills nearly 200 yards in week one. The 49ers can run it down their throat and Colin Kaepernick also looked pretty good in the passing game last week. San Francisco 30, Chicago 19 (line SF -7)

The Colts are one of the most resilient teams in the NFL. Andrew Luck never goes down without a fight, as he did in Denver last week. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked great when they started the season in the third quarter last week. This is a tricky pick, but the Colts are at home and at full strength. While Trent Richardson is still is not looking like he was worth a first-round draft pick, Ahmad Bradshaw is healthy and was the GX choice as the #2 overall waiver wire pick-up of week two. The Colts are my pick. Good Monday Night and good Luck! Indianapolis 27, Philadelphia 20 (line IND -3)

Fun fact: PHI@IND is the only dome game of week two and without any byes, Sunday has none.

 

See all our NFL Picks for Week Two Here

 

 

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