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NFL Picks: Week 7


Free NFL Pick’em: Week Seven

NFL PicksRoad teams continue to play well in the NFL. Last week, five of the seven road favorites won. This week, four road teams are favored on Sunday, and three teams look like safe picks. The Patriots -3, the Rams -10, and the Vikings -4 are all favored, and all three teams have played well the last few weeks. Week seven has its share of close matchups, so you need to focus on how teams stack up against each other based on their strengths.

Our staff NFL Pick’em is going well. The entire staff is above .500 in straight up pick’em. I am currently leading the straight-up pick’em with a record of 60-31-2. Brad Castronovo has taken the outright lead in ATS picks with a record of 50-43.

  • Keep up with the staff picks by clicking here.

 

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Tennessee at L.A. Chargers

Spread: L.A. Chargers -7

Mariota continues to struggle behind an offensive line that looked horrendous last week against the Ravens. The Tennessee running game has been sub-par as well. They are averaging 3.7 YPC which is bottom 5 in the league. Combine the air and rush attacks of the Titans and you wind up with the 30th ranked offense in the league… Tennessee is only better than the Bills and Cardinals on offense. The Chargers have the 7th ranked offense in the league. Take the Chargers with confidence.

My Pick: L.A. Chargers 30-16

Buffalo at Indianapolis

Spread: Indianapolis -7.5

The spread on this game seems excessive considering the Colts are 1-5 and have played anything other than inspiring football. Indianapolis has fallen behind early in recent games as they have trailed at halftime in 4 straight. They need some help in the running game and I think they have found it. Marlon Mack looked good in his return last week and he will help the Colts become a more two-dimensional offense but, it won’t be easy against a Bills front that has allowed a minuscule 3.8 YPC to opposing backfields. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson who has shown some competence at times during his NFL career, and I expect Buffalo to keep this game closer than the line suggests.

My Pick: Indianapolis 31-24

Carolina at Philadelphia

Spread: Philadelphia -5

Cam Newton has now accounted for 12 of the 13 Carolina offensive touchdowns on the season, very similar to Russell Wilson’s 2017 campaign. The difference is the 2018 Panthers can actually run the ball and their QB likes to finish off the drive with a Superman score. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia boasts the number two rush defense in the NFL. They have allowed only 79.8 YPG on the ground. It will be interesting to see if the Birds can contain the ground game of Carolina.

My Pick: Philadelphia 30-24

Cleveland at Tampa Bay

Spread: Tampa Bay -3

Jameis Winston is now the captain of the number 1 passing attack in the NFL. Winston is talented but, turnovers have always been an issue for him. If he can protect the ball better than the rookie starting across from him, then the Bucs should be able to win. Cleveland will need to key in on the Bucs passing attack as the running game for Tampa is almost nonexistent. Until Cleveland can put together a clean game, I am staying away.

My Pick: Tampa Bay 28-24

Detroit at Miami

Spread: Detroit -3

The Dolphins continue to win games that they shouldn’t. They are three-point underdogs at home and they are starting a backup quarterback. The secondary in Miami has at least one interception in every game and they lead the league with 11 interceptions on the season. Miami will need more interceptions in this game if they plan to take down Matt Stafford and company. Stafford has a passer rating of 113.2 on the road this season with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. FPI gives the Dolphins a 51% chance of winning this game so I am going to ride them one more time.

My Pick: Miami 27-23

Houston at Jacksonville

Spread: Jacksonville -5.5

After an embarrassing loss in Dallas, I expect the Jaguars defense to wake up in this one. Blake Bortles will also need to wake up if he wants to keep his defense fresh. Jadeveon Clowney had some unkind words for Blake last year, and I suspect that both teams are well aware of what was said. The Texans have played some ugly football and they scraped out wins in the last few weeks. They won’t be as fortunate this week, as the Jags make teams pay when they make mistakes.

My Pick: Jacksonville 30-24

Minnesota at N.Y. Jets

Spread: Minnesota -4

If you haven’t heard Kirk’s pregame speech from last week, you’re missing out. You like that? I like that! He sounds focused, and the troops are rallying behind him. The Vikings are rounding into mid-season form and I expect their defense to feast on Sam Darnold. I am sure the Vikings don’t want to let a rookie embarrass them after what Josh Allen did to them. The Jets have been electric for two straight weeks offensively. They played two struggling defenses… This week is a different story.

My Pick: Minnesota 26-21

New England at Chicago

Spread: New England -3

After a head-scratching loss in week six, the Bears look to rebound at home. Chicago outplayed Miami, but they made key mistakes in the most crucial spots. That’s a recipe for disaster and it can’t happen when the Patriots come knocking. New England has been dominant offensively and in large part because of the emergence of Sony Michel. Michel has had three straight solid games and has scored in all three. I think the Patriots find a way to keep Sony chugging along against this stout Bears run defense. Chicago’s run defense has allowed zero rushing touchdowns this season, that will change on Sunday.

My Pick: New England 27-20

New Orleans at Baltimore

Spread: Baltimore -2

The Ravens should all be in jail after what they did to the Titans last week. The Ravens sacked Mariota 11 times! Baltimore will be tested this week against the NFL’s 3rd best offense. Drew Brees is coming to town and this game is circled on his schedule. Brees is looking to become the third quarterback in NFL history to win against every other NFL team. He is 0-4 lifetime against the Ravens. I liked Baltimore in this one, but Drew Brees has been breaking records this year, and I am sure he’ll join some elite company this week (Manning and Favre are the only two quarterbacks to beat every team).

My Pick: New Orleans 27-24

Dallas at Washington

Spread: Washington -2

Dallas has won six of seven against Washington, and four in a row. The Cowboys exploded last week on the Jaguars and I hope to see them carry some of that momentum into this game. This matchup features two top-5 defenses and two bottom-8 offenses. It should be a low scoring slugfest and I like the Cowboys in that sort of matchup. Washington has been inconsistent all season and I don’t feel comfortable betting on a team that may or may not show up.

My Pick: Dallas 19-16

L.A. Rams at San Francisco

Spread: L.A. Rams -10

Ten-point dogs at home? The 49ers are getting no love for their almost-upset last Monday. Last year, San Francisco gave the Rams a run for their money when these two played in the Bay. Jared Goff is on fire and Todd Gurley can’t be stopped which means the Rams will win. However, I won’t be surprised if the 49ers cover in a high-scoring shootout, behind the cannon of C.J. Beathard!

My Pick: L.A. Rams 34-27

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Spread: Kansas City -6.5

I really expected the Bengals to change last week against the Steelers. Turns out they are just the same old Bengals. Cincinnati just doesn’t do well against elite teams, and now they have to play another one on Sunday night. Dalton is 6 and 13 in night games. We’ll see if Dalton can keep up with the high flying Chiefs. Kansas City is averaging 35.8 points a game. Pair that number with the fact that the Bengals struggle to get off of the field defensively. Cincinnati allows their opponents to convert on 53 percent of their 3rd downs which is 31st in the NFL.

My Pick: Kansas City 34-31

N.Y. Giants at Atlanta

Spread: Atlanta -5

New York is terrible. They are a mess on and off of the field. The only bright spot for the Giants is Saquon Barkley, who continues to amaze. He is on pace for more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns. The Giants will score against the Falcons’ depleted defense, but the G-men just aren’t good at winning games. Atlanta is 2-4 this year but they can climb right back into the mix with a big win on Monday night.

My Pick: Atlanta 33-24

Eliminator/Survival Suggestions

  • Chargers
  • Falcons
  • Chiefs

 

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Good Luck

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